Experts of the Higher school of Economics predict that Russia’s decade of stagnation unless the government refuses to “bad institutions” and will not initiate reforms that will change the rules of financing of the social sphere, and also will not find the formation of the domestic source of “long money”, while not considering as before a source of replenishment of the budget of the oil and gas industry.
The report of the HSE rector Yaroslav Kuzminov presented on Wednesday at the April conference. The authors figured out five conditions through which the country will transition to a “new equilibrium”. According to RBC, among these conditions reduce inflation to 4-5%, loans to small and medium-sized businesses on the stock market, and for this it is necessary to form domestic sources of “long money”. Experts indicate that the need to reduce political risks for business. To conduct a partial “dismantling” of the existing system of control and supervision. “Now the burden on business it is comparable to the judicial-security system”, says Kuzminov. In his opinion, such a system at the moment takes business 2% of GDP. Authorities must renounce Sverdlovenergo “charity taxation” of businesses, when a business places an added burden on the social projects.
But most importantly, according to experts, Russia due to the specifics of the development of the economy of the 2000s, has accumulated a “bad” social institutions. So, since the USSR preserved state paternalism in the social sphere. “Social benefits are perceived by the population as derived from the free States, on this basis, formed preferences of voters”, — experts say. They warn that this policy will lead to a dead end. Understanding the social risks may lead to the fact that the government will go for reforms. Experts hope that will create legitimate institutions of co-financing by citizens of social benefits, including the introduction of pension system and development of the NPF, targeted social support, development of competition in the market of social services through the provision of access on this market to non-profit organizations. Due to the exhaustion of budget resources likely increase the tax burden on high-income groups of citizens, the results of the report on social developments, the newspaper “Vedomosti”.
“Offshore capitalism” — the experts call the second a “bad institution” inherited from the period of wild capitalism. In Russia it is considered a form of risk insurance, and not tax evasion as in civilized countries. HSE experts are confident that Russian business has very high standards for profitability. “If in the countries with developed market economy 10-12% of the expected annual yield is for business normal psychological level to begin projects in Russia this threshold is 20, and even 30%,” they say.
Dangerous for Russia experts called the inertial scenario of development of the country (on it right now and the government is moving). Under this scenario reserves “has” for 2-3 years, until a new presidential cycle are reproduced by the old institutions. Without “feeding” major non-oil business will begin to “freeze” in engineering, infrastructure. The slow pace of development in agriculture and the retail sector due to lower incomes and consumer demand. Experts warn that the pending reforms result will be the 10th anniversary of stagnation with growth rates up to 3%, resulting in Russia at the level of welfare will catch up with China, and she never will approach Western Europe.
“Russia through several years will have to make a choice between the “fair market economy” and efficiency of the social sphere, which determines a more rapid growth,” says Kuzminov.
It supports the ex-Minister of Finance Alexey Kudrin who has declared that the reserve funds will soon be depleted. “We said that when the price of oil falls to $ 30, thanks to the reserves we will be 3-4 years, so that without shocks to restructure the economy and move to a different policy. — said Kudrin. — The reserves helped, but the new policy while not moving. If this does not happen, then all the conclusions of this report are correct”.
