Elena Platonova, Elena Malysheva
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The dollar rose above 67 rubles. for the first time since the beginning of summer. Falling oil prices and Vladimir Putin’s statement about the ruble too strong yet don’t give the Russian currency is likely to strengthen.
In the course of trading on the Moscow exchange, the ruble fell to more than 67 rubles per dollar. The exchange rate of the Russian currency against the dollar in the morning session reached 67,3 rubles For the past week the ruble exchange rate to dollar decreased by 4.2%. On Monday, July 22, it was trading around 64 RUB the Euro also rises against the Russian currency on Friday during trading on the Moscow exchange, the European currency rose to 74,53 RUB Over the week against the Euro the ruble fell by almost 4.8%.
The ruble has returned to two-month lows. At these levels, the ruble was trading last time in early June.
“The trigger mechanism” which began the fall of the Russian currency of a steel of a word of Vladimir Putin, who last week expressed concern at the strengthening of the ruble. “The ruble strengthened, despite the price volatility in commodity markets. And in this regard we need to think about how and what we will do in the near future in connection with this factor,” he said at a meeting with Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev. The next day the press Secretary of the head of state, Dmitry Peskov continued, “ruble” theme. He said that “overall strengthening of the ruble has a positive side, from one point of view,” and “from another point of view, this requires some measures in export oriented industries”.
The main influence on the exchange rate factor is the oil price, which last week shows a steady decline.
On Friday in electronic trading on the London and new York stock exchanges global oil prices fell to $41,01 per barrel light crude oil WTI up to $42,15 per barrel of oil of mark Brent with delivery in September. While Brent fell below $42, to $of 41.85. These are the minimum levels from mid-April 2016.
“The ruble will move with the price of oil. But for the past month we have seen that the correlation is not happening day to day,” – said the Director of the Center for macroeconomic research of Sberbank Julia tseplyaeva, but in the coming days, a strong fall of the ruble against the dollar should not be expected”.
Against the ruble plays a General global background due to risks in emerging markets. “There is an understanding that the position of the Federal reserve regarding raising interest rates has increased slightly. Signals from the fed indicate that from the point of view of Americans of the conditions for raising rates improve. And it gives represents additional risks for emerging markets,” recalls the chief economist of the Eurasian development Bank Yaroslav Lissovolik.
However, the ruble may move in the direction of strengthen if the Central Bank will leave rates unchanged and give the accompanying commentary, which will be marked balanced the risks associated with inflation and its medium-term guidance.
“Talking about sustainable tenencia to strengthen is hardly possible, because globally external environment becomes less favourable for emerging markets”, – said Lissovolik.
Both analysts predict the ruble to the dollar in the range of from 65 to 70 rubles By the end of the year, the ruble, according to Tsepliaeva, will trade against the dollar in the region of 70 RUB.
