Center for strategic research has prepared a forecast of economic development up to 2035. It is not too ambitious. The Fund’s experts, headed by former Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin suggest that Russia will reach the world average growth rate after the end of the fourth presidential term of Vladimir Putin. By 2025, GDP will increase by a third and doubling it you can only wait for another ten years.
Doubling in 20 years
CSR has not yet prepared a programme for reform (called the “Strategy 18-24-35”), but has already made a forecast of socio-economic development of Russia until 2035. The Fund does not expect a powerful economic breakthrough. GDP growth will not exceed the world average.
In this case, from materials of the Fund shows that growth during the fourth term of Vladimir Putin (that he will go to the polls in 2018 and will benefit them, no doubt) will be low.
“In General, the proposed forecast assumes an exit of the Russian economy’s sustainable growth rate is not below average, while ensuring macroeconomic balance: GDP growth will accelerate from about 2-2,5% in the medium term to 4-4,4% 2025-2030 years. By the year 2025 compared to year 2016, GDP will grow by 30%, and in 2035 compared with the year 2016 — two times,” — said in the document referenced by TASS.
The next 6-7 years, according to the concept of CSR, should be devoted to a deep restructuring of the economy, structural reforms that will change its resource focus on non-oil.
The growth rate of industrial production will lag behind the growth rate of the economy, and after 20 years, the production volume will increase in two times, and 70%. Spoil the statistics, the weak dynamics in the extractive industries, but “treatment” will not double, but increase by 94%.
In CSR suggest that the manufacturing sector will begin producing modern high-tech products, and labor productivity will rise sharply.
“World experience shows us that the Russian economy is one way or another will be based on integration into the global economy and the integration of the global chain of added value formation,” said TASS, the head of “macroeconomics” CSR Pavel Trunin.
He also noted that the forecast laid down growth as domestic investment in the economy, and external, which indicates the stabilization of the macroeconomic situation in the long term.
Pros and designers will save Russia
Products of Russian manufacturers will have become so advanced that almost all the increase will be exported. At CSR believe that the share of non-oil goods and services in the structure of exports should increase from the current 34% to 60% by 2035.
Given the low dynamics in industry to be responsible for the GDP growth rate “on the level of average” will be the service sector. It will grow faster than the industry. In CSR believe that it will happen due to the “new services” such as design, logistics, IT, design, etc.
In CSR also assume that there will be increasing wages — in real terms it will increase in 2035 1.9 times. Inflation will be reduced first to 4% and then to 2.4%.
It should be noted that previously, the Ministry released its long-term forecast in the baseline scenario, which assumes economic growth on average by 2% per year until 2035. But in trust, investment oriented variant of Ministry of economic development much better than the CSR, since the growth rate above 4% is expected to come out in 2019, instead of after 2025.
Forecast TSSR agreed with the Ministry of economic development, say in the Fund. However, “Kudrin’s scenario” can hardly be regarded as final. He is most likely to change as the preparation of the reform program. I wrote “Газета.Ru” its the first version should be ready early next year.
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