Preliminary data shows that Russia’s macroeconomic statistics will be better in August than in July, but the economy after the recession entered the stagnation period, which can last for several years if you do not take action and not to carry out reforms, said the Minister of economic development Alexei Ulyukayev.
“August we have, in fact, slightly better than July in fact, macroeconomic statistics”, – said the speaker. The decline in GDP in annual terms inflation accelerated in July to 0.7% from 0.5% in June.
“We have moved from recession to stagnation. I don’t like this game in terms, but, nevertheless, if you use them, then that is the situation. That is, a period of low growth. We will increase and he will begin this year. But it will be low growth, not the growth we’d all like to have. That is 1.5-2% per year. This is the growth potential that we can and will have if we do not resort to structural measures, institutional reforms or fiscal and monetary stimulus, and so forth,” – said the Minister.
“That’s why in addition to the “base” and “base plus” scenarios, we have a “target” forecast. There, we aim to reach 4% growth per year, which is higher than the average growth of 3%. But this requires some conversion,” – said Ulyukayev.
Meanwhile, the forecast for GDP growth in 2016 hudsen to minus 0.5-0.6 percent from minus 0.2%. “For the year we expect the GDP decline even more by 0.5% than 0.6%. The reduction forecast from 0.2% to 0.5%. This effect is notorious of fiscal consolidation,” – said the Minister.
“When we in the spring of expected scenarios and the number of decline in GDP of 0.2% was obtained, we assumed that the limits of budget allocations, which was not been transferred at 10% will then be restored. Now it seems that the odds are close to zero. And now, we have taken this as a dropdown and dropdown in demand as investments. Prices this consolidation of 0.2-0.3% of GDP”, – concluded the speaker.
