Policy — a system developing according to General rules of strategy, typical for such systems as chess and war.
In the same way in which the system “chess” makes the system “war”, “war” simplify “politics.” In fact, the war is just one of the private, not the most effective and, as a rule, cases of forced policy. The war can still be accurately described using mathematical tools and to simulate even the computer its future development.
But politics is to calculate anything in advance for more or less long period is almost impossible. Absolutely clear and transparent circumstances can radically change in a historically short period of time, making perfect calculations in the dust.
Only two examples. In 1985 the Soviet Union was going to develop dynamically and reformed. In 1992, the Soviet Union was gone. In 2000, even in 2005, the United States could afford anything in the world and even in the post-Soviet space. In 2008 they received at the hands of Georgia. In 2016, ousting them from the Middle East, and the Ukrainian project, it is shame to close as politically unprofitable.
By the way, about Ukraine. Now there is not that unique, but extremely rare in the politics of the situation, when millions of free wills, tens of thousands of private, corporate thousands and hundreds of state interests no longer conflict with each other and begin to form a coherent mosaic. Such in the history of the world is rare, but in the history of Ukraine of the last quarter century occurred strikingly often that indicates that the absolute intellectual limitations of the ruling circles, thinking in strictly defined parameters.
The result is the space of possible solutions to the Ukrainian elite (power and opposition) is even closer than the player, limited by the strict rules of the game.
Therefore, to predict the conflict between President Yushchenko and Prime Minister Tymoshenko in 2005, labour was not. Their tandem was as predictable as the fate of the rabbit and the boa in the same enclosure. It was not difficult to predict and the future of Yanukovych. With the amendment in two or three years (for history, not even a moment) he had to be overthrown. And he’s lucky that he managed to escape. The trial was not supposed to.
Now similarly unfolds the fate of Poroshenko — the last President of Ukraine.
Because column in “Izvestia” on volume inferior to the Great Soviet Encyclopedia, three puzzles, forming the Ukrainian political mosaic of the last months.
First, the national Bank of Ukraine for three weeks, allowing the national currency to gradually fall against the dollar. And it’s not because the government is trying to support the national producer, increasing its export potential. All of the Ukrainian government at all times considered the stability of the national currency important of all economic indicators.
To a greater or lesser extent they all brought the interests of exporters to the victim of this notorious stability. For governments, Poroshenko, Yatsenyuk and Poroshenko, Groisman currency stability — generally the only achievement.
But exporters are left, and help was none. Severing economic ties with Russia, losing positions on the markets of the CIS and nothing acquiring in the EU, turnover with which over the past three years has shrunk by a quarter, Ukraine with his own hands destroyed its own domestic producers.
Progressive weakening of the national currency can only mean one thing: the government has left other sources to cover public expenditure, but a printing press. So, in the coming months, Ukraine has to face a hyperinflation in terms of the continuing decline of the economy. Smart people from power distanciruemsa not to risk their lives.
Secondly, resigned Mr. Lozhkin head of the presidential administration Poroshenko. The Ukrainian media authoritatively declare that in the last six months Lozhkin persistently sought his resignation three times feeding the appropriate application.
It would be nothing. Lozhkin understand that politics isn’t his thing, okay. But to replace him came one of the longtime, close, trusted employees Poroshenko, having a weight in Ukrainian politics. The new head of administration was appointed Kharkiv Governor Ihor rainin, who until March 2014 was on average production and bureaucratic positions in the Kharkiv region.
The sharp rise of his career came after the coup. But rainin is not even the Prime Minister Groysman, with whom Poroshenko had a long-standing personal and business relationships. Rainin — man appointed, which no one wants to take. This figure: a rat run with poroshenkovskogo of the ship that are left alone are doomed.
Third, the “Amnesty international” suddenly “saw” the secret prison of the SBU in Ukraine. It was “only” two and a half years with the first reports about their creation. This organization did not notice any of the crimes of the Kiev regime and suddenly saw the secret prisons and torture of prisoners.
This, incidentally, is a crime against humanity for which the leaders of the regime, the management and employees of the SBU may be prosecuted without time limitation and around the world. Term up to life. To explain this insight logically can only be that Amnesty international does not wish to wait for the moment when the regime will collapse and it will poke your nose in secret prisons. In other words, they work on pre-emption.
And it’s just three puzzles from different policy areas. Only in the last couple of weeks of these you can pick up two dozen. And they all indicate one thing: Poroshenko has written off not only foreign partners, but with their own accomplices. The margin of safety regime is gone, and now everyone is trying to enroll in his criticism.
Let me remind you that President Yanukovych rats ran on February 21, 2014, when the coup actually took place. Poroshenko already running.
The author is President of the Center for systemic analysis and forecasting
