For the past six months, Deposit rates have settled down in the area of the single digits. A single quotation special conditions sometimes exceed 10% per annum, but they do not compare with those that were past, and especially last spring. A year later, however, and today’s rates investors will be able to remember as unrealistically high.
By the Bank of Russia anti-inflationary policy and delights and frustrates investors. On the one hand, the slowdown in consumer prices leads to the fact that previously discovered deposits provide greater real return. But on the other nominal rates on deposits fall, and in the last six months — even with acceleration.
If at the beginning of may, the maximum rate on deposits 9,755% per annum, having fallen for the previous six months by a few tenths of a percentage point (with 9,917%) in the last week of October, she was only of 8.78%. In this really extreme proposals of banks (Central Bank expects the maximum bet on the market leaders) sank much more visible.
A year ago, dozens of banks offering deposits at 12-13,4% per annum, six months ago there were a lot of proposals under 11-12%. Now there are only a few banks with deposits of over 10% per annum, and, as a rule, we are talking about large amounts and special conditions.
In part, this decline in the yields of extreme sentences is due to the activity of the Central Bank in the direction of withdrawal of licenses, particularly affecting it is the banks with peak rates. Some impact on the situation of politics market leaders, as reflected in the reduction in the maximum bet. The Bank of Russia, as you know, recommends that you do not exceed it by more than 3.5 percentage points. Now, however, in contrast to the situation a year ago, banks are restricted to Europe and not nearly close enough. After all, if raising funds of investors not connected with the urgent need to close the financial hole, the money must still somehow be able profitably to place.
“Russian banks for the first time appeared in a similar situation. The high key interest rate, declining inflation, and against this background, growing real interest rates. Slowly recovering, especially not the large banks margin. Going and is not going to end the banking crisis,— said the chief analyst of Sberbank Mikhail Matovnikov.— The banking system is segmented, and different groups of banks the situation is different. But, for example, state-owned banks and private banks with a good reputation see low customer interest in the loans at the existing rates. The inflow of funds they have, and lend a certain. The loan portfolio is reduced. And they since the spring, when the whole was repaid loans, the Central Bank began to lower interest rates on deposits of natural persons. This process will continue next year. In this case the yield curve will remain inverted shorter deposits will be more profitable long term”.
For investors it is, at first glance, not very good news. However, the value still has not the nominal and real yield, in other words, what inflation will be in the future and how they will relate to her bet. “With the achievement of inflation by the end of 2017 the level of 4% Deposit rate of major banks can generally descend to the level of 5%. Have smaller can be 6% or higher,— says Mikhail Matovnikov.— In four percent inflation does not believe everything they say about 5-7%. But not even the accurate achievement of the target figures and the possibility of closer to 4% it creates major interest rate risk for banks. This situation is a challenge not only for depositors but for the banks.”
Absolutely exact figures of inflation and interest rates on deposits that are expected by the end of 2017, today, of course, can’t call no one, including the Central Bank. But while the Bank of Russia vows to keep key rate at 10% “to consolidate the trend towards a sustainable reduction of inflation”. However, he indicates the possibility of its reduction in the first and second quarters of 2017. This, he predicts, will lead to the fact that the annual inflation will be less than 4.5% in October 2017 and 4% by the end of 2017.
This leads to the fact that the banks will remain difficulties with the credit crunch high in real terms, the percent, and the yield of deposits will decline and the background of a high key rate. This policy of the Central Bank regularly criticized in the expensive loan. Last week, for example, a press release of this kind spread, the Association of regional banks of Russia.
“In conditions of declining inflation, it is estimated less than 6%, have a key rate to 10% wrong,— said the President of the Association and the Chairman of the Duma Committee on financial market Anatoly Aksakov.— I see a lot of advantages that makes the Central Bank and its stance on inflation and financial stability I know. I criticize the Central Bank for the indecisive, the reduction of the key rate. They attribute this to the fact that the situation can be more controlled if they do. In my opinion, we need to understand the implications for economic growth the slow decline of the key rate”.
However, based on previous practice, it is difficult to expect that the Central Bank will listen. Moreover, his analysis shows that “a moderately tight monetary conditions do not inhibit the recovery of economic activity, and the main restrictions lie in the structural field.” And there’s still a likelihood that a decrease in the rate of inflation in the future will not meet the forecast of the Central Bank.
“Our base scenario assumes a decline in inflation to 5.5% by the end of 2017 (from 6% at the end of 2016). Such dynamics of inflation will allow the Central Bank to lower the rate to 8.5% by the end of 2017, says the macro analyst of Raiffeisenbank Stanislav Murashov.— Until inflation within the Central Bank’s forecast, which the regulator has done in the past (as he has repeatedly stated in press releases) that partly motivated his actions to lower the rate. However, in the case when the Central Bank will see that inflation does not fit into his forecast, this would entail saving rates for a longer time and is accompanied by the rhetoric of the regulator.”
Anyway, a noticeable decrease of Deposit interest rates by the end of next year is likely. And it objectively increases the attractiveness of other tools for placement of individuals, such as stocks and bonds. On a related flow of funds of investors in the stock market hope brokers and management companies. Besides, recently in attracting customers, they help the individual investment accounts (IMS).
As is known, it is impossible to put more than 400 thousand rubles per year and withdraw funds without losing tax benefits previously three years. But to obtain a yield of about 6% per annum enough opening such an account, for three years, every year to put on it is equal to the sum and to receive from the state tax deductions. This is even without the purchase of securities. With Deposit rates at 5-6% per annum simple buying OFZ on such a huge stock will pass yield any contribution.
Another question is whether they want their own investors to try out such a scheme or any other option of investments in securities. Grounds for doubt here. For example, low interest rates on foreign currency deposits somehow still not led to their disappearance from the balance sheets of banks.
“A very serious outflow of depositors’ funds in the stock market at lower than now, but still positive real interest rates is hardly possible. If it does not take into account the “serial investors”, looking for the maximum rates on deposits. Although some of the flow, for example in bonds to occur and may, says Michael Matovnikov.— For many in our country, the money on Deposit is not so much an investment, as the reserve in case some costs in the future. And here comes to the fore stability and the ability to quickly obtain money. There is, however, another category of customers, whose growth we capture those who take their funds as capital and seeks investment opportunities. And to retain them, I think banks in the future will have to do some special offers”.
In the meantime, the flow of investors into the stock market violent really hard. So, for October in Russia was opened about 150 thousand IMS, with more than 60 thousand of them again in the banks (the vast majority in Sberbank, VTB 24 and Alfa-Bank). Given that in our country more than 45 million depositors, it is, of course, a drop in the ocean. Deposit rates, however, also still quite high.
Gleb BARANOV
Table to article can be viewed on the website source.
Source: Money
