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On parole and on one wing

On parole and on one wing
“Expert Online” 05 APR 2016


Petro Poroshenko gave the deputies a week to form a government and coalition. Otherwise, he threatened the deputies to resign.


Give the coalition?

Apparently, in Washington the Ukrainian President explained the implications of delay the formation of an effective government and the coalition. In particular denounced the idea that otherwise Ukraine may not see new borrowings in the West, because the West holds a very low opinion of the current Ukrainian government and its image. According to the head of the EU delegation to Ukraine Jan Tombinski, “the crisis of the last two months paralyzed and the Verkhovna Rada, and the government does not show a good picture of Ukraine”. The New York Times calling Ukraine a “swamp of corruption”, and Obama has already openly confronted the regime in Kiev as a liability and do not intend once again to get involved in Ukrainian Affairs – neither in military nor in political. “I think in the USA the Ukrainian President promised to help get rid of Yatsenyuk. If he helped, Poroshenko … just would expect when tomorrow or the day after Yatsenyuk will submit a resignation”, – said Ukrainian political analyst Mikhail Pogrebinsky.


Because of the help the President had not received, he went the other way. Poroshenko demanded from the Verkhovna Rada as soon as possible to conduct all vote on the new Cabinet and a new coalition. “I emphasize that the Parliament these 30 days (deadline for forming a new coalition after the collapse of the previous one – the Expert Online) is not. I’m not going to give them – said the Ukrainian President. – In the first parliamentary week the country should have a new Prime Minister, new coalition, new government program that guarantees certain stability in the work of the coalition and the government”. And added that if the deputies did not fulfill its mandate, the Parliament will be dissolved.

Promising to disband Rada, Poroshenko is all in. The unfavorable re-election sociological polls show that BPP will lose in the vote, and its representation in the Parliament will increase, opponents of the President from the Opposition bloc as well as people from the “Fatherland” Yulia Tymoshenko. But Poroshenko understands that even more of these elections does not need a “Popular front” Arseniy Yatsenyuk. “The ratings of the Prime Minister and his party how low that early parliamentary elections for the majority of deputies from “Popular front” will mean the end of his political career. Poroshenko expects that the popular front, in turn, will pressure Yatsenyuk and forced him to sign the statement — then at least the party will remain in the ruling coalition,” – says Mikhail Pogrebinsky.


East need to give the word

While publicly the Prime Minister on such an option agrees not (and recall that after the failed vote on censure motion against Yatsenyuk at least six months cannot be dismissed without overclocking Excited or voluntary resignation). Instead, he calls for total reformation of the system of government through the adoption of a new Constitution. However, on the sidelines suggests that the premiere will still convince to resign, and his place will select the current speaker of the Verkhovna Rada Volodymyr Groisman.

As for the coalition, the situation is more complicated. The West needs not just a mathematical group of 226 MPs (which can be easily formed Poroshenko at the expense of deputies of BPP, National front and rented “carcasses” from among non-party deputies) – he needs a stable, working coalition that will be churning out the necessary reforms and implicitly carried out through Rada West need legislation. Volodymyr Groysman hints at joining the coalition of “Batkivshchyna” Yulia Tymoshenko and the Radical party of Oleh Lyashko. However, both these political forces on the basis of their ambitions and roles won’t be able to play the role of a stable partner. So the only option is to create a truly stable coalition is early elections.

Mode, naturally, against. According to Vladimir Groisman, “early elections can now, in this period of time, to “burn” the entire country”. Or rather not the country, and the current regime. The same election in Krivoy Rog, on 27 March (on which the result of 74% in the first round defeated the current mayor and former regional Yuriy Vilkul and representative of the Maidan – semen Semenchenko – took only 10% of the votes), showed that the inhabitants of the South-East are tired of the revolutionary Maidan propaganda and want a normal, stable life. For example, the one that was provided by the regionals.

However, solving tactical problems on forming a coalition exclusively from “Maidan parties”, President Poroshenko, of course, is not conducive to the strengthening of Ukrainian statehood. “How long we can keep the country on one wing, because the coalition has very little influence on the Eastern regions of Ukraine?” – asks the Ukrainian political scientist Vadim Karasev. From this point of view the optimal scenario Ukraine would be holding early elections and forming a new, centrist coalition of the PPO, Self-help, and several parties representing South-East of the country. This would be the first step towards bringing the country from civil conflict. However, this scenario is not optimal for Poroshenko himself, because it threatens his power, so it is unlikely that this scenario will be implemented. At least in the foreseeable future. And, apparently, the West doesn’t need early elections (which will testify to the frustration of Ukrainians in the regime and a significant advantage for Russian propaganda), so the US and the EU will be satisfied by the creation of tactical coalition BPP, National Front, BYUT and the Radical Party. About the long-term future of Ukraine, they, like Petro Poroshenko, I don’t think.

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