So it turns out that the conversation about strategy in the issue of the “Ukrainian problem” in recent years, increasingly began to Balk at the lack of understanding of what is (or should be) then, when everything will fade. The situation is exacerbated by the frustration of the people of Ukraine that considers itself adequate and normal. Like, none of that only one svidomye, and the consequences have to suffer.
I’m certainly not the Commander in chief, but I want to say that Russia implemented the strategy nothing surprising or tyronepeeler no. Everything just as normal. A good strategy in General is usually always simple and obvious. Another thing is that this directness often generates rejection. Hence, all attempts to give a kind of strategy, some tactical particular. Yes, the same is taken from here and misunderstanding what will happen, for the execution of tasks at the tactical level, in the General scenario in General, as something fundamentally changes nothing.
For example, today Russia strongly stimulates the process of federalization of Ukraine. But it remains unclear why. For example, tomorrow evening will announce it to all areas of the country. What is the difference? The population ardently love Muscovites? It seems like there. Then what’s the point? And if federalization is not the ultimate goal, then what is the main objective? To rebuild Ukraine into another form, but when saving it as Ukraine, i.e., independent of a separate state. Let a friendly Russia, but primarily independent? And Russia it what for?
I have repeatedly shown (I hope to repeat all the arguments again here is not necessary) that any post-Soviet border States (and Ukraine is just as he is no prospects for independent existence has not. Separate Switzerland has passed. Free markets allow trade to bypass graznov no longer exists. Regardless of any desires themselves of the border countries, economic ties will inevitably tighten them into the sphere of influence of large economies. Which is now exactly two: the West and Russia. Formally, there is China, but he was too far and Ukraine it really has nothing to offer.
If you do it right, economically Ukraine is inevitable need someone to closely integrate. No matter with whom, with us or with the West, but it is necessary. Only this will allow to build sales and minimize costs. But politics is a derivative of the economy. Ie the growth of economic integration will inevitably lead to the political integration. However, it is naive to think that in politics there are equitable integration of the two countries, whose economies are 10 times different in size. GDP (PPP) 2015 – 3718 billion, the GDP of Ukraine – 339 billion.
In such hands little inevitably absorbed by the large. Including geographically. And not because of malice or greed great. Just since a certain level of integration the presence of boundaries becomes unnecessary unnecessary financial costs that reduce the economic efficiency of mutual trade and industrial relations. Thus, the center of decision-making remains the same. And it will certainly not the capital of the small border States. A good example is the inclusion of Crimea in structure of the southern Federal district of the Russian Federation. The ratio of the scale is stubborn.
This means that in the long term, the Ukrainian elites, there is only one development option – to be on the level of purely regional administrations, with very limited powers. Roughly speaking, were the President of square powers, the status is Obama, Putin, British Queen and the Chinese Prime Minister, and became in the best case, the Governor, and the head of the district Council. Feel the difference? Is it any wonder the desire of the ruling elites to maintain their authority over “his” territory at any cost, even at the expense of the economy, and even the price of rapprochement with the enemies of Russia?
Now I repeat the question: what for to US to create this “new Ukraine” if, irrespective of the outcome of its rebranding, exclusively according to the laws of political economy, sooner or later, she tries again to rip us off?
The only option, this scenario is exclusive, this inclusion of Ukraine into Russia at the General standard of the region. Ie the elimination not only of Ukrainian statehood, but also the very idea of Ukrainian uniqueness. The end of history is the transformation of Ukrainians in the ordinary Russians, exactly the same as in Tatarstan, Chechnya, North Ossetia and many other places. In Russia, in fact, is home to more than 130 Nations and nationalities, which, however, are all the same RUSSIANS.
And division of Ukrainians into “adequate” and not much “us” and “svidomo” is actually happening in their relationship at this point. Those who understand this moment and share our. All others, including those who are “like would agree, but still with reservations and attempts to preserve any special status Ukrainian” – not ours. When it comes to “burning”, referring to the degree of activity that is “not ours”.
However, this principle can be well adequate to separate the statesmen from any kind of “very Patriotic” and in Russia.
