Last aggravation of the Karabakh conflict is only a small part of the geopolitical attacking moves that could change the balance of power in the middle East, the Caucasus and Transcaucasia.
Nagorno-Karabakh
© RIA Novosti
Unfreezing of the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh is not beneficial to neither Azerbaijan, nor Armenia, nor Russia. To such a unanimous conclusion reached by experts at the round table held on Tuesday, April 12, in the press center of “parliamentary newspaper”. But the question of who “lit a match”, opinions diverged.
Blame USA
Sole beneficiary of the escalation of the conflict — the US, sure the first Deputy Chairman of state Duma Committee on economic policy, innovative development and entrepreneurship Mikhail Emelyanov. The transition of the situation in active combat phase will cause harm to all involved States and Armenia, and Azerbaijan, and Russia, and Turkey. And who would have not lost, winning would be Washington, he explains
According to the expert, the White house is very dissatisfied with the current is a bit ambitious and independent — the leadership of Azerbaijan and has made several unsuccessful attempts to organize in Baku the Maidan. More annoying America, and the behavior of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. On the other hand, U.S. relations with Russia almost returned to a state of “cold war”. And in this situation Armenia, which is itself the discontent of America is not, is hostage to its close ties with Moscow.
Whatever the outcome of the conflict will weaken those whose policy at this stage does not suit Washington. The loss of Azerbaijan would undermine the leadership position of the country will backfire and Turkey will get involved in this conflict. Participation in the military conflict will have a negative impact on the development of the country and the United States is beneficial to slow down the Turkish economy.
Losing Armenia would deprive the faithful ally of Russia in Transcaucasia. And in any case large-scale military operation will worsen relations between Moscow either one or the other party. In addition, the probability of being involved in the confrontation is also very high, from this point of view, the situation in Nagorno — Karabakh is the most dangerous for Russia, the conflict in the former Soviet space. This is well understood in Washington. According to Emelyanova, predict that in Nagorno-Karabakh goes up was after the Ukrainian events, where USA came out victorious. “Local conflict is the best way to freeze the development of the country,” he explained.
Uncontrolled Turkey
Other participants, while not denying that certain groups of elites in the US may be interested in instigating the Karabakh conflict, the main initiative in this matter are inclined to give Turkey. No power, but she has not responded to the outbreak of violence, so positive, said the Director of the Institute of Russian abroad Sergey Panteleev.
According to him, Erdogan not only preaches the idea of a new Ottoman Empire, its main ideologue is the current Prime Minister of the country Ahmet Davutoglu. Many experts believed that in this paradigm, Turkey will act in the usual countries of influence, like Syria, and will not go to the region, which is a zone of strategic interests of the Russian Federation, in particular, to the Caucasus. Perhaps it would be, if not a fight with Russia.
The Director General of Institute of EurAsEC Vladimir Lepekhin believes that the altercation was not random, and shot down a Russian su-24 is not an isolated incident, but an element of a deliberate policy. And if you do not answer it not only measures economic, but also geopolitical, such provocations will continue.
According to the expert, do not underestimate Turkey, which gradually turns into a very strong player, claiming to be the regional leader, and strives to displace with this pedestal Saudi Arabia. And to achieve its goals it uses an attacking move. While testing various mechanisms of control over the Kurds and ISIS, as well as the seizure of foreign territories (namely Syria), tries to rein in Armenia, to bind Azerbaijan to negotiate with Iran, shows the teeth of the U.S. and Russia, and even Europe is already beginning to dictate terms. At the same time, Ankara is trying to spread its influence in the former Soviet Union countries with Turkic populations.
But Turkey’s Imperial ambitions set against it, the United States, says Mikhail Emelyanov. As a powerful regional power Washington it is not needed. As for the belligerent statements of Erdogan — not to oversell it, it’s just a consequence of particularly warm relations between Ankara and Baku, the expert believes.
Strategy or tactics
Vladimir Lepekhin said the sale of offensive weapons to Azerbaijan — to Armenia that was unfair. But in a situation of escalation of the conflict Russia did the right thing, taking the most neutral stance, political analysts believe together.
“It is clear that Armenia is our ally on economic Union, while Azerbaijan is our partner, which has supported Moscow. For example, in PACE over Ukraine, so Moscow this conflict is not necessary,” said Mikhail Emelyanov. The position of Russia allows us to hope that the conflict will be kept in the diplomatic part, he said.
The Nagorno Karabakh problem is solved, but not by tactical and strategic, added Vladimir Lepekhin. Diplomatic efforts once again to freeze the conflict, but nothing more. Director of the EurAsEC Institute proposes to discuss the problem in the new regional format “three plus three”, where the first group of countries — Azerbaijan, Turkey and Kazakhstan and the second — Russia, Armenia and Iran. In his opinion, this format can replace the OSCE Minsk group. “Only through regional cooperation, these countries are six, each with their own side, may push Baku and Yerevan to start a dialogue about the future of the region,” he said.
Mikhail Yemelyanov believes that the change would only further destabilize the situation. The previous configuration was working perfectly, she still helped to keep relative peace in the region for over twenty years, reminded the analyst. Moreover, Armenia is unlikely to agree to abandon France’s participation in the negotiation process, given their special relationship. And the U.S. is valid in the region very actively. In addition, in order to exclude from the negotiations of these players and move on to the “three plus three”, the categorical imperative must be good relations between Turkey and Russia, than in the present moment and to dream is not necessary. “Not primary formats, and arrangements between the parties”, — concluded the expert.
