The Ukrainian government fears the spread of the conflict zone in Sumy and Chernihiv region
Author: Tatiana Ivzhenko, correspondent of the “Nezavisimaya Gazeta” in Ukraine
Today in Minsk will host a meeting of the subgroup on political issues of the settlement in the Donbass. The agenda and the positions of the parties remained the same, but changed the background to the negotiations. The Ukrainian side and the Republic on Monday exchanged allegations that the implementation of the Minsk agreements in question. This means that with each passing day increases the threat of large-scale hostilities. In Kiev do not exclude the possibility of the extension of the conflict zone.
The contact group meeting in July ended without any results: the parties agree neither on modalities of local elections in Donbass, nor about the release of prisoners on the principle of “all for all”, nor Amnesty. As before, disputes are reduced to a sequence of actions.
Ukraine insists, that it was necessary to implement the agreements related to security (down to the last item on transfer to the Ukrainian party of border control with Russia). After the demilitarization of the Donbass and the restoration of full jurisdiction of Ukraine over the territory of Kiev promises to solve political issues, taking into account the views of local residents. In the DNI and LC note that in this approach there is no guarantee citizens the protection of their interests. Therefore I propose to execute the agreements associated with the cessation of hostilities and political settlement of the conflict in parallel.
The difference in approaches has stalled the work in Minsk. In practice, the requirements of the parties are as follows: Ukraine is seeking the elimination of the DNI and the LC, which includes the requirement of Kiev about the disarmament of the armies of the Republic and the withdrawal from the region allegedly present there military from Russia.
DNI and LC are defending their right to exist and the Autonomous status. Therefore, require to hold local elections by the rules, the cease-fire but no disarmament of their armies. From Ukraine await the announcement of an Amnesty for all defenders of the Republic (this would allow them to take part in the elections, the results of which would recognize the Ukrainian side), and after the Amnesty of the Republic are ready to exchange prisoners according to the principle “all for all”.
In Kiev insist on exchange without any preconditions. And declare that the representatives of the republics, a list that includes 600 of the names of the defenders of the DNI and LC, unreliable. In a complex dialogue between the parties on this issue, yesterday joined the Deputy of the Verkhovna Rada Hope Savchenko. At a press conference in Kiev, she said that from today on hunger strike in protest against the inaction of the Ukrainian authorities and world leaders on the issue of release of prisoners. Savchenko hit with harsh criticism of President Petro Poroshenko. And stated that on 8 August at the presidential administration, planned by relatives and friends of those who were captured. Savchenko, according to her, is going to Donetsk and Lugansk for talks on the exchange of prisoners with Alexander Zakharchenko and Igor Carpentry.
In Ukraine, Savchenko is increasingly called a traitor, because it is believed that by engaging in negotiations with the heads of DND and LNR, member of Parliament makes a step towards their recognition and legalization of the republics of Donbass. On the other hand, all the louder criticism of the authorities, which does not recognize the Republic, but does nothing to resolve the conflict. Sources “NEZAVISIMAYA Gazeta” noted that Kiev is stalling for time until the presidential elections in the United States. However, experts avoided talking about that will change by the end of the year and what kind of help from the new U.S. administration expects Kiev. The former head of the SBU, the leader of the public movement “Justice” Valentin Nalyvaychenko in the comments of the “Left Bank” said: “We need to help US first of all in restoration of territorial integrity and the restoration of security. For this support we need to fight and the President and government of Ukraine in the headquarters of both candidates in presidents of the United States”.
Sources of “NG” I think that in General Kiev explained the situation and recommended to waste time before winter on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Warsaw. There, we recall, held closed talks between the leaders of USA, UK, Germany, France, Italy with the President of Ukraine. Back in Kiev, Petro Poroshenko took the initiative to develop a “road map” implementation of the Minsk agreements. The Minister of foreign Affairs of Ukraine Pavlo Klimkin said in mid-July: “the Logic of the road map that we want together (with the “big five”. – “NG”) to create, is the need to clearly define the sequence of steps. Primarily in the field of security, as they relate to the cease-fire and withdrawal of Russian troops, heavy weapons, mercenaries”. At the end of the month the Ukrainian President called the German Chancellor Angela Merkel to draw attention to the escalation of the conflict in the Donbass. According to Poroshenko, the situation escalated because of “militants increase in the number of attacks from large-caliber weapons and the continuation of Russia’s supply to them of arms”.
A week later, last Monday, Poroshenko during the meeting with the ambassadors of the United States and Italy Geoffrey R. Pyatt and Fabrizio Romano again drew attention to the situation in the Donbass. According to him, the worsening situation on the front might become the obstacle to further progress in the matter of implementation of the Minsk agreements”. The logic of the statements of the Ukrainian President, as before, came down to the fact that the Russian side, he said, supports the DNI and the LC, so the West should increase pressure on Russia with the aim of forcing the implementation of the Minsk agreements.
Russia, as you know, his involvement in the conflict does not recognize. Therefore recommends Ukraine to negotiate a settlement directly with the DPR and LPR. The same demand from Kiev and the Republic.
Monday on a press-conferences the Chairman of the National Council DND, the representative of the Republic at the talks in Minsk Denis Pushilin said that if Kiev does not fulfill the political demands of the Donbass, the conflict may last 20 years.
Two years ago, large-scale fighting led to the conclusion of the Minsk agreements in September 2014). But the agreement has not been executed, and in February of 2015 was approved a Complex of measures on implementation of Minsk agreement (Minsk-2) which is also still not implemented. Now in Kiev say that the case goes to Minsk-3, and aggravation of the situation in the Donbas is connected with the fact that the opposite side tries to impose on Ukraine its conditions of new agreements.
In the analytical report of Center for army, conversion and disarmament (ciakr) notes that the West’s attention is now focused on issues not related to Ukraine: “at the beginning of August around the Russian-Ukrainian war was created by the negative for Ukraine in the context of the international arena.” This, according to analysts of the center, took advantage of the opponents: “As the attack on the Ukrainian position. – “NG”) in June-July and the fighting in the future aimed at forcing the Ukrainian authorities to hold elections in the occupied Eastern regions and the formation of a Pro-Russian enclave”. The ultimate goal of such actions, analysts said CEACR, is “the return of Ukraine in the Wake of the policy of the Russian Federation”.
At the end of August – beginning of September in Kiev predict the likely escalation in the Donbas and the possible expansion of the conflict zone. In this context, CEACR noticed it sounded in late July, the Prosecutor of the ATO Konstantin Kulik. “Over the past two weeks Russia has moved their military resources from Rostov-on-don under the Belgorod, close to Sumy and Chernihiv… They are ready. Just waiting for the call (from the allegedly oppressed Russian-speaking population of the border regions. – “NG”) – log (on the territory of Ukraine. – “NG”),” – said Kulik. The reason for this treatment can create subversive groups.
But the reason for the destabilization, as according to Ukrainian experts, may be the position of the Hope Savchenko. Yesterday she said that President Poroshenko does not want to hear arguments about the necessary personnel decisions in the leadership of the APU: “fools will not win the war”. Does not want to punish those responsible for “boilers” and in General for the collapse of the Ukrainian army. “For this, the most politicized in the history of mankind a war you will answer… But more for the fact that during the war your business with the enemy – Russia – continues to work,” Savchenko addressed to the Ukrainian leadership, not naming names, but noting that successfully work the chocolate, not the ammunition factory. And continued: “You will answer for what volunteers and not Oboronprom, provide our soldiers at the front… because we helped the whole world and the Ukrainian government managed to muck everything and bring shame to the glorious name of the Ukrainian people.”
Kiev
