Ruslan Grinberg: “the Government wants us to from the hospital to the grave themselves paid for everything. It’s wrong”
Ruslan Grinberg
I phoned our guest today immediately. However, in the interview, I realized what was happening. His phone never stopped ringing — calls are transmitted almost constantly. He really “belonged to himself”. Called, first of all, my colleagues, members of the media eager to receive comments, called officials and foreign experts, called close people. In between work at the Institute of Economics RAS, which my guest had a long head and just this year gave the reins to a colleague, and an interview to TV channel “Russia” we drove to the nearest restaurant, where he discussed the following issues.
So, about what a mistake the government of the Russian Federation and why it doesn’t want to stabilize the ruble, should we expect the increase in oil prices, how to spend Russian rubles for ordinary citizens spoke with Ruslan Grinberg, economist and co-chair of the Moscow economic forum, the scientific Director of the Institute of Economics, RAS. Red thread of discussion was the so-called “10 strokes” in the new economic policy that will emerge from economic depression and discouragement.
“SP”: — Ruslan Semenovich, is it worth it to wait for higher oil prices? What happens to the world economy?
— In the short term the oil price is likely to increase. But in the long term — will not increase. I get the feeling that the oil era, about which we talk all the time, is really over.
Of course, the recovery of the world economy sooner or later will be held. The demand will increase and, respectively, with a stable proposal, the price of oil may rise. But in a global sense, the rapid growth of oil prices will not. Today, the world is making great strides in reducing energy intensity. Wind energy, small hydropower, technology is developing rapidly! I have the feeling that the world gets rid of oil dependence. Our technique requires less and less oil as possible. It seems that this reverence for oil and oil products, which was and is now, will be gone. Of course, it will not instantaneously, but gradually the dependence will be weakened.
It makes no sense to wait for higher oil prices. Usually respectable, decent, respected outlets are saying about the price of oil at $ 35-45 per barrel. Here in this corridor, I think, and will. This, of course, is not 100-110 dollars per barrel. Therefore, Russia needs to suck it up and do something else.
“SP”: — but there Were contributions from oil since 2004 and a significant. Today they are loaded in the bins? Where are they? Whether in Russia, the petrodollars have time to go to the development?
— At one time the money didn’t go anywhere. The government was concerned about the so-called “safety cushion”. We are waiting for the end of the world! But, experience shows that when the world ends — “airbag” does not help. It is now clear that the government was wrong about the oil policy, it was necessary to spend more on non-oil production. Now there is vivid discussion about this. Everyone is talking about import substitution. The rhetoric was good.
“SP”: — Airbag accumulated. It can now take and send to development?
— No. Now it’s gone. “Where is the money”? Now we earn 200 billion dollars less. Economics almost never works, all lining up with hat in hand to the budget. And the budget doesn’t know what to do. To all sisters on earrings!
“SP”: — Mikhail Delyagin said that the budget lying without movement 10,2 trillion rubles, this is the official information from the website of the Ministry of Finance.
— It is also very interesting. 10 trillion is the money that we would have to spend, and officials are afraid to do it. This money should be directed at the education and health care. We have always a disaster. But the government, instead of focusing on the financing of these spheres of education, health, science and culture, attempts to achieve fiscal balance. Very sad that the government wants to commercialize the four most important areas of life. It wants us from the hospital to the grave themselves paid for everything. This is wrong.
“SP”: — What will happen to the ruble?
— The ruble is currently being shaped by the market. The Central Bank in late 2014 refused to regulate the exchange rate, arguing that it would be better. But since we know that both the exchange rate and the economy, and the country, and budget — all depends on the price per barrel of oil, in simple language it means — how much will oil cost much will it cost the ruble. Now oil prices have increased slightly, and the ruble have increased slightly. If oil prices will plummet, relatively speaking, from 40 to 20 dollars per barrel, the ruble will fall. I think this is a scandal and a disgrace for a great country. In my view it is necessary to adjust the course, it is necessary to introduce foreign exchange restrictions. All the rules are known!
With the help of simple steps which can actually stabilize the ruble exchange rate. But the government somehow takes from it. First, the whole world supports them — and they are happy. Secondly, they are afraid to do it for purely ideological reasons, believing that it will be a return to the Soviet Union. In fact, these thoughts are bullshit.
Need to do the following: all foreign currency earnings to be exchanged for rubles. Everything must change, each participant of foreign economic activity. While the government does not want to do until it chooses someone from the rich exporters, “invite him to dinner” and says there that “we know about your billions, so you still help the Motherland, exchange them for rubles”. I believe that this is unproductive, to put it mildly. So I’m for regulation, the introduction of a currency corridor. It can even not officially announce, but we need to step in and insinuate that “we are ready to defeat all the speculators”.
“SP”: — What will happen in the fall? How are we gonna survive?
— Well, how? All in different ways. Some will survive, others not so much. Now we have not the time Sofia Rotaru sang: “I, you, he, she, together — the whole country is together happy family”. For the country it’s all very sad because the business disoriented, he doesn’t understand the rules of the game, he doesn’t understand, what will be the exchange rate, and this is very important for the formation of business plans to attract investors. Why is the government not concerned about the volatility of the exchange rate, I don’t understand. The amplitude of the crazy! And most importantly, as they say, no one is sure in the future. As expected in the present capitalism.
“SP”: — the Question about the sore. High interest rates mean high incomes of bankers and at the same time mean the curtailment of production in Russia. Here in Japan the key rate on loans 15 years is zero, while in Russia the Central Bank in a single year four times raised the stakes. Such decisions of the Russian Central Bank threaten the competitiveness of domestic enterprises. Your criticism of the actions of the Central Bank.
— The Japanese economy has always been stronger than ours, but now they have also noted zero growth. In our country inflation is very high, and the interest rate cannot be below inflation, because then the inflation will rise further. Sin Central Bank that he caused inflation, running large devaluation.
In fairness it should also be noted that investments in the country, only 10% depend on the interest rates on loans. We spend the rest of the companies themselves, organizing a self-financing system. Therefore, the high cost of credit is important, but limited. I also note that the risks are very high. If we were bankers, we would not give anyone money, because “conceal”, “don’t give up”. Especially now that the sluggish economy.
For example, I as a banker meet with any capitalist engaged in the manufacture and sale of stools. I see that his “luck” with stools — he had already sold 1000 copies and he has more orders tomorrow at 2000 pieces, and the day after 5,000 of the stools. Then I calmly give him credit. But, when you come to people who never actually sold anything, and the General economic situation is such that everything is paralyzed, the Bank does not know, he will give the borrower the money or not. In the General atmosphere of despondency, panic and anxiety the interest rate does not matter.
“SP”: — How to get out of this depression?
— That’s a good question! This is the main question, I would even say existential.
In our country there are two schools of thought, two “gang”: economists, politicians and experts. The first band includes the government and all quasi-governmental service structure. They say that we need to rely on private businesses because the state still no use. For this reason, they have to grind the investment climate, reduce taxes, however, do raise them…
“SP”: — This is all we see for 25 years.
— Yes, and for 25 years there is talk about reducing inflation. However, they fail to bring inflation to the level of normal countries. Supposedly, if they get inflation 4%, then you’re gonna see the Paradise: cheap loans, potential geniuses get out of the oven and begin to build a “Googly”, “Siemens” and “Nokia”. That’s such a sad tale in which he believes and the government. However, Mr. Ulyukayev made an eloquent confession, said “Golden words” that “the risks from public investment is much less than risks from any other investment.” Translated into Russian language it means, what do we love the state, hate the government, we must clearly be aware that if it is not to invest — no one will invest. That is, whatever the state was not thieving and inefficient, but should be PPP (public private partnership).
There is PPP (public private partnership). This is when influential traders are asking Mr Putin to give them a couple of millenicom that they discovered some trick. For example, the famous filmmakers we do. I think this is absolutely counterproductive and anti-social idea.
PPP is when the government with the help of clever finds serious projects, which it initiates, creates, finances systematically and makes them palatable to potential private investors. Of course, the risks are large from the state. Our people are not used to doing menial work, we’re all managers, and on the other hand — “the graduates of the orphanage”. And money play a hypertrophied role high. We are all poor, we have none, nothing is acquired. We all five works with its tongue hanging out because of this professionalism are losing, not learning, not growing, some “show-off” and the simulation as in the political system, and professional successes, as well as reports, reports, reports, and so in all spheres. The substance is not our question. We all “Margery”. But on the other hand, we are fine — people like Vladimir Vladimirovich, 85 people out of 100 and blame Obama.
“SP”: — Love love… And how to get out of depression?
— Me for President (smiles).
“SP”: — the Minister of industry who will take?
— Minister of agriculture — Pavel Grudinina. And the Minister of industry — Konstantin Babkin. Beautiful, young, knowing, understanding. Knows both Russia and the West. But You, Xenia, will you be my press Secretary (smiles).
“SP”: — Well. Agreed! According to the results of the opinion poll, two-thirds (65%) of Russians believe that the authorities should devise a new course of economic policy and the transition to the new industrialization. What new economic course do You suggest? Which program of action?
— The new government must fulfill the 10 most important points, “10 strokes”.
The first point is to dramatically change tax policy. All the money that economic agents spend on investment, on production, on the creation of new jobs should not be taxed.
Second, we need to introduce progressive taxation on income.
The third point is to achieve average specific weight of expenditures of the state budget for science, education, health and culture. We need to stop the commercialization of these sectors.
Fourth — it is necessary to increase the debt economy. We’re the world Champions for the payment of public debt, we only have 15% of public debt to GDP. For example, in America — 98%, the vaunted Germany — 80%. And we rule! Paid, as fools, as if we don’t need money.
Fifth, we must spend money on industrial projects.
Sixth — always a win-win to spend on infrastructure and mega-projects such as high-speed Railways, bridges, pipelines, space launch. We need mass housing construction for the young and it is uncontested! Next you need to choose ten priorities, ten of the projects where Russia is still strong. Today we can’t compete neither with China, where consumer goods cheaper and better, nor with Germany, where the best engineering. But, we must give the world the brand “made in Russia” because now ashamed not to have anything “Made in Russia”. At the moment we have trucks, helicopters, launch vehicles, but this just a little. Someone who will be able to find a niche world, we need to help everyone, and in exports.
The seventh paragraph. We in Moscow are strong hypercentralization funds. This is absolutely wrong. Need to distribute money to the regions. And the regions should care about the government. We need to teach people that they disposed of their destiny. There is such a principle of subsidiarity. This is a very good principle on which funds are allocated geographically. For example, if you were building something in the village, for example, school or kindergarten, then give it to the village Council. If you’re building something that affects the interests of the city, such as roads, give this to the discretion of the city. If you do something even more ambitious, give in charge in the Republic. But global issues, such as weapons and things Moscow has to decide! This is very important and it’s a real Federalism.
Eighth paragraph — the massive support for agriculture. Need to make a substitution did not depend on currency, as is happening now. The villagers today in a panic. The government should help them without any currency exchange rate.
The ninth paragraph is not to be greedy in relation to the post-Soviet countries. If you want to have a strong integration — you pay for it!
The tenth point is very sensitive — the alternation of power as an important lever of economic policy. For example, there are Chinese, there are Americans that different people have different notions of good evil. So here they are, independently from each other came to the conclusion that what ever you are talented supervisor, two terms “Bob” and all the “walk”. Because the more rules, even the most enlightened genius, the big disaster is waiting for someone to come after him.
Here are the 10 beats that you want to implement.
“SP”: — Recently Dmitry Medvedev has cut the subsistence level until 9452 roubles. It is noted that “cutting” is due to the cheapening of food in the consumer basket. And You, “tsenovich”, noticed a decline in the prices of food in stores?
— I even as the Germans say “sprachlos” (with it. — “speechless”). Can not yet comment on. I like zenovic see what prices generally are rising. Perhaps the government has included in the consumer basket of low-quality surrogate products, such as dairy products from palm oil, so the prices dropped. But, let’s not forget that the health of the nation depends on the quality of food.
“SP”: — I advise to buy the regular citizens?
— I would advise to buy long-lasting things. Because the prices for oil again will take a bearish trend, the price on imported goods will rise.
“SP”: — Now You together with a famous industrialist Constantine Babkina escort Moscow economic forum (IEF). “The results of the market reforms. What’s next?” — this is the main theme this year. How do you plan a forum to influence the government?
— Moscow economic forum is held already for the fourth time. It attracts more and more attention, had registered more than 3,000 people. People are longing for change. The truth is our people strange reason, considering that we have an outstanding foreign policy and internal disgusting — as if it’s done by different people! People naively think that would come on our forum and we will invent some miracle cure that will help to come out of General panic, discouragement, and vegetation. But we will fight, we will send our submission to Mr Putin, and Mr Medvedev how our country should move on. Of course, it is naive to think that they read our paper, will cry and say, “Where have they been?”, “Bring here Lyapkin-Tyapkina!”, “Are we going to do with you reform.” We are not so naive. We want young people, and not young, not into a panic, so they studied the party program and consciously chose them, so they went to the polls, as we have election year. This is very important because, some no, but we have a space for democracy. And need to use it for the new people were coming that would affect those who today make decisions.
Recently learned that in Australia there is a rule that if people ignore elections, don’t want to go to the polls, they discharged a penalty of 10 Euro. And, for the first time — the penalty, and the second is already a deprivation of liberty. So filed become citizens. It would be nice for us to introduce such a rule. Our people people are responsible.
