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How real is the threat of destabilization in Tajikistan?

Насколько реальна угроза дестабилизации Таджикистана?

Since the end of last week in the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan are fierce fighting between Taliban insurgents and government forces. Exactly a year later after a 3-day hold under control the eponymous capital of neighbouring Tajikistan Kunduz province, the Taliban once again began, according to reports in the media, an active attack on the city. It is also reported that the flags of the militants managed to erect on the main square of Kunduz.

On 6 October, a number of information resources, referring to representatives of the government forces, the IRA, said that the city has already begun operations of Stripping, which means that last year’s “success” the Taliban failed to repeat that success. However, it is worth noting that this time from the activation of destructive forces affected not only the capital of Kunduz province, but, for example, the neighboring Baghlan province.

3 Oct “of Afghanistan.RU” has published the message, which States the following: “… the Militants went on the offensive in several districts of the province (Baglan – approx. ed.) blocked highways leading to the neighbouring province of Kunduz, and attempted to capture the town of Pul-I-Khumri, which is the provincial administrative center of the … currently in the province, fierce fighting continues. According to reports, the Taliban presence has been cleared several villages, but under Pol-e-khomri is still an ongoing active collision”. In other words, the Northern province of Afghanistan remain one of the priorities of fighters that can not disturb its Northern neighbor IRA – the Republic of Tajikistan.

By the way, the destabilization of the provinces of Kunduz and Baghlan was the cause of alerting the border troops of Tajikistan. In an interview to the press-Secretary of Department M. Ulughodjaev said the lack of attempts to break through the Tajik-Afghan border, however, the “border with the Afghan province of Kunduz districts of Tajikistan strengthened”. “… Also, on the second line of defense located military men of the Ministry of defense of Tajikistan. If necessary, they will come to the aid of frontier guards” – has added M. Ulughodjaev. So the script itself is a possible breakthrough of the border is unlikely.

However, the concerns and intentions of individual international actors in relation to Tajikistan. For example, there is a view according to which Central Asian state could become a kind of “base of extremists.” As a possible breakthrough, such a scenario can not be called as whatsoever doable. But some progress are made. In particular, we are talking about, at this point, remote from the site of the publication Politico (Virginia, USA) the material of authorship Boris Slavin, member of the Atlantic Council, author of “Bitter Friends, Bosom Enemies”

Slavin lists a number of actions that it believes are evidence of the operation of Washington’s implementation of a “comprehensive plan” for each of the countries of the Central Asian region: “… the penetration and implementation through close contact with the Minister of foreign Affairs in the security system of Tajikistan… the creation of the American NGOs in Dushanbe…”. Meet and interfacing, characteristic of overseas representatives. For example, speaking about Tajikistan Slavin points out “the placement of a certain number of US troops in Nagorno-Karabakh”. IA “Colossal”, in turn, suggests that the author had in mind Kurgan-Tyube. But the special is still interest in more.

“… the government of Tajikistan has the necessary capacity in terms of differences with Russia and cooperation with America. The US government, supporting the rule of Emomali Rahmon, will use Tajikistan as a conduit for extremist terrorist groups in Central Asia, then Russia, if necessary,” writes Slavin. In principle, such a cynical and inhumane approach Washington, in this case, Tajikistan has not surprised to be the sane part of the world community. Because this has happened more than once. But the objective arguments in favor of the real possibility of such variant of development of events there. Tajikistan is more than closely associated with the region and with Russia, which, besides, is a kind of guarantor of security of the RT itself in the framework of participation in the organization of the collective security Treaty in force more than friendly inter-state relations. That is, in fact, no destabilization of the North of Afghanistan, nor the destructive influence of the US in modern conditions (given the exclusive to Eurasia, the value of stability in Central Asia in General and Tajikistan in particular) should not be considered real threats to the territorial integrity and tranquility in Tajikistan.

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