Guidance financial group “VTB” made an optimistic economic Outlook for the second half of 2016. According to economists, since the fall of macroeconomic indicators will start to improve, and inflation will decline.
“The forecast for the near future – optimistic, – said the head of VTB Andrey Kostin. – GDP growth should recover in 2017 with a real rate of 2 percent per year, the average price of oil set at 55 – 60 dollars for barrel, and inflation will fall from thirteen to four to five percent.”
“This forecast can be tolerated only with a caveat: if the price of oil will rise, commented BAFS “the Economy today” the Professor of the Higher school of Economics, leading researcher of the IMEMO (RAS Alexey Portansky. – Otherwise optimistic predictions difficult. Personally I do not see other factors that can affect GDP growth and reduce inflation”.
Earlier, analysts of the oil market told: after a week the price of oil recovers after falling last night, and in the coming months the price of a barrel could rise to $ 60.
“It’s worth noting that today, an event occurred that no one expected – Britain voted to exit the European Union, – said the honored economist of Russia, Professor of Russian Academy of Andrey Margolin. – This inevitably will affect markets, increase their volatility, will add to the negative. The world economy in General and Russia in particular are highly dependent on this kind of upheaval.”
According to the expert, optimistic forecast possible, but only if certain conditions are met.
“The decline of inflation and GDP growth will happen if the Russian government will start to conduct more active investment policy than now, – said Andrey Margolin. Now economic growth is directly dependent on the financial injections into the economy. It’s simple: the structure of GDP is government spending, incomes, balance of export-import and investment.
Expect rapid growth in government spending today is not necessary. Incomes, declining in 2015 to 10%, recovered is too slow. The positive balance of exports and imports in the face of economic sanctions is not a very large share of GDP. Investment remains as the engine of economic recovery. To rely on the rising cost of oil, I would not – in any case, it would be worthwhile to start from the scenario that the price of a barrel will be about 50 dollars.”
According to experts, is to link economic growth with the oil price – a traditional error.
“If today the quotes of “black gold” will go up, rekonstruiruet “frozen” from-for unprofitability of shale deposits in the U.S. – says Margolin. – In addition, the oil consumption is gradually reduced, being replaced by traditional energy. Therefore it is better to maintain a moderately pessimistic forecast, and not to make bets on the trade of fuel and raw materials.”
Financial VTB Group, a Russian holding consisting of more than 20 credit card companies and banks. The main shareholder – the Russian Federation represented by Rosimushchestvo and the Ministry of Finance. Companies represented in 16 countries around the world, including Europe and East Asia.
