How will the new attempt of liberation of Donbass for the Ukrainian army.
Kiev can take control of the entire Donbass in the next few weeks, and does not do so only because President Petro Poroshenko is configured on a peaceful resolution of the situation. Such opinion in interview to the Ukrainian “observer” stated a military expert Oleg Zhdanov, formerly a Colonel in the operations Directorate of the General staff of the Kuchma-Yushchenko.
According to him, today Ukraine has all opportunities for the “liberation of Donbass purely military means”. And can eliminate the hotbed of separatism” in just a week.
“Our national guard, which was created from scratch, dressed to the nines and armed with new weapons, though not ultra-modern. Her teach foreign specialists”, — reminded Zhdanov. And concluded that the National guard is most afraid of the enemy.
The only reason why the Ukrainian troops have not started to “free” Donbass, according to the expert, is that “the policy of President Poroshenko is aimed at implementing the peace plan”.
Here it is notable that Zhdanov thus commented on the recent statement of the Chairman of the people’s Council DNI Dennis Pushilin. Who said that Ukraine has refrained from a military solution to the conflict in the Donbass because of fear of resistance from the troops DND and LNR, because “this is not the disparate militia groups”, and “complete army”.
Meanwhile, in the position of the Ukrainian expert, there are two controversial points. Just a month ago — on may 5, he sharply criticized Poroshenko for the fact that “it has no vision of the strategy of resolving the conflict in the Donbas.” And before that, the opposing Donetsk Governor Zhebrivsky, which is called to start a major war with Russia, acknowledged that “for two weeks at the Donbass not to release”.
Then what Zhdanov said now?
— In terms of strengthening the combat capability of the Ukrainian armed forces and strengthening of fighting power of the national guard, unfortunately, he’s right, — said the representative of DND in the Rostov region, a political analyst Eduard Popov. — Ukraine has used the time that was given to her by the Minsk agreements, to learn and technically re-equip his army. And here, as we know, she actively helped NATO countries — and appliances, and military instructors, who more than a year already tighten the Armed forces of Ukraine under NATO standards.
The fact that some divisions of VSU and national guard for combat readiness during this time is very greatly strengthened, and noted military experts DND and LNR.
However, still most of the troops of IEDs, to put it mildly, not eager to fight. Now Ukraine is the seventh wave of mobilization. And take mostly children from the Pro-Russian regions, with South-East — areas historically considered part of Novorossia. There are a number of zealous patriots of Ukraine is very low and the motivation to go to the bullets, of course, they have no no.
“SP”: — But there’s still the National guard. And just today, the Ukrainian media reported that in the framework of national guard created the first military unit to NATO standards, which included assault battalions, a tank battalion and artillery battery. It is not entirely clear, however, why the structure, which should ensure the rule of law, all this heavy military equipment?
And I will remind that in the National guard, which was established in 2014 on the basis of internal troops, were infused so-called volunteer battalions composed of Nazis and militants of the Maidan. These motivation for the war in the Donbas is very high — “kill the separatists and Russian occupiers”.
But, in fact, the National guard needs to perform police functions — to suppress any riots, mutinies in the colonies, etc., Respectively, they — the national guard is, by definition, should not be heavy weapons.
Therefore, strengthening the National guard at the expense of heavy weapons, the Kiev authorities give these units fire “muscles” to an existing motivation.
I’d say the National guard of Ukraine — is an analogue of the German units of the Waffen-SS. They’re initially created from concentration camp guards. In street riots were able to show good results, but could not fight. However, constant training, increasing combat experience turned them into a formidable fighting force, especially after the transfer of the Waffen-SS heavy equipment. And we know that then there were whole SS Panzer division.
The Ukrainian command and the political leadership is on the way just Nazi Germany, when increasing the power of the national guard.
“SP”: — And as for the promises made “to release in just a week”?
Here another parallel with Nazi Germany — she too had planned a blitzkrieg in 1941.
Now in the zone of contact with the Ukrainian side cinches various military equipment — tanks, armored personnel carriers, infantry fighting vehicles… etc. possibly, in order to create a “fist” of the first fire strike. Their task, on the one hand, will be to cut off the Republic from each other, — i.e., to cut the front. On the other hand, they will try, probably, to take control of the border with Russia, as it was in the summer of 2014. To block the delivery of humanitarian aid and refugee flows. As well as to close the passage of the Russian volunteers that the mass will swing in the Donbass, as soon as Ukraine will launch another attack.
Here they need to collect as more powerful fire fist to first strike to destroy the military and social infrastructure of the Donbass republics. But we must understand that in this fire the shot most of the Ukrainian equipment, too, will die.
I do not exclude that Kiev wants to go the way of Nazi Germany, with its plan “Barbarossa” and the idea of the blitzkrieg.
“SP”: — But final — I remember — was not very successful in Germany…
— I think the assertion that for a few weeks they’ll deal with the Donbas, it is highly hasty. Ukraine, of course, greatly increased in the military compared to the summer of 2014. But those two years in the DNI and LC are also not slacking. And the President is absolutely right when he says that the militia is already there. Appeared army. Case-1 — is the army, the Ministry of defence DND. Case-2 is a combat unit of the people’s militia LNR. So that would be the confrontation of the Ukrainian army against the army of the Donbass republics.
And easy victory won.
Now on the contact line of the parties Ukrainians regularly shelled the positions of the armies of the DNI and LC. They do not respond. In fact, there is such a one-sided game.
Again, the analogy with the great Patriotic war, when the German Nazis constantly provoked the Soviet Union in the border area, there was a rigid order — not to respond to provocations.
Also now are the army of the Republic — they do not respond to provocations of Ukrainian Nazis, so as not to give rise to a charge of violating “Minsk-2”.
“SP”: — do You think Kiev still will take a new invasion?
— When Ukraine will start another blitzkrieg — a matter of time. Perhaps, weeks. Perhaps the month. But this year, I think we will see it.
And, unfortunately, another offensive will be more violent. From the Ukrainian side, focused a number of techniques, including systems of volley fire, as there was for all previous times of conflict. So I’m afraid will happen such a terrible shelling of Donbass, including Donetsk million, that the number of victims of a new offensive will be the most bloody.
But this blitzkrieg will be a funeral March for the Ukrainian army. If earlier, on the basis of some political expediency, gave her the opportunity to retreat, now punishers will remain in the land of Donbass in the literal sense.
By the way, according to the information that I just yesterday received from Ukrainian sources, during the conflict in the Donbas has killed 30 thousand servicemen of Ukraine — is the total loss of the APU, machardie, SBU, and other law enforcement agencies.
Director of the Centre for strategic conjuncture Ivan Konovalov sure that the people’s Republic is absolutely adequately perceive the success of the Ukrainian side:
They know better than us that training is conducted there. That and the upgrading of certain features. Technique and something new began to appear — a good sniper rifle, thermal cameras… etc.
But if you evaluate specifically the words of a Ukrainian friend, I wouldn’t trust it particularly. The Ukrainian side, in principle, loves to make the most incredible statements. However, forget about the evidence.
But, if anything, even presenting some kind of confirmation that their army is now so powerful and strong. Suppose, for example, it will assess their current allies — the military from Europe and the United States. While experts — mind you, not ours, and West are very critical of the General level of the Ukrainian security forces. This applies not only to the national guard and the army, in all regards.
And then, why the Ukrainian side all the time sounds these magical phrase — “foreign experts will prepare the us army”? Yes, you cannot prepare an army of foreign experts is impossible. Or have a warrior’s spirit of combat and the will of the state, which the army wants to create. Or you don’t. And foreign specialists will not help.
I remind you that the army of South Vietnam, which was prepared by the Americans, was defeated by the army of North Vietnam. She suffered a complete defeat, despite the financial investment and the presence of American military trainers. Or think of Georgia, whose army was also prepared by the United States military… How many days it lasted?
