May decrees Putin, the birthday of the economy… Where is all this?

“May decrees” was published in the hope to implement the second edition of “fat years”. But the waste of resources for the sake of illusory goals, based on false priorities, the expected result has not brought.

Until the fourth anniversary of the signing by Vladimir Putin of the legendary package of 11 ordinances there are still a few days. But their explicit psychological relationship to may day, which has long been our holiday of solidarity of workers with the authorities, has to ensure to think about them now.

In the popular mind “may decrees” if anything, and are associated, except with unfulfilled promises to raise salaries in education and medicine to the level of the national average.

In reality it is a detailed plan, which is subject to the operation of all state agencies. Something like a five-year plan (or rather, six-year-olds, according to another presidential term of Vladimir Putin – from 2012 to 2018), which is painted economic, social and even demographic indicators, which is to be achieved.

Some of them (e.g. the mortality rate in road accidents) is clearly dependent not only on the efforts of officials, but also from God. And many others (such as GDP growth rate or update rate of jobs) and even in such a bureaucratized economy like ours, badly obey authoritative commands.

But the combination of targets expressed views of our governing circle and its first-person (as of may 7, 2012) regarding what is possible and desirable to achieve.

Here are some of the targets, selected from a myriad of other as the most expressive:

– “To provide increase by 2018 of life expectancy in Russia to 74 years.” That is, by 4.2 years compared to 2011 (69,8).

– “…Increase by 2018, real wages 1.4–1.5 times”.

– “…The increase in labor productivity by 2018 by 1.5 times compared with 2011.”

– “…Increase investment by at least 25 percent of the gross domestic product by 2015 and to 27 percent by 2018”.

Keep smile. The figures are taken not exactly from the ceiling. Their writers was the basis for the comparisons.

Let’s see what we have achieved over the six-year-old, from 2003 till 2008, in the so-called “fat years”, recalls the Kremlin as the Golden age. Life expectancy then rose to 2.8 years (to 68 years in 2008; real wages in 2 times; productivity – by 45.6% (including in manufacturing – by 52.8%); the proportion of investment in fixed capital has increased from 18.2% to 21.4% of GDP.

Now I understand where everything came from. In the years 2012-18 was supposed to provide the same economic growth as in the 2003-08-x (and in the newest sectors and even higher), but to achieve this lower price, without the outstripping growth of wages and other expenses for the population. Instead, the decrees were prescribed two additional engine of growth: measures of mobilization of the Arsenal (the growth of investment, especially investment of the state in the state armaments program) and increased pressure on administrative staff.

To the bureaucracy quickly turned him on all sides have imposed decrees, orders, regulations, regulations. Feel the intensity of paperwork, “pursuant to “the may strategy prepared and adopted 69 of the Federal law, approved more than 200 normative legal acts Issued… 274 order, 134 order issued in their development. Only 408 orders, of which 341 executed by the government…”

Who willingly who not, who to the detriment of themselves, and some with obvious benefits – Federal and regional officials to this day, subject to countless intricate rituals, “fulfilling the may strategy.”

And that’s the bottom line:

Life expectancy is now 71.4 (1.6 years more than four years ago). Task six-year-olds are unlikely to be met even halfway. But against other things it is almost the only positive result.

Real wages in 2015, was just 4.3% higher than in the past “doukasen” year – 2011. Even if you count our current circumstance respectfully decline, although it is generated by our economic system, and no world crisis around no, – so, even discarding the year of decline, we will see that over the next three years from 2012 to 2014, real wages rose by only 15%. I.e. before the oil collapse almost twice lagged behind targets.

Even worse is the case with labour productivity. For the 2012-14 years, she rose in the whole economy only by 6%. And the crisis in 2015 and even decreased, only to 103.5% from the 2011 level (including in the manufacturing sectors of four-year performance increase was 10.9%). To compare this marking time with the rapid pace of “fat” six-year-olds is ridiculous.

Investment miracle also does not smell. In the past year, investments in fixed capital amounted to 20.7% of GDP instead of 25%, scheduled for 2015. In 2008 there were more. Huge public investments in weapons led to a decline in almost all other investments, especially private ones.

Although before the expiration of the “may decrees” two years, you can not talk about any partial failure, and complete failure of the entire project. The main reason for this insolvency, not the ignorance of the mechanism of pricing oil and related to this failure to foresee the fall in oil revenues. In the first “mentioned” three years, from 2012 to 2014, the average price of a barrel of Urals was much higher than during the 2003-08 years, but the utopian of the “may decrees” already has had time to emerge fully.

Economic well-being “the fat years” has stimulated not only petrodollars. But also free-market heritage of the nineties and early noughties; insufficient at that time was the unity and irresponsibility of a minority clan-oligarchic leadership caste; moderate, compared to the current, the size of the state-security spending.

Attempt to produce the “fat years” as though the second “improved” (and also cheaper) edition came from a misunderstanding of the true terms of the then prosperity of the utopian belief in the mobilization of myth and magic by bureaucratic action. But not enough to call it another unfulfilled dream. Impracticable decrees really were trying to accomplish. Squandering resources for the sake of illusory goals, based on false priorities, became a stone around the neck of the country.

Awareness of failure today, apparently, already imbued with the author of the decrees. The achievement of the targets is transferred into the indefinite future, to get rid of obligations, they are not formally canceled. Clearly viewed the purpose of economic activities of last time – to achieve at least economic stagnation, perceived today as the lost Paradise. But even a return to stagnation will require financial sacrifice. In fact, after the “may decrees” left a lot of unpaid bills.

Sergei Shelin