Hybrid war ended: On or nuclear war, or massive retreat of the Kremlin
In modern wars there are certain laws. Before the war the population for some time, pumped up military propaganda. Is the dehumanization of the enemy, create an enemy image, etc., etc. In the country of the victim from nowhere appear the Moldovan/Georgian/Ukrainian “fascists”. Now all this is not observed. Information about “Ukrainian terrorists saboteurs” give dosed and among them even there are no members of “Right sector”.
For comparison, in the spring of 2014. In three Central Russian TV channels, the expression “the right sector” sounded from 300 to 400 times a day. Not counting the “junta”, “fascists” and other “Bandera”. Now it is not. According to the laws of the preparation and conduct of the war, now the war will not. Hybrid action, but not a big conventional war.
The purpose of all these “exercises,” activate “px” and “arrests of saboteurs” — to exert pressure on Ukraine and the West and force them to the next round of negotiations. This is a banal blackmail. Steinmeier today spoke with Lavrov. Herr Sergei asked Nord Stream-2, special status ARDLE and humanitarian mission (in fact, a temporary truce) in Syria. So that everything goes according to plan and war plans.
Detention “Ukrainian saboteurs” must be considered from the point of view of casus belli. Regardless of the matching details to the real facts. Casus belli must be considered from the point of view of blackmail, threat of war, not the war itself. The exercises and strengthening work of the “px” there.
The Russians hold a mobilized state before the Duma elections. On the way to the Kremlin will announce one or two victories. Then on the “saboteurs” will forget like last time. Then they were 25 Grand, who first confessed and then quietly disappeared.
Ukraine and the West will continue bargaining. May be able to come up with some stuff. But in the current environment it is bargaining from a position of weakness to the Kremlin, not from a position of strength. In USA this is made clear by answering the presented casus belli “do not try to divert our attention from the aggression in the Donbas and the occupation of the Crimea”.
And then, either a nuclear war or a massive retreat of the Kremlin, which declared victory. In between these two actions, no significant reserves there. To turn off the gas, to organize terrorist attacks and cyber attacks, to impose counter-sanctions, ignite hybrid war, to send under the guise of “vacationers” regular troops. This list has tried everything, and nothing good happened.
