Today the Russian economy is affected by two conceptual factors. The first, internal, is linked to the wrong economic course of our country. Second, an external factor, usually associated with the fall in oil prices.
A little consolation is that we are not alone in problems. The world really wants change. In this case the financiers want to keep the status quo, a speculative bubble. And these same financiers bet on Hillary Clinton as the new President in the United States. A month is left before the election, and if the panic will grow, Russia will not sit on the sidelines. The electoral map, Clinton is to blame Russia. A priori. The chart of debt America is growing exponentially.
At the same time, the heads of Sberbank and VTB, Gref and Kostin, bragging about record profits. And in the pockets of ordinary citizens, and in the budget of Russia of those billions adds nothing. Moreover, a significant part of the profits of these banks “out” from the country’s foreign players. In fact, banks in other countries it is severely punished. In Russia all on the contrary — no one prevents the removal of capital abroad. The hole in the budget in hundreds of billions of rubles neither Gref nor Kostina are not confused. Looks like a feast during the plague.
On the situation in Russia and America talked with the known publicist, the author of the book “Why Russia not America” Andrey Parshev.
“SP”: — Why do You think that the US economy will collapse? In the recent past You talked about it.
— Statements about the collapse of the US economy, I did not. But in 2002, participated in collective work, in which he participated as main authors of such famous economists as Mikhail Khazin, Mikhail Delyagin. It was about the fact that the world system built on the dollar is struggling, and we answered the question of when it will complete its existence. I together with Delyagin was of the opinion that the reserves of strength of this system is high and fast it will not collapse. The US has also strong positions in the financial and monetary sphere have a lot of defensive redoubts in the form of a strong economy, the armed forces carried out their political activities around the world. On the other hand in the US, increasing public debt, and it is not to the outside world and the inner. That is, the state is not able to collect enough taxes to pay for their existence. How long will it last and in what form will end is unclear, but without shocks will not do. Therefore, we can assume that in the reign of the next US President will be a major event in the sphere of economy and Finance, which will affect the entire world.
“SP”: — What happens and when?
— I believe that there will be a default on the payment obligations of the American state. Primarily on government bonds. In what form and when — is unclear. Unlike all the other countries, the United States ‘ debt is denominated in their own currency. In the event of acute need Americans simply devalue its currency. And that is their right as a sovereign state. In this case, they can easily pay off all that debt and, of course, get lots and lots of other problems.
This truly separates US from other debtor countries, whose debts are in foreign currency. With a foreign currency can’t do anything because you have to pay in the currency, which took.
“SP”: — the Country hostage?
— Yes, it’s their problem where they will get the money to pay it off.
“SP”: — And if the loan is in dollars and the devaluation occurs, then it is fine?
— In General, Yes. But if you take the balance, Russia is not such a great dollar debtor, as the United States. Accordingly, our savings in dollars will fall, too — so who knows, plus we will be or minus.
The problem is that economic processes inertia. And, in addition, they depend on subjective factors, from the behavior of market participants. So err with the timing of forecasts is very easy, the collapse of the Empire of the dollar did not happen, but… judge for yourself: in the above publication(“the collapse of the Empire of the dollar” in 2002 — ed.) Hazin explained why gold is undervalued, and agitated to transfer our reserves from dollars to gold. Then gold was $ 200 an ounce, now approaching $ 1,500 per ounce. And it’s not only gold has risen, it depreciated the dollar just in comparison with other currencies it is not very noticeable. And if Russia then moved their reserves into gold, now we would have a different situation.
“SP”: — why the dollar is awaiting a collapse?
— The us economy greatly suffers from the same difficulties that and some other developed countries. In the process of globalization, production has shifted to other regions.
“SP”: — States are now returned to their homeland.
— They are coming back with a big scratch. So far there are explicit or implicit negative trade balance between the United States and for example China.
United States to purchase goods and pay dollars, filling their whole world and their own country. If we take all means of payment throughout the world, but they are not sufficient to pay the entire national debt of the United States. The situation is unclear.
Photo: courtesy of the author
“SP”: — Maybe to pay the debts is not necessary? The economy would survive? Russia alone have to pay all the time. Other countries do not pay. National debt and China is huge.
— China’s large monetary and financial resources. I suspect that China can, if necessary, to reset all your debts in a year or two, that is to exchange their reserves for debts. In any case, the situation in the economy of China is much better than someone else.
However, there is a problem in the case of the destruction of the world monetary system based on the dollar, all will suffer. Suffer the United States, the affected countries have foreign exchange reserves denominated in dollars.
By the way, starting from a certain moment, the United States closed information about the amount of non-cash dollars that are available. This information is classified. The fact that paper is a minor part of the currency.
“SP”: — How big is the US debt?
— Figure utter. And in the last year, this figure rose very much. Our liberal-minded politicians usually try to avoid the subject state of the American economy. But the same Kudrin spoke about the unprecedented situation with the growth of US debt over the last year.
“SP”: — he probably has savings in dollars? He is going through.
— I think it’s not the most reasonable investment. The best is investing in businesses that will always work, like raw, and things like that.
“SP”: — And the industry will not always work?
“Companies operating in the immediate needs of people is stable enough. But another question that so far, holding companies sometimes go bankrupt, if inferior competitors. Moreover, given the imperfect nature of economic policy in Russia. In any case, big savings to keep “paper”, as Colonel Zakharchenko, is not the correct way to save a lot of money. Apparently, this was not the objective of the owners.
“SP”: — do you See the danger of civil war in Russia? Unfortunately, instead of new industrialization, the government could not withdraw from the commodity economy. Oil trillions eaten, and the portion abroad. The winning income is about 300 billion dollars. Does pre-revolutionary situation?
— I do not see the conditions for civil war and revolution. It is quite possible redistribution of property — nationalization or privatization.
The impoverishment of the society is understandable because Russia lives on oil and gas revenues. Oil prices dropped, and regardless of the absence or presence of sanctions, richer will not live. After the revolution, what benefits will Russia get? From the revolution of oil will not rise in price. That’s the problem.
“SP”: — Experts talk about changing the economic block of the government and economic policy in the real sector, in the direction of the industrial segment. Today the representatives of the economic bloc are going to change nothing. Because — no money.
— You have raised a difficult question. Any change in policy toward private production does not automatically result in an immediate enrichment of our economy. Just the opposite. Investments in production in the first stage is money, do not give profit. And only a few years from these investments can go return, but might not go if the products are not consumer.
“SP”: — afraid of wolves — in the woods not to go. At the same time, a reasonable government regulates demand and helps in the export of products. How to do this correctly?
20 years ago I wrote on this topic. How quickly 20 years have gone by! I cited the example of the African country of Ghana, which lives at the expense of export of cocoa beans. And when the world price of cocoa beans fell three times, the Ghanaian economy also collapsed.
Therefore, countries living at the expense of export of resources, needs to diversify in the first place, processing our own raw materials. In addition, some investments in its own production, at least in food.
In Russian history there were periods when we sold some raw materials and used the money to buy everything you need. Such was the policy under Alexander II, when it was delivered the very serious task of building rail networks. The idea was this — Russia sells grain and on revenue buys locomotives and rails. When collapsed, grain prices, the country was in a difficult situation. Therefore, when Alexander IIIwas assigned the task of industrialization. This industrialization held the best minds of the time.
Photo: courtesy of the author
In those years, the Finance Minister and then he was, in fact, the Prime Minister was Ivan Alekseevich vyshnegradsky, a well known mathematician, industrialist and financier. Among the main economic staff was Dmitri Ivanovich Mendeleev. These people contributed to the adoption of a particular economic policy, which allowed domestic capital, without fear of foreign competition, to develop its own production and to achieve good results, the fruits of which were collected during the reign of Nicholas II.
Nicholas II continued the policy of Alexander III, but in some ways receded. The main problem of all this politics in our country — a struggle between two directions. One of them is protectionist, linked to the protection of domestic market from foreign competition with a view to its industrial development. Such steps was taken when Alexis, underPeter I, under Catherine II, Alexander III.
“SP”: — in Soviet times?
— In Soviet times is a little distracting because there was a policy of forced protectionist. We cannot say that at this time there was the market economy fully.
“SP”: — And the second part?
— Contemporary economic policy is the second direction. This so-called liberal policy. The name is beautiful, but in fact — is the subordination of the strongest economic powers. Once, this country was England, now England and the United States, which set in Russia, the economic rules that they are beneficial.
All countries are dependent and, most importantly, they do not develop their own economy, become a raw materials appendage.
“SP”: — How can we solve this? Under Alexander IIIwe protect its market by raising import duties?
— Absolutely. And import duties were made a certain way. There existed a customs tariff, which had a complex gradation of the products. And its development is exactly what they should do economists. One of the developers of the customs tariff Mendeleev. Vyshnegradsky was attracted to it initially for the development of tariffs for the goods of chemical production, and then everything else.
“SP”: — Mendeleev was a unique person!
— Yes, he was a polymath. By the way, Mendeleev thought his main work is “Sensible tariff”. In the complete works of Mendeleev 25 volumes, of which four works on the economy.
“SP”: — Can “throw” our Prime Minister these books?
— I think it reads something more than three pages?
“SP”: — Can he throw on the iPad electronically?
— Will not work. Not all the works of Mendeleev, which are stored in the archives, even published in print. Incidentally, in the archives of the same Leningrad University, from which he graduated and our Prime Minister and our President.
Significant issue — a principled decision to transition to a protectionist system. Instead, Russia sent in the opposite direction. We joined the world trade organization. The organization supports liberal economic order throughout the world. By the way, Russia has become a WTO member one of the last. Then I made a mocking version of that with Russia’s accession circumstances change, and the world will go into a phase of protectionism. Today, the United States understands that lost to the competition in the production of some countries, China in the first place. So they create their own economic enterprises that will protect their market from cheap foreign goods. We are talking about Transatlantic and Transpacific alliances. Both they do not include China. Fundamentally.
“SP”: — And Russia, too.
— There may be other reasons related to the economic block, so we were not very rich. And with China, the situation connected with his victory in the field of production. Moreover, it can affect not only China, but also smaller players. For example, Korea, Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia, which is also something you can do. And quite often it is unclear who are the main beneficiaries in these countries. May be Chinese.
“SP”: — Where to get funds for new industrialization in Russia?
Is the main point. If we look at the information on the movement of capital across our borders, we will see that every year in our country tens of billions are derived. And it is only legal digits. And we are not sure that this figure is completely accurate. It’s basically the money from the sale of raw materials.
The only source of funds for the new industrialization is the funds that are taken abroad. They need to mobilize. The government should create for the capitalists, for those who receive income from primary production, the environment, favorable for the placing of the money in Russia. Otherwise Russian capitalism the second time in history will suffer a severe collapse and will become a historical anecdote. This is a very serious task. Will it make the current government?
“SP”: — In the new budget, social benefits are not will be indexed. To pensioners will add a one-time five thousand rubles for the New year. The situation when prices rise more than critical. In Russia 40 million pensioners. According to official statistics, 20 million people live below the poverty line. How long?
— Whatever the pension system, it is necessary to understand — if the government does not earn, and to pay pensions, of course, cannot. This is the result of twenty years of activity as a result of privatization of the commodity complex. Does our management of these cases? Yes, he does. In 2014,Andrey Belousov, Advisor to the President, talked about the exhaustion of the funds in relation to 2016. Our liberal economists then rebelled. But Belousov, in my opinion, adequately imagine how our economy works. Because he is the adviser of the President, and the President represents. Anyway — guess. But the fact that it is impossible to dramatically change what has happened over the years. Let’s hope that something is done.
