Money, as recently reported to the Prime Minister, we have now not. Not so at all no, some money is still there – the elections, for example. The world Cup money too. Dangorayo Zakharchenko and his ilk have the money. But for the indexation of pensions and many more have not.
Yes, and the money is still there – it’s mostly residual effects from the period of high oil prices when they managed to make the stash not only cellos, but in the reserve Fund of the country. And the reserve Fund we are now actively eats. And this Fund, as recently announced by the Minister of Finance, will be exhausted in about a year.
And then what?
Then we still have the national welfare Fund (Oh, the name of something positive!) this Fund will last for some time. Maybe a year, maybe two.
And then all.
And if someone thinks I have a couple of years to endure, the oil will again be a hundred coppers and a three resumes is a somewhat naive hope. First, special preconditions for a new boom in the oil market yet, at least not in the coming years. And secondly, even a hundred dollars a barrel the Russian economy will not save us.
The fact is that of a progressive de-industrialization and degradation of the economy, and the growing appetites of the bourgeoisie (and they grow) – the price of oil we now need at least a hundred and fifty to return to growth, which was observed in 2006-2007. Then you will need to oil became 200. And then 300.
But this is definitely not to be.
There will be such prices for oil to 150-million-strong country that did not really produce, but only painfully importozameschenie European agricultural, lived in one oil rent, while she lived well. Moreover, it is impossible with our appetites, the latter-day bourgeois and officials who money stuff the whole apartment.
It is Qatar with two million people can live on the oil rent. There are, moreover, very warm. And Russia with its territory, climate, roads and 150 million people – can not.
Without developing industry, Russia can only scrape the bottom and argue about managed it nasopure or not and whether “as in Ukraine”.
The hope that Putin will go to 4th period and then finally implements his cunning plan is even more naive hopes. It hurt to realize your cunning plan until now? The bad boyars, whom he everywhere has appointed and blessed for the next elections?
Russia needs to develop its own production. And it’s nothing new. This was evident in recent years. Because plants left from Soviet times, gradually grow old, fixed assets wear out, without the updates, the volume of production of own production will be permanently reduced.
Plants that were closed and turned into warehouses and shopping centers in the 90-ies, it is necessary either to restore or to build new ones to compensate for what was lost. And it is also not a novelty.
And it had to do with high oil prices, directing the surplus to the purchase of equipment and development of production. But this was not done.
Instead of re-industrialization in the period of high oil prices has been casing the country imported junk and cars, plenty of which many people credited the President and the government, rejoicing in clogged courts and traffic jams.
Cars “in every family”, which gifted the contingent considered it a sign of prosperity is ruined and unbuilt factories, uncreated jobs in production – that means goals car parks and traffic jams in modern Russia.
And most importantly – these cars 10-20 years will become worthless, turn into clunkers, but whether the money to buy them instead of brand new – the big question.
The money that Russia has received zero at high oil prices, corny pulled on stuff and foreign cars – that is, by and large, in the trash, where these goods will inevitably go, and many have already been sent.
Let’s say that our government is relaxed when high oil prices and naively thought that it would be always best time for development of own production is still to come.
But when the crisis hit in 2008, nothing has changed. We began to convince them that Russia is an island of stability in a world of crisis, has made the recapitalization of banks and… and nothing more.
Then the price of oil for some time went up, but the Russian economy from the crisis of 2008 never came.
And most notably, after a partial recovery in 2010-2012, and in 2013 began a new recession.
A new downturn in the Russian economy did not begin after the sanctions and falling oil prices as some people think – it started in 2013 year. Before the Maidan. Before the sanctions. Before the fall in oil prices.
And that, I think our government realized it?
Nothing of the sort!
First, we were told that sanctions do not affect. Then he announced a program of import substitution, which is nothing by and large not given. Then we were convinced that the oil can not be cheap, because it is not beneficial to anyone.
And when the oil still fell, the Central Bank lowered the ruble to keep Gazprom and Rosneft revenues in ruble terms and to lower the cost of production in dollar. And immediately capitalized banks per trillion rubles – this money was found quickly.
After that, the President assured us that the Central Bank had acted correctly and the government is working satisfactorily.
And now, the last message – from the President that we were some kind of bottom (without specifying in which direction) and also from the Prime Minister that there is no money, but we need to hold on to.
Well, we keep…
And for what we stand, what are you waiting for?
If our government did not develop industry at high oil prices, not realized it in 2008, faced with the first crisis comes in 2013, when he began a new downturn, realized in 2014, when it received the sanction and collapsed oil prices – what else to expect?
Aliens waiting for? Or Santa Claus?
Even the head of the Central Bank openly States that the key problem of the Russian economy is dependent on oil prices. That is the raw nature of the economy recognized at the official level. And low level of domestic production, too. It’s no secret, no mystery – know about it and the government and the Central Bank is recognized. But what is being done to solve the problem?
Nothing!
Nothing was done at high oil prices, nothing has been done at low.
Nothing was done before the sanctions, nothing is done after.
When something will be done? When pigs fly?
Are only made statements that the Central Bank acts right, the government is working satisfactorily, the bottom is passed, hang in there. Economists called this “verbal intervention”. That is the work language. Here only the language of the plants will be built.
And at the same time the President and the government openly declare that it will be remain a liberal economy, although all of the above is just the result of a liberal economy, which is being built for 25 years since Gaidar.
The result of this liberal policy – a resource-based economy, dependence on oil prices, and falling incomes and a decline in consumer activity (that is, the reduction in the consumer sector), which is observed for many months in a row. And the reduction of its own production in almost all industries.
Everything is done except for the work of language is the construction of two new pipe.
Just pipe our economy will not save, on the contrary they will strengthen the dependence on oil prices and will make even more raw.
This means that incomes will decline further, funds will be wasted, and in a year, two, three or four the money runs out completely. And come really deep crisis, like the crisis of the late 80s and early 90s, a crisis similar to 1998.
And then the President and the government will finally do us a pen, telling another funny joke.
But it will be then.
And yet…
There is still some money in elections, the world Cup, dangorayo Zakharchenko and others like him – vote, dear citizens. Believe in a cunning plan, which 16 years were not working, but tomorrow it suddenly will work, and vote.
You don’t want the regime changed and Russia has ceased to be a democratic country?
You support the President, elected in free and fair elections every <s>four</s> six years.
You support capitalism, privatization and other gains Yeltsin, Gaidar and Chubais, the founders of the resource Federation, sitting on the gas pipe and the oil needle.
You support all the things for which liquidated the Soviet Union in which the people did not elect either of the General secretaries, nor of the Central Committee of the Communist party, but despite this, the USSR has a strange way of victory in the great Patriotic War and launched the first man into space – the Soviet Union, and then surpassing it in population and size of economy the United States, where the nation goes to the polls to change Republican to Democrat and back.
But you do not want the return of Soviet power, which for your sake was demolished by Yeltsin, Gaidar and Chubais, for which first built the Museum over 7 billion rubles from the budget, the name of the second called the economic forum, which annually brings together members of the government, and the third gave RAO UES structure with turnovers in excess of Rosneft and Gazprom.
So go ahead and vote.
Vote to continue to vote and wonder why I vote and vote, and money less and less? Why do I drink, drink, and I’m getting worse and worse?
No money, but you vote!
