Maxim Trudolyubov – the people, money, elections and fear of the Kremlin before uncontrolled elements
“Russian society is amazingly slow. You can take away his money, humiliate, bring down on his head the threat, the laws of Spring, penguins on the streets, to take Turkey to return to Turkey and always the answer will be about – well, somehow we can spare it,” – wrote in “Facebook” the Explorer “Sheets” Maxim Trudolyubov.
“This potential is not exhausted and will still be exhausted… not About the citizens, it makes no sense to say they get less, pay more, but still thankful – don’t kill. But I don’t believe that the compression in infinitely. Just many more places where squeezed. Actually this space uromania is the main hope of the Kremlin, the basis of confidence that even at their age is enough, and then the flood.”
The Russian government in July agreed to the freezing of budget expenditures, the country introduced austerity measures. President Vladimir Putin calls the main task of the authorities to maintain macroeconomic stability.
The authorities are obviously concerned. Social articles of the budget, as far as possible retain, although even cutting defense spending. When the metallurgical company “Mechel” has threatened with bankruptcy, she came to the aid of the big banks, although at one time the head of the company Igor Zyuzin has been a public beating from Putin, who has promised “to send him to the doctor.” According to Agency Reuters, “Mechel” saved from the fear that over 60 thousand people will lose their jobs (well, because of the bankruptcy of the company was dealt a blow by Gazprombank).
Putin, as reported by Bloomberg, entrusted to find ways out of the tens of millions of Russians, working in the shadow economy. And as usual, the government hopes to return to the Russian economy investment.
A protracted crisis will be the backdrop for the upcoming parliamentary and then presidential elections, which, as Maxim Trudolyubov wrote a column for Vedomosti, “Russian political leaders have set ourselves the awesome task of conducting elections that will give the desired result, but it will be without fraud”.
In an interview with Radio Liberty Trudolyubov says the Russian authorities are trying to find the line beyond which the decline of life go into a bad stage:
– Recently, the Kremlin clearly agreed with the idea of the government to freeze spending for three years at the nominal level 15,78 trillion rubles. Will this freeze real is another matter, but there is a clear signal that some articles will be reduced, and very strong. Radical 20 times – will be reduced spending on development of the Far East, the Baikal region; twice will cut the program of socio-economic development of the Crimea. In fact already frozen the growth of defense spending. The social costs of the Kremlin and the government will seek to preserve, although it’s hard. Indexation of pensions is behind inflation, and we see a reduction in consumption. And we see over one and a half years, the drop in consumer confidence, although it slightly increased now. And incomes are down, their growth has not recovered.
So the reality is that people have less money, they spend less, there are studies that people save on meds. Higher school of Economics in the study showed that 38 percent of the respondents faced financial difficulties in recent years: delay of payment of utilities, payment of loans and so on. The Kremlin is trying something with this to do. The salvation of the oligarch companies – a policy it has always been. It is believed that this is social policy: to save company to save jobs. The fact that these jobs bring very little money or do not bring, – this is the second question. The Kremlin, it is important to show everyone that he has a very low unemployment. Yes, Russia has very low unemployment but high underemployment, when people are working formally, but in reality otherwise, trying to Supplement their family income. The situation of families with children has deteriorated. The social situation is far from catastrophic, of course, but it is getting worse. I think that the Kremlin is trying to do the maximum of what can be done without changing the key policy framework. And obvious discontent there, and people understand that other hope, besides the Kremlin, they are still there, so I say that citizens are willing to tolerate it.
But if citizens are willing to endure, then why sacrifice in defense spending, why do we worry about population, if it meekly ready to be squeezed?
Nobody knows how uncomplaining population. Because in Russia there is practically no free media and other feedback channels. Yes, the Kremlin does secret surveys, paints a kind of picture, but when there are no independent organizations and media, still the picture will be distorted. They understand that perfectly, I’m sure. In Russia, there is no legitimate way to Express their dissatisfaction – you can’t re-elect someone or to go to the demonstration. Come to the demonstration – go to jail. So I think that the Kremlin, in fact, leads to smart policy, because it understands that much pressure on citizens not. Indeed, all sorts of military adventures are very interesting people, people love to watch it, but the Kremlin’s holding here quite deliberately, because he understands that play is impossible. I think they’re trying to find the line beyond which the decline of life go into a bad stage.
– What model build of the current Russian government? It seems that they are prone to a market economy, talking about helping business, but are hampered by the fact that the market economy requires free elections, independent judiciary and so on?
– Today is a big issue for the Kremlin, and the society is the advancement of private initiative. This includes entrepreneurship, and initiatives in the community, assistance, charity, organizations, associations, up to leisure, but independent, from the bottom. Social development of the kind the Kremlin does not carry on the spirit, afraid. This uncontrolled element, so it crushed. And it is clear that in this system, in which Russia is now, will they push always. I don’t believe one second in actually serious about improving the investment climate, because the improvement of the investment climate, meaningful, includes such things as an independent judiciary and predictable enforcement. The climate is still such things are not in the Constitution and none of the law: the actual high pressure from the law enforcement and intelligence agencies that are in business and think all business in Russia to their. That’s the situation you just need to remove, to eliminate completely. But there is no sign that today’s Kremlin is willing and able to do it. The truth of life is that the pressure on the private initiative is huge and it is growing. I don’t see any sign that would say that now they will hold elections and let the situation. Elections will be held, and then immediately start the cycle of presidential elections and the nervousness of the Kremlin on this issue. 1917 election turns out, the year before the election, he is also symbolic of 100 years of the revolution. So I think that no diminution of pressure on private initiative will not, and will only increase the pressure and attempt to make everything manageable.
– Here Putin instructs to bring people from the shadows. On large forums discussing how to make an attractive investment climate. You think they’re just playing, talking among themselves, that, they say, it is nonsense, or is it a form of self-deception, doublethink?
– Government departments responsible for the economy, there are very professional people, many of them could work in any government in the world and would be on top. They understand how to improve the business climate in Russia. But they work in a very narrow corridor of possibilities, which does not define them. The Ministry of economic development has a clear road map for the advancement of Russia in the rating Doing business, for example, and many things are being done. Russia even climbs up the scale of this rating, and very good. But the trouble is that no Ministry of the economy can predict that in some point out, for example, Mikhail Prokhorov and say, “I’m going to sell my assets, because I no longer can.” One message of weight for the people taking real investment decisions, ten times more than any slow, albeit loyal, competent attempts to improve the investment climate at the level of administrative procedures and on the level of taxation. The level of taxation in Russia is good, so for individuals it is generally beautiful.
There is a large policy that is born in the minds of a very limited circle of people, and we don’t even know who these people are
But the climate is determined not only by nominal figures, and those people who are in the government responsible for the regulation, for the economy and banks have no relation to the real processes that occur at a higher level, the relations between the Kremlin and the oligarchs. Not to mention the fact that they are certainly not irrelevant to such decisions as, say, the annexation of Crimea or the operation in Ukraine, who go for the investment climate in a giant minus, cause of sanctions, just spoil the relationship with Russia, creating tremendous difficulties for foreign investors. That is, on the one hand, there is a competent government that works in General for the benefit of the Russian economy, and on the other hand, there is a great policy that is born in the minds of a very limited circle of people, and we don’t even know who these people are. But it is big politics in the end beats any competent individual initiative.
Valentin Baryshnikov
