Since the beginning of the year on 1 August, the growth rate was 3.9%, said on Thursday Rosstat. Compared to last year, when the rate was at 9.4%, the last “achievements” of inflation look quite modest. And if to consider that in the last week of July was deflation, and the Central Bank “news” reported that according to estimates the price decline will continue in August and September, this year has all the chances to keep inflation within the projected framework. And for the first time in 2013, i.e. since the beginning of the second wave of the crisis, inflation will be determined by a single digit. But is it positive?
Followed by the message about the change of consumer prices in the last week of July, when there was deflation, Rosstat published the results for the July. Indicators were quite modest. In July, prices rose by 0.5%, YTD — 3.9% (July 2015 — 0,8%, from the beginning of year — 9,4%).
“In July compared to the previous month, food prices on average have not changed. On the dynamics of food prices is primarily influenced by a decrease of fruit and vegetable products,” commented Rosstat the end of July.
So, the price of vegetables fell 11.2%. Champions were tomatoes and cucumbers new crop, which fell by 27.6% and 23.4%, respectively. Among other observable types of foods have become cheaper: beef liver (0.6%, mutton — by 0.3%, pork — by 0.2%, cheese — by 0.2%. However not all the products were cheaper. For example, buckwheat has risen by 3.3%. The growth of prices on 0,8–1,5% was observed on chicken, chocolate, alcohol.
However, the fact of deflation (prices in the last week of July fell by 0.1%) leaves hope that once the Central Bank will be able not only to keep inflation within targets, but also to achieve a definite target, which was unavailable to the regulator in 2013 (6,47%). In 2014, prices rose by 11,35%, and in 2015 — of 12.91%.
At the end of last year, for example, the head of audit chamber Tatyana Golikova confidently claimed that to reduce prices by half is simply unrealistic, and therefore insisted that we should not set knowingly unreachable goal.
However, the Central Bank are confident in their abilities. The official representative of the regulator told “Izvestia” that the Bank of Russia does not change the target forecast annual inflation to 5-6%. While the Central Bank expects that deflation will last long enough.
— Favorable forecast for the harvest gives us reason to expect a seasonal decline in prices in August and September for food products, primarily for fruit and vegetables, — said in the Central Bank.
The Central Bank, most likely, your target does not comply, but the barb is within 0.5 percentage points, says the economist, associate Professor, HSE Anton tabah. Although, he said, deflation him will not help. According to the economist, in the October–December period work delayed effect of election expenses.
— In addition, the rising prices will affect cheap oil and the ruble, which, according to my forecast, will weaken in the autumn, — says Anton Tabah.
Investment analyst at EXANTE Kirill Kononovich also believes that deflation will end with the arrival of autumn and will not have a significant impact on the annual inflation rate.
— In its essence it is a temporary phenomenon. It is called non-structural changes in the economy, — the analyst believes.
In his opinion, the key factor that will influence inflation and allow her to stay at a relatively low level, is the reduction of solvent demand of the population. Kirill Kononovich believes that consumer spending, the fading summer, will quicken in the fall. Anton tabah sure that she is going to stagnate because recovery requires some decisive action by the Central Bank. For example, points to the economist, if the Central Bank will lower its key interest rate significantly, and this bill will increase lending. In addition, to encourage consumer demand could increase the income, he said.
— In the comments on the key rate of the Central Bank noted that it expects GDP growth for the second half of this year. However, economic recovery in the country is impossible without growth of incomes of the population. In such circumstances, inflation is inevitable, ” says Kirill Kononovich.
In his opinion, what is helping to curb inflation — decline in real income and consumer spending — next year will perform against the Central Bank.
— The target level of 4% by the end of next year seems unlikely, — predicts analyst.
