That will bring Russia, perestroika 2.0?
Wednesday, April 20, ex-Minister of Finance Alexey Kudrin has declared that will head the Board of the Center for strategic research (CSR).
“I got the offer, I already agreed. Now there is a approval procedure. Determined that I come the Chairman of the Board CSR”, — Kudrin said on the sidelines of the XVII April conference of the National research University Higher school of Economics (HSE).
Explain that the offer made by President Vladimir Putin. During the “Straight line” on April 14 the head of state said that Alexey Kudrin can deal with “issues related to strategy development after 2018, and on more distant prospects”, and not only in the management of CSR, but also as Deputy head of the economic Council under the President.
Kudrin has already outlined a range of policy issues: “I think that the elite, especially the business elite and the working class will soon feel that the institutions of the judicial system, public administration, education and health unsatisfactory work. Sure, we stand on the threshold of new changes.” According to the former Minister, “the culture and institutions of our societies allow to have requirements to power to perestroika”. However, the ex-Minister did not begin to remind that the result of perestroika, Mikhail Gorbachev was, in fact, the collapse of the USSR.
According to “Vedomosti”, the reform of public administration, health and education can be applied a project approach — new fashion trend in the government under which officials assume the Department is not in the instructions, and KPI (key performance indicators). Moreover, the newspaper writes, the reform Kudrin can become the new national projects that Putin will go for the fourth presidential term.
On the sidelines of the conference of the HSE Alexey Kudrin recalled its merits on a post of the head of the Ministry of Finance, noting that the creation of a “cushion” in case of falling oil prices was a key decision. “Delaying the reforms in pension and social sphere, in the structure of government spending inhibits the transition to the new reality, but if not for the reserves — would have had to polovina defense costs and 20-30% of nominal salary,” he said.
What is symptomatic, Kudrin made it clear that he shared the conclusions of the HSE report, prepared for the April conference. In it, in particular, said that the most preferred option for socio-economic development of the Russian variant of the accelerated and progressive liberal reforms. Alternatives to this path are available, but the authors of the report (HSE rector Yaroslav Kuzminov, scientific Director Yevgeny Yasin and Director of the Center of development Natalia Akindinova) are skeptical.
“The first (alternative) — start the economy with cheap credit, i.e. to replace the rental boost non-oil business emission sources. Will pay for this scenario the population whose incomes will bring down the emission caused by pumping inflation and falling incomes makes senseless pumping credit. A second alternative is to consolidate resources in the country through the mandatory sale of a currency and the ban on the export of capital: in a closed economy, this version is able to create a new equilibrium, but the outcome will be a technological environmental degradation,” the report said.
Whether Kudrin will give carte Blanche to conduct perestroika 2.0, and what will be the consequences for Russia?
— Promotion to the position of Director of the Board — it is a huge success and Kudrin, and Pro-Western oriented part of the Russian elite, — said the Director of the Institute of political studies Sergei Markov. — Development of economic programmes towards a new electoral cycle is an important tradition Putin, Kudrin and the purpose of this tradition is confirmed. Another thing, no one knows to what extent the new economic program will be implemented.
I recall in the late 1990s, the center for strategic research under the leadership of German Gref has formed the agenda of reforms, which have much in common with current initiatives, and this agenda has been implemented to a very small extent. However, the CSR objectives have been fully realised from a staffing point of view: the main specialists of the Center then took key positions in the government of the Russian Federation.
With the advent of CSR Alexei Kudrin, with high probability, can happen the same.
“SP”: — In which direction can go Kudrin perestroika 2.0?
— In the same, in which always there were reforms when Kudrin. In my opinion, his activity as Minister of Finance was conducted primarily in the interests of the Russian branches of Western financial structures.
We can say that offshore elite, which largely governs the modern world, and is the main beneficiary of the economic policy pursued by Alexei Kudrin.
The problem is that this economic policy is in deep contradiction with the policy of national-oriented elites, which implies a throw of money in the national economy to stimulate growth. Just like this line adhere to today and the US administration and the European Commission.
Should I give money to the national economy for the construction of infrastructure is a key test question. Kudrin he has always been given a clear and simple answer: no, let the money go to Western financial institutions.
Today, however, the model of economic development, which has always adhered to Kudrin, at an impasse. I must say, the gist of it clever — this model adhered to Peter the great, and the Bolsheviks, to ensure the rapid modernisation of the Russian economy through the attraction of the Western technologies and Western investments.
Model intelligent, but today it is impossible for obvious political reasons: Western investments and technologies, if we try to get them, will be immediately blocked.
Therefore, as Kudrin himself is the use of this model is an open question. Plus, however, is the fact that his appointment head of the Board will be very positively received by international investors. These investors perceive Alexei Kudrin as a political ally, and even as their representative.
However, I do not rule out that Kudrin will implement a completely different economic policy that will stimulate the development of the national economy, including through programmes of quantitative easing and major investments by the state in infrastructure projects.
So suggests a famous logic of Putin’s personnel — the President often appoints to certain positions people who, seemingly, nieorganiczne of these posts…
— Kudrin, apparently, is going to focus not on purely liberal, and institutional reforms, — says doctor of economic Sciences, Professor of the Academy of labour and social relations Andrei Gudkov. — Liberalism reduces everything to monetarism — the management of financial flows. Institutionalism and the changing relationships in society — and this, incidentally, is much closer to Marxism. But the delusion still not worth it.
We clearly see the consequences of the activity Kudrin as Minister of Finance — to ensure that the huge volume of social obligations of the state was passed on to the shoulders of the regions, and the most “tasty” sources of income were concentrated at the Federal level. The result of this policy today, 79 of the 85 subjects of the Federation are deeply subsidized.
The paradox is that now Kudrin needs to propose reforms that will allow us to get out of this situation.
“SP”: — And what he offers?
— Do not rule out the same thing at the time, suggested the liberals in the US to introduce a progressive income tax. Life itself is pushing the Russian government to reforms, especially as “flick of the wrist” in Doha to raise oil prices failed.
Moreover, I feel that Kudrin for the post of head of the Board will be only the springboard to the government. The fact that the right wing liberals Kudrin is a figure in some sense alternative to Medvedev personally. Kudrin, in my opinion, thinks deeper premiere, besides he is a highly qualified economist, while Medvedev is a specialist in Roman law, that is more the theorist.
In other words, perhaps Kudrin will replace Medvedev as Prime Minister. Because he is long gone from the government, the blame for the current crisis, it turns out, is not so great. On a hand he plays and the fact that his idea of “airbags”, which he firmly defended, does not allow the current crisis to slip into catastrophe. Thanks to Kudrinskaya square “pillow” today was the reserves, and they give the government room to maneuver.
Another objective can be traced in the appointment of Kudrin. In the late 1990s the reform programme of the CSR under the leadership of German Gref helped Putin to unite the elite, which has a positive effect on economic growth. I guess now the government is trying to repeat the experience. It is no coincidence that Kudrin, speaking about the elite and the business elite who are not satisfied with the quality of public administration, suddenly thought of the working class.
— The appointment of Kudrin — the result of backroom negotiations and compromise, assuredthe Chairman of Russian economic society them. SF Sharapova, Professor of international Finance MGIMO (University) Valentin Katasonov. — Not knowing the terms of the deal, it is difficult to make forecasts future activities of Alexei Kudrin.
I think, however, that in the near future no real levers of control in the hands of the former Minister of Finance will not. Rather, just give him the opportunity to “let off steam” so that liberals could feel that have some rights. Plus, it would be grouped around Kudrin legal liberals (not “liberal offshore” type Garry Kasparov or Mikhail Kasyanov) — in this case they are easier to manage.
It is hoped that this will be the case, and that the plans of liberals to reform the Russian economy will not be realized. As we all know, with the words “perestroika” and “liberal reform” is hiding the destruction of Russia.
