Alexey Kudrin promises to present to Vladimir Putin the program of reforms in the first half of next year. In the document you can find the already familiar thesis about the improvement of the investment climate, modernization of the public administration system, increase of productivity, increase openness of the economy and “integration into the global technological chains”. The problem is that the world economy is undergoing a period of fundamental transformation, and all this — the agenda yesterday.
At a meeting of the economic Council under the President Alexei Kudrin tried to convince Vladimir Putin to reduce geopolitical tensions. He said that Russia should integrate into the international process chain, albeit on the sidelines, and to do all for foreign investments.
And recently the Minister of economic development Alexei Ulyukayev, speaking at the forum VTB “Russia calling!”, said that “we are in the trend of our obligations to the world trade organization, reducing our customs.” “Because we understand that world trade is trade in global value chains. And the need to protect the chain, not this or that factory,” — said the Minister. He believes that we need to do everything possible to increase “non-oil exports”.
What chains, what is the export, I want to ask the former Minister of Finance and Minister of economy. World trade is experiencing the strongest crisis of the last decade — its growth rate is almost two times below the growth rate of the world economy, which already are at multi-year lows.
It is obvious that the era of globalisation based on moving production of the parts of the technological chain to countries with cheap labor and resources, over.
China — the world’s largest exporter, the world’s factory is headed for reorientation to domestic demand, and its trade turnover is falling. Exports declined in September 2016 compared to the same period of the previous year by 10% in dollar terms, imports by 1.9%. The decline in exports in dollar terms was the most significant since February. With the beginning of the year exports decreased in dollar terms by 7.5%, imports — by 8.2%.
It is meaningless to talk about openness, export orientation and the desire to attract foreign investment in a situation when the world economy ceases to work under the old scheme.
Fashionable nowadays the term “technology transfer” is also useless — it’s just a failed attempt to jump into the last car of the train. Because, as you say many foreign analysts, the world has entered a new era of the fourth industrial revolution.
“We are on the cusp of a huge breakthrough, and this breakthrough, oddly enough, will begin with industry. Again. He will lead us out of stagnation and will radically change the process of globalization that has emerged over the last ten years. I’m here to tell you about the fourth industrial revolution, which is happening now,” said Oliver Scalar, senior partner and managing Director Boston Consulting Group in Paris.
The most important digital technologies are in an industrial space, they will increase the productivity of production more than a third of what prostimulirujte economic growth. In his opinion, the basis of the fourth industrial revolution will be based on several technologies. For example, robotics and 3D printing. According to the forecasts of Oliver Scalabre, if today the average level of automation of production processes is only 8%, in 10 years it will reach 25%. This means that by 2025, robots will join the ranks of the workers and together they will be 20% more productive, will be able to produce 20% more goods.
“Oddly enough, the most amazing part of this new industrial revolution is completely unrelated to performance. It is to produce better, more “smart” products and large-scale customization (customizability to the needs of the client. — “Газета.Ru”),” says Oliver Scalable.
What is the result? The industry will become more productive, more flexible, factories will be smaller and will move into the local markets. “In the world of large-scale customization of the proximity to consumers will become the norm,” — said the expert.
What this means for the global economy and global trade? Globalization enters a new era. The trade route “East – West” will be replaced by regional trade routes “East – East”, “West – West”.
“When you think about it, the old model seems all the more insane. Warehousing of goods, international carriage of goods to the end consumer… Industry in developed countries back to the domestic market, creating more jobs, becoming more productive and contributing to the development… China and other developing countries are no longer factories for the world” — suggests a BCG partner.
He notes that the new industrial revolution will hasten the transition of such developing countries to a model based on domestic consumption. Now, remember that almost all prominent Russian economists, including Alexei Kudrin, Alexei Ulyukayev and head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina declared that the growth model based on consumption, Russia is no longer needed.
The whole world will go to customized economy oriented to regional markets, and Russia will continue to build something from yesterday. The story of the “fourth industrial” is written right now, it’s obvious. And the number of its elements is to add the explosive growth in the number of electric vehicles.
Analysts of the Agency Fitch recently estimated that if the share of electric cars in 10 years will rise to 50%, the oil consumption will be reduced by a quarter. And it is a challenge for all players in the oil and gas industry. The fuel and energy sector needed strategy, was quoted by the British Financial Times managing Director Fitch Alex Griffiths.
Is there such a strategy in Russia? Did someone President? No. Vladimir Putin, speaking recently at the world energy Congress in Istanbul, said that the basis for conclusions about the decline of the era of hydrocarbons yet.
“In an environment of falling oil prices more than twice as many talking about the fact that the hydrocarbon era comes to a close. What we must now completely shift to alternative energy sources. I think the real reason for such far-reaching conclusions yet, at least for now,” — said Putin.
The problem is that when the reasons will appear later. And it can fly in “black Swan,” warns the FT. For example, China can completely switch to hybrid and electric motors in vehicles.
It is worth to note this. Robotics, 3D printing and digital technologies require a minimum number of employees (but these workers will need to have a broad engineering knowledge). And it is a challenge for labour market and education system. The challenge is not that there will be a shortage of workers, and that will be a surplus. This excess will go into the service sector, and for servicing robotic factories need to be highly professional engineering staff. The citizens of developed countries will be guaranteed a minimum income.
The coming digital era “will be a period when you make a breakthrough or you will be out of business,” said John Chambres, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Cisco Systems, held in early October the IMF seminar “Technology, innovation and inclusive growth”.
In his opinion, in the next decade, 40% of companies in America, Asia and Europe may disappear.
The panelists also agreed that education is a prerequisite. Expert ray Kurzweil, inventor, writer and futurist, said: “We need a new education model — the current model has deteriorated”. “We must quickly begin the education reform, and not under the old model of linear thinking,” agreed John chambers.
“Technology is the easy part, — said Chairman of the Board of Directors of Cisco Systems. — The difficulty is that companies and countries have changed their culture, organization and mechanisms of compensation”.
Much the same was said and Oliver Scalabre: “This fourth industrial revolution is a chance for each of us. If we do this right, we will see stable economic growth in our countries. This means that each of us will get more wealth, and our children — a better future.”
To do everything correctly and do not miss your chance, you have to begin to talk about it at the program level of development of the country. You need to begin to build their concepts and reasoning to try to make a big jump and not to stay forever “on the sidelines”.
