Win Donald trump means for Ukraine a big shake-up. The predicted spectrum of events – from a sharp aggravation of the situation in the East of the country in the coming months before the early change of the Ukrainian government in 2017. In Kiev, pay attention to what came after independence, the team made a clear bet on the victory of Hillary Clinton and now can play along with it.
A good relationship with the Republicans Mikhail Saakashvili, who on the day of the American elections has strengthened his conflict with President Petro Poroshenko. He first focused on what is now the citizen of Ukraine and has the right to engage in this country’s policy. To start the promised “sweep” the Parliament, government, presidential administration – to remove from power everyone a day earlier, Saakashvili called corrupt and criminals.
Yesterday the words of Saakashvili was perceived more thoroughly. Ex-Governor posted in social networks your photo with Donald trump, which was signed: “know him for over 20 years, we’ve been friends… a Strong personality with the emergency policy. We have to be careful and more organized than ever.”
The head of the Institute of Ukrainian politics Konstantin Bondarenko told “NEZAVISIMAYA Gazeta” that the words of Saakashvili relate primarily to the team Poroshenko: “Ukrainian government has made line bet on a victory for Clinton. High-ranking officials allowed himself to speak disparagingly about the trump (yesterday reporters noticed that some of the Ukrainian politicians began to remove the old entries and comments in social networks. – “NG”). Well if – statements. But that wasn’t the story of the “barn book” the Party of regions. This team trump just will not forget.”
We are talking about the fact that three months before the American elections in Ukraine stated that in the informal accounting of the Party of regions appeared large payments in the name of Paul Manafort that before 2013 advised the team of President Viktor Yanukovych. At a time when there was a scandal, Manafort headed the campaign headquarters trump. And was forced to leave the post in the middle of a campaign. “Now by Paul Manafort considered as a candidate for the position of head of the American foreign policy Council (a non-governmental but immensely influential analytical center at the U.S. Congress. – “NG”),” – said Bondarenko.
The expert said that Ukrainian authorities that came after independence, Washington was seen as stooges of the Democrats. And now the Republicans on the example of Ukraine can point out the mistakes of their predecessors. This situation, according to Bondarenko, was in the early 2000s. Leonid Kuchma, was elected President during the rule of the American President-Democrat bill Clinton faced problems as soon as the United States defeated the Republican George W. Bush: “Remember, broke the “chain” scandal (on the supply stations electronic reconnaissance “Kolchuga” to Iraq. – “NG”), the “cassette” scandal (about the content of conversations in the office of Leonid Kuchma. – “NG”)? Touched and albert Gore (Vice-President of the United States in the Clinton administration. – “NG”)… we HAVE all of this led to the stock “Ukraine without Kuchma” and has subsequently resulted in the orange revolution…”
Konstantin Bondarenko believes that Ukraine soon possible serious reshuffle: “Already a queue of those who are willing to look in the mouth of the new American administration with the assurance that they are better than Poroshenko and his friends. High-profile resignations to avoid unlikely”. In this context, in Kiev note that a neutral relationship with the Republicans managed to keep Yulia Tymoshenko and some members of the former Party of regions Viktor Yanukovych.
Analyst Peter oleschuk in an interview to “112 channel” drew attention to the fact that Donald trump is a successful businessman. Such people are often guided not by political ideas, interests benefits, including the political. “If he needs, he will make friends even with the devil. The task of the Ukrainian diplomacy in the coming period is to show that the interests of Ukraine important for the United States,” he said.
Former Ukrainian foreign Minister Volodymyr Ogryzko said that the coming months will be a transitional period. In addition to forming teams trump, according to Ogryzko, will be engaged in substantive study of the list of issues concerning the interests of the United States.
Political analyst Taras Chornovil noticed that the first trump speech after the election was strikingly different from his campaign rhetoric. Chornovil, who was familiar with Paul Manafort during his work in Kiev, even in the summer stated that the consultant usually advises his clients to say what they want at the moment to hear, and right to oppose their ideas to the ideas of a competitor.
Now Chornovil noted that Donald trump has done so: “Until the last day of the campaign, he shocked them all statements that actually broke the traditions and standards of American politics. All – against Clinton. And in the first speech after the victory we see a new trump, which, like any other US President, is ready and willing to defend American traditions and standards. Whatever he said before the election – forget it. Now includes absolutely other mechanisms of American politics, in which more than one person decides and determines everything”.
“The Republican party has the necessary fuses and good personnel potential”, – said the Ukrainian media, Deputy head of the Ukrainian Central election Commission Andriy Mahera. He expressed confidence that these circumstances will provide Ukraine the support of the US in the future.
Yesterday morning, the new American Ambassador in Kiev Marie Yovanovitch assured the participants of the traditional Breakfast party after election night that the US “will remain a strong partner of Ukraine.”
An informed source, “NEZAVISIMAYA Gazeta” on this occasion I noticed that the support for Ukraine and support the Ukrainian authorities – not the same thing. “As for the state, the real position of Democrats and Republicans appeared in that was developed (and has already been voted on in the house of representatives) the bill “About support stability and democracy in Ukraine.” It is actually outlined what you can expect to Ukraine from USA. It’s a really powerful support. And after winning the trump it can be more effective. The Democrats were very cautious, were limited to statements and guided by the motto “what if something happens.” Obama, as we know, was strongly against granting Ukraine weapons for defense. In the election program of the candidate-the Republican did not have a clear promise to provide arms, there are vaguely told about “support of Ukraine”. But it can mean a lot. Arms – a separate issue. But negotiating the establishment of joint enterprises of the defense industry is even more important,” – said the source.
Experts in Kiev say that the new contours of American policy in relation to Ukraine will appear not earlier than spring. And the next six months they think critically dangerous period. Analyst Peter oleschuk said: “Russia may try to take the bull by the horns and realize aggressive projects in Ukraine. This means the sharp deterioration in the East. And not only: we can talk about extending the zone of instability for the sake of raising rates in the negotiations. But it will lead to the opposite result.” He believes that in this case, the American administration will be forced to expedite the consideration of frameworks and formats of assistance to Ukraine: “In Washington, by contrast, is interested in the fact that as soon as possible to resolve conflicts, to stabilize the situation in hot spots,” said oleschuk.
Taras Chornovil also warned the Ukrainian authorities about the coming “time of uncertainty”, political turbulence: “In Russia, the victory trump took it as his own. They may decide that the hands are untied, everything is possible… in Spring the situation will turn in favor of Ukraine. But it’s still autumn… And the team Poroshenko will have to start with a clean slate.”
