As you know, as a result of deterioration in external economic conditions in key Russian export sectors, but also because of the growing desire of the West to punish Russia for conducting an independent foreign policy, financial and economic conditions within the country, to some extent, showed negative dynamics. First of all, it impact on industry and specifically on its manufacturing sectors. However, the analysis of how the Russian economy runs current difficulties and the comparison with the situation of 2008-2009 provide an opportunity to say that at the present time the program of import substitution begin to really work and this leads to smoother and less traumatic process of transformation of the Russian economy in the direction of greater independence of the resource from mineral components and increase production of goods with high added value.
So, according to the Center for macroeconomic analysis and short term forecasting, production volume and investment declined by only 3.4% and 5.8% respectively, while in the period of global financial and economic crisis, the decline amounted to 9-11% in the corresponding positions. Thus the rate of negative dynamics for investment and index of industrial production by the end of 2015 2.5-3 times less than it was during the previous crisis. Also quite revealing data on profitability and solvency, primarily in manufacturing industries: in 2008-2009, the profitability fell by 9.1%, by the end of 2015 – on the contrary increased by 3.9%, which is in partly due to the devaluation of the ruble and the increase of competitiveness of domestic products. Solvency in the last crisis and even went down by 22.4%, while now at least a little, but grew by 1.9%, and this suggests that the non-payment crisis in the industry and no financial transactions, including cooperation in the chain of counterparties, are fine.
It should be noted the fact that, according to Rosstat, the decline in industrial production was ceased in January recorded certain growth in production volumes. The level of production in comparison with December increased by 0.4% cleaned of seasonality. Meanwhile, compared with the corresponding month of the previous year the index increased in January to 97.3% compared to 94.5% in December. Experts say that these phenomena are caused by a number of objective and subjective factors. First of all, we had a pretty cold January, which gave a measurable increase in electricity and heat production (by 3.7% against December). Secondly, the surveys noted the increase in reserves (mainly intermediate goods) that is connected with expectations of their appreciation after the devaluation at the end of last year.
Quite interesting and the figures of the export-import balance in terms of sectors. So, for example, the export of Russian vehicles in January 2016 compared with a November 2015 increased by 4.1%, while building materials and glass – 1.8%. The import of investment goods in January 2016, compared with the same month of 2015 fell by almost 20%, as well as consumer goods – there is negative dynamics of imports amounted to 19.7%. All this shows that Russia has significantly reduced the dependence on foreign goods, thus increasing the production of the private high-tech industries, and in some cases even increasing exports. And this trend can not but rejoice.
It is also necessary to state yet again the beneficial effect of the devaluation of last year (compared to 2014) earnings in the economy substantially increased by 53.1%. Impressive growth in profitability recorded by the market primarily on the commodity sectors. So, in production in 2015, it was 32.2%, in the processing of raw materials, which is 10.3%. In the sectors oriented to final demand, profitability grew markedly weaker, reaching 10.3 percent. In the investment sector has remained at a relatively low level of 2.3%.
This maintains a positive dynamics in growth of production of a wide range of products of the chemical industry – plus of 2.1% by December, including pharmaceutical, cosmetics and household care industry. By 2.8% over the last three months has increased production of vehicles and equipment, including a rather notable increase of +5.5% in the automotive industry. A 2% increase in production of food products (including tobacco), and that especially pleases, 1.6% increase in the sector of manufacture of electrical and optical equipment.
Because of that, it is no wonder the numbers look for investment in fixed capital: leaders in the chemical industry with an increase of 14%, followed by the above-mentioned electrical equipment industry with the growth rate of investment at 12.2%, and closes the three leaders of the mining sector from 10.7% increase.
And already on these data it is clearly seen that demonstrate the growth of the industry, who are actively involved in the program of import substitution that has caused a rapid growth of investments and the increase in gross output in the General balance of the economy at the zero values of growth. It is obvious that manufacturing was able to find a certain point of profitability, especially in low ruble anti-crisis measures of the government and contractionary policy of the state. Being cut off from Western financial markets, the lending industry and the banking sector begin to more actively seek domestic sources of growth and investment activity.
All this allows with cautious optimism and hope for continued growth in the manufacturing sector with a high level of redistribution. It is possible to assert with confidence that no sudden and catastrophic drop in industrial production in 2008-2009, now happened, the economy has demonstrated the ability to adapt to adverse conditions and find new growth models.
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