The economic development Ministry made an official prediction: in the next 20 years Russia’s economy will not grow until 2036, the country will face stagnation. What does it mean?
This means that we have no prospects. The current economic system together with public policy will not allow the country to develop in the modern world. The result will be that margin, which may lead to the disintegration of Russia.
But the Ministry of economic development the main consequences of this prolonged stagnation do not consider. The forecast does not take into account either the historical-political context, nor the context of global development. But with surprising ease, we promise to stop the development of the country for decades. Russia will “move closer to poor countries,” the authors write forecast.
Essentially, this prediction is the most eloquent assessment of Putin on a post of the head of state. In 20-30 years the world will eventually be divided into developed and undeveloped forever of the country. And because of this the foreseeable future of the current Russian leadership is not going to leave power and, therefore, all hopes for any serious political and economic reforms are futile, Russia even according to official forecast will forever remain among the underdeveloped and poor countries. Given the scale of the country, features of the device, the giant length of our borders with the most unstable and unpredictable regions of the world, the threat of collapse and Russia’s withdrawal from the world stage with such a weak national economy is very real.
How to prevent this? The Ministry of economic development this question is not concerned. Perhaps they rely on their strange forecast oil prices according to which barrel in 2030 should be worth somehow 76.7 per dollar. But it’s some stupid joke. No real grounds for such assumptions there. More careful analysis gives the grounds to predict prices from 20 to 50 dollars per barrel in the next 30 years.
“New shocks in the oil market in the next 20 years is not expected” — wrote the Ministry. Where such confidence? How about “green energy” and other new technologies? The fact that they develop everywhere except Russia, does not mean that this factor should be considered. And because you still get the “unexpected surprise”, as with shale oil… And how long has the Ministry been watching the news from the Middle East?
There are other issues of the forecast. Here, for example, the Ministry somehow believe that every year in Russia will be arriving almost on 300 thousand migrants, among them — returning home compatriots and foreign experts. I wonder who’s going to the country, warring with almost all of the developed world and is constantly on the brink of war? Meanwhile, the opposite is true: according to conservative estimates cited in the report of the Committee of civil initiatives with reference to the Rosstat, the growth of emigration over the last four years was 80% (!).
The stop in development, which they say in the Ministry, in fact, will not. Will be going back. If the authors of the forecast, even when “improved” indicators come to the conclusion that Russia will be in 20 years “closer to the poor countries”, where our country will end up with oil prices below $ 50 per barrel and reduction of the workforce?
However, the authorities prefer hallucinations instead of reality. The Kremlin’s stagnant forecast have not heard anything. “It’s probably some new jobs,”-said the press Secretary of the President and immediately adds that, according to him, the economy went on a “growth trajectory”.
Policy destroys the economy. Without a radical change of policy is not something that the situation, even a prognosis cannot be changed.
