Not all were encouraged by the statistics on industry of the Russian Federation during February, showing her emerging from the output of the previous reduction. Commentators rushed to find: what would explain the rise. The main cause called visokosnoe year. Carefully selected industries where depression continues. In addition “objective” analysts are trying not to notice the surge in foreign exchange reserves of the Russian Federation, despite the low cost energy futures. I wonder who the “well-wishers” on both sides of the Iron curtain are trying to convince that the Russians any day now will start to die of hunger, yourself or us?
Analysts from the business media do not pay attention to the industry, and carefully track every half-point correction in the pair rouble/dollar, tracking the dependence of the rate even… the celebration of the Catholic Easter.
In Soviet industrial statistics it was something simpler, performance — clearer, the methodology of measurement is not as foggy as it is today. “”== An electronic archive of OVIONT INFORM: IN 2014, the year was introduced index —the Index of industrial production. It is virtually unchanged in comparison with the average of 2013, although economic fluctuations very noticeable. In recent years, the “locomotive” of manufacturing are chemical and food industries. ==”” Meanwhile, even the surveys of the Gaidar Institute give positive forecasts, rather than trying to explain industrial success… the war in the Donbass. However, the most talented analysts found thermometer for measuring mood in the industry. He showed, of course, freezing temperatures.
Is it possible to conclude that short-term industrial growth, a signal that sanctions for impermissible liberty, just the desire to reclaim sovereignty — have not worked? Partly, Yes, because Russia can be self-sufficient and its economy to the sanctions, to put it mildly, not particularly growing. Economic and financial repression has affected producing companies of the Russian Federation is smaller than the gap of economic relations with Ukrainian plants: only in the defense industry this split affected more than 800 Russian companies and companies in the industry, killing “subcontractors” from neighboring countries.
On the trade balance of the Russian Federation had a negative impact and lower prices for many export commodities, this applies not only to energy. “”== An electronic archive of OVIONT INFORM: the Fall in oil prices — core of the current economic structure, excited and IMF. At the same time Russia has no monetary tools, like the USA or the EU, to adjust the prices of their exports. And always to balance each other’s weak ruble and cheap oil fails. He did, however wheat prices, which, however, has forced our farmers to increase exports of certain products… in 34 times. ==””
But these successes “partners” are ignored under an avalanche of negative forecasts, the mourners in the last path of the economy. Such “funerals Putinism” is, without doubt, had some Foundation. But not all predictions come true, slowly began to grow.
What industry has provided? First of all, processing of agricultural products, with total agricultural upwards gives some hope. Of course, the situation is far from ideal, but the production of milk, meat and their products increases a little.
However, database, financial and legal, is for stable growth yet. And to ensure complete food security is still far away, although if anything the country is quite interrupted. Increases significantly in mining, growth in the chemical industry. The opposite vector — in the production of building materials, machinery, equipment.
However, in recent years significantly increased the output of engineering products. The reason is the significant government contracts the defense industry. And export contracts in the advantage that allows to build the infrastructure. But it dropped the production of cars, which, however, is a natural result of the crisis, that is, purchasing power. Go and counter-processes: the production of our companies is becoming concurenta markets, primarily domestic; however, the production of final consumption goods have slipped a bit due to falling revenues. But so are transportation, electricity production.
The next important positive aspect for the domestic economy — clever use of “weakening” of gold to fill the Treasury. Foreign exchange reserves, despite the howling “sapropelites”, steadily growing, although a long time had to end, and an airbag to deflate. Gold reserves since the beginning of the year gained so much “yellow metal” in the Ukrainian bins. Probably, the Central Bank should continue to follow a similar rate of decline.
The balance of payments of the Russian Federation in 2015 have improved. However, it should be “low base effect”: the year before, according to the Russian Finance was dealt a very severe blow: financial sanctions, coupled with flight of foreign capital, frightened by warnings from power, banking and reytingovaniya heights. Thus, the balance of foreign trade decreased, but remained at a decent plus — $146,3 billion.
Not all export revenues is in the Russian Treasury. Skillfully heated not only by the volatility of the ruble, however, in General, unidirectional, but nepolzhivye media speculative foreign exchange demand has not led to rabies December-2014. But the available funds in the currency decided to transfer a number of entrepreneurs that influence the magnitude of the reserves. On this basis, the “experts” from funds, banks and mass media (and White house) and predicted the inevitable and imminent collapse of the Russian financial system, which inevitably must lead to the complete bankruptcy of Putin’s Russia.
Interestingly, smoke or drink journalists authoritative, like, publications that continue to write about the coming imminent collapse of the Russian economy, about the horrific signs of “economic hell.” Didn’t happen. And now, in the past, opposition economist, who became a member of the American Institute Aleksashenko, understands himself and others says that no economic catastrophe in Russia will not force impoverished “cotton” Russians to decide on policy changes.
Also experts ought to explain to us, unreasonable, in their opinion, is a wreck. The lack of domestic smartphones or independent courts? Or maybe it’s “technological gap”, presented to the world our HQs in Syria? Or growing foreign exchange reserves and food production? Apparently civilized people can’t get complacent about the fact that the attack on the Finance of the Russian Federation, to repel which the West seemed impossible, only undermined our economy, she resisted. And now is gradually recovering, overcoming the crisis and, hopefully, become stronger and will be better to keep the strike.
