Little conspiracy: a possible scenario of the presidential campaign in 2018.
Over the past week there have been a lot of strange. Putin pulls of the Ministry of defense (called the “high risk” incident with the flight of Russian military aircraft near a us ship in the Black sea), Matvienko — Spring (said that when the adoption of a package of anti-terrorist amendments requires extensive preliminary discussions, and the negative reaction to him is “a big loss of power”).
But the biggest scandal of recent days: first, a theater Director Konstantin Raikin has criticized the Russian authorities for indulging hooligans disrupting modern productions, and has made the threat of censorship in art. In response close to the Kremlin, biker Alexander Zaldostanov nicknamed the Surgeon said that “Raikin” want “to turn the country into the gutter”. Press Secretary of the President of Russia Dmitry Peskov suggested Zaldostanov to apologize, but he publicly refused to do so. And was later supported by the head of Chechnya Ramzan Kadyrov, who together acted against the showing of the play “Jesus Christ superstar”.
That is, we see that already the officials have been critical of the radical line, the former mainstream in recent years and inculcated gostelekanaly actually as official. How can this be explained?
Of course, there is a hypothesis that Kadyrov and Zaldostanov just don’t know whose press Secretary Peskov, but I don’t think it is true.
We see the Kremlin trying to show that he and the radical conservatives — not quite the same thing. And Kadyrov and brilliant Surgeon helps raise the degree of controversy and confirm this simple thesis.
One of the most popular viewpoints among my friends, one way or another connected to work with the Kremlin, says that nothing happens by accident — from the publication in the media before any public statements. You would think that the radicals nurtured by the government, left from-under control of the Kremlin. But there is another version, one might say — conspiracy.
One of my clever friend always advises me to keep in mind that Putin’s natural role is “moderate”, “arbiter”, etc.
Now, let’s remember that in parallel to public and non-public space, there is a debate about the future contours of the presidential campaign, and important for the Kremlin component of its legitimacy. For example, it is believed that the only real legitimation of the campaign will be the participation of Alexei Navalny as the main opponent of Vladimir Putin, who wants to be elected for a new term (probably the latter). After all, how can there be legitimacy if Putin will compete with the standard range of Zyuganov, Mironov, Zhirinovsky, Yavlinsky well plus? If Putin wants to win the election so that his victory recognized within the country, and, what is more important in the international community, he needs a strong opponent. Need some simple, clear evil, which the hero of the campaign must Shine to win.
But who said that the image of evil must necessarily be a liberal orientation?
Confrontation with evil liberals, sponsored by the West, wishing to return the country to damn the ‘ 90s and… with the parliamentary elections a total of 3%? Or try to find another (much more convenient) sparring partner… a radical on the opposite flank.
“If not Putin, then DLNR! If not Putin, then total censorship, a ban on abortion, the monopoly of state ideology and dictates of religion!”.
If not Putin, Kadyrov (but this particular variant is unlikely), Surgeon, the Elderly, Fedorov, Enteo, Milon, Arrows, — in principle, even a new figure you can manage to spin. And to unleash it, by the way, the hands of the liberal flank that is loud terrified the new absolute evil, and thus ensure the “absolute evil” desired degree of publicity.
By the way, in this configuration, it is possible to produce in the elections even Bulk (if you want to complicate the party). Bulk and conventional Milon are each other’s throats to chew on the cooler debates Hillary and trump and win universal evil, of course, Vladimir Putin.
Risky strategy? Yes, because the radical from the flank can gain an unpredictable lot — I don’t tend to underestimate the laws of entropy. But this strategy beautiful in their own way and perform the main task — to ensure the legitimacy of the elections and to gather under its banner even moderately dissatisfied, which is still in the linear choice of the embrace of Putin, and not Milonov or Kadyrov.
In a situation when the Kremlin will not be able to respond to a real crisis, the most convenient option is the creation of man-made crisis.
