Fights around the return of the progressive income tax scale do not cease since the introduction in 2001 of the scale is “flat” – 13%. According to Professor of Higher school of Economics Igor Nikolaev, the growth of income tax is around the corner – growth rates depending on the value of the income can enter as early as 2018. And this step will ensure the unconditional victory of Vladimir Putin in the presidential election.
Collection of tax on income of physical persons (NDFL) with the introduction of the 13% of the scale has increased dramatically: employers began to emerge from the shadows. But the recent crisis changed the situation. The voters want blood. The rich should pay more taxes than the poor.
The authorities still keep the pause. The flat scale of personal income tax much simpler to administer than a progressive. However…
No one doubts that the size of the tax burden directly affects both GDP growth and standard of living. Especially if we are talking about emerging economies, such as Russia.
In principle, the us tax burden is significantly lower than in the EU and the US. But higher than in China, India and the countries of the Customs Union. Not by chance before the collapse of the ruble increasing number of Russian companies had been re-registered in Kazakhstan, where VAT – 11% ( us 18%) and the profit tax is the same (20%).
When started the last crisis, President Vladimir Putin was not tired to repeat that until 2018 the tax burden on business will not grow. Formally it is – the basic tax rates (VAT, profit tax and personal income tax) are not changed.
But not so simple. According to the researches of the Russian Union of Industrialists and entrepreneurs (RSPP) and other public organizations of business, finally, consulting and audit Agency, BCF, fiscal oppression, since 2009, is only growing. Its stabilization is no question.
How is this happening? Because tax rates really don’t grow.
It’s all in the account. I mean, what the actual taxes and what not.
For example, insurance payments to extra-budgetary funds are taxes or not? Any employer will say that, of course, are taxes, as they are binding, irrevocable and will not be returned. At the session of economic club FBK this thesis confirmed tax lawyer Sergey Pepeliaev.
Moreover, according to his calculations, only to the Federal budget in a year will wear up to 70 types of different kinds of payments. For example, it is not only about insurance contributions and customs payments, but also about the payment for the publication of original works.
There is also regional and municipal fees. So, according to Pepeliaev, up to 1% of GDP could be different kinds of environmental payments, if, at the time, they would not have been prevented.
However, all is not so scary.
A rougher, sounded the statement of the Professor of the Higher school of Economics Igor Nikolaev. He was confident that on the eve of the presidential elections in 2018 the government will be forced to return to a progressive income tax scale.
Why? The crisis continues to deepen, the impoverished voters. The Communist party and “Fair Russia” constantly called upon to make the income tax progressive scale. The indicators are different. The idea is that their impoverished voters realized that the members of the Forbes list will remove much more than them.
If any budget effect? Hardly. Most of the income of oligarchs formed at our borders. But Nikolaev stressed that the political effect of such a decision by Putin will be deafening.
Political, definitely Yes. But the economic question. Games with taxes, as you know, from the history of great Britain and France, lead only to revolution. Because the parliaments in European countries was created due to fiscal disputes with the kings.
