A couple of days ago in the air not the transmission rating not the rating of the Ukrainian TV channels, answering the question is absolutely loyal to the regime and quite tame journalist, head of the presidential administration (PA) Poroshenko Ihor rainin stated that in Kharkiv there is a threat of destabilization. First the news ran through the Ukrainian media, now and got to the Russian.
Based on the stripped-down retelling of quotes Rainin, Russian experts have begun to wonder what suddenly so scared of the Ukrainian leaders, and not being prepared if the hour in Kharkiv armed uprising.
The source of instability
In fact, the statement is not alarmist Rainin plaque is a simple statement of fact.
Kharkov in the most part is not sympathetic to the Ukrainian authorities. Kharkiv oblast has a long (about 300 km) border with Russia and about the same — with the rebellious Donbass. In region has 10% of immigrants from the Donbass (not less than 100 thousand people).
From the point of view of the Ukrainian authorities is definitely destabilizing factors. Rainin said that, if you let the situation slide, and not take preventive measures, the destabilization possible.
Exactly the same thing he could say about Odessa, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhia, Kherson, Mykolaiv regions. Everywhere in the South-East of Ukraine the situation is about the same, adjusted for local conditions. The Kiev authorities have not forgotten how to March 2014 was flying the tricolor, when the Crimean spring almost turned into a nationwide Russian spring.
The Chairman of the Kharkiv regional state administration Igor rainin, and the President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko
That question Rainio was asked was about Kharkiv, looks quite logical. In the end, for the position of head of the presidential administration, he came to the post Kharkiv Governor, and his entire political career is inextricably linked with Kharkiv and the oblast.
However, be aware that all the questions of this interview (especially the “spontaneous”) previously agreed with the AP and carefully worked out. That is, focusing on Kharkov can not be a coincidence.
If this fragment of conversation is in no way affiliated with the international policy of Ukraine (and rainin responsible for internal Affairs, external Affairs Poroshenko personally engaged), if there were no significant changes in the security sphere (which they didn’t), what is articulated rainin?
Once again, it is prone to hysteria on the empty space of the Ukrainian media to see the “Russian aggression” and “conspiracy of the separatists” even in the changing weather, ignored a great excuse to build another version of the conspiracy. Silent and security forces. That is all understood, who sent a verbal signal and did not consider it necessary to intervene.
The most important hawk
Let us remember that the position of Petro Poroshenko in Ukrainian politics, which has never been a strength in recent months has further weakened. Two years President balanced between the active, influential, and armed supporters of the warmongering (not only Donbass, but also with Russia) and dreams of a world the majority of the population. However, in recent months, when the West (France, Germany and even the US) has taken a tough stance on necessity of immediate fulfillment of the Minsk agreements, Poroshenko had to be determined.
And he decided to try and become the most aggressive of the aggressive chief hawk of Ukraine. And Poroshenko himself, and his immediate staff (including the Minister of foreign Affairs Klimkin, who will not say a word, if it is not pre-approved by the PA) almost every day publicly announce that Minsk will never be executed unless all parties agree to read it as reading Ukraine.
But the forced change of position only further weakened Poroshenko. He can’t be a bigger Nazi than the leader of the regiment “Azov” and “civil case “Azov” Beletsky. And he can’t be more brutal than the Minister of internal Affairs (and not retired) Arsen Avakov, recently publicly wiesnewski the French President Francois Hollande who he is.
I happened to mention Avakov and Bielecki. They actively cooperate in attempts to bring the entire Ukrainian Nazi freemen to a common denominator. It is a part of the Ministry of interior listed the regiment “Azov” involved in not so much military operations as political activities under the guise of the eponymous “civil case”.
If based on Kolomoisky Dmitry Yarosh, also attempted to create a unified Ukrainian Nazi party under his leadership, things are not going well, Bielecki, supported Avakov already not far from a classic of the Nazi party. In her “civil case” is a political component, and the regiment “Azov” and affiliated with the Nazi national guard units would be the equivalent of Hitler’s storm troopers, but in the higher status because they are official units of the interior Ministry and are armed with not only small arms, but also armored vehicles.
You must also remember that traditionally the Ministry of internal Affairs of Ukraine has a greater number and a greater capacity than the structure of the army. It is the Ministry Avakov provides power control over the entire territory of Ukraine, and even manages to help the military on the front lines of the civil war.
Ready Nazi political structures Bielecki to a full transformation into a party, he Avakov will be sufficient power and resources to demand early parliamentary elections (which dream of all the opponents of Poroshenko), but also to provide the desired result of the electoral process (regardless of the actual outcome of the vote). Unlike Yulia Tymoshenko, a political resource in the form of the party “Fatherland”, but do not have resource power, and from Igor Kolomoisky, whose influence outside the Dnipropetrovsk region severely curtailed, Avakov in tandem with Bielecki can be a serious danger to the government and the lives of Poroshenko.
Kharkov — the last hope of the President
To counter this danger, it is necessary to have a powerful support in several key areas. Poroshenko is firmly supported only in Vinnytsia region, which as a base cannot compete with the industrial areas of the South-East or ideological regions of the Western Ukraine. Kiev oblast, theoretically a presidential sphere of influence, it is unreliable, is awash with lunatic fringe element, and can at best be neutral.
In the regions of Galicia and Volyn Poroshenko frankly do not like. The Central area is always “fluctuate with the party line” and join the winner. Half the Donbass, not controlled Kiev, but in the rest of the strong position of the local oligarchy, which would lay eggs in all the baskets. Dnepropetrovsk is controlled by Kolomoiskiy’s team, which has Poroshenko insoluble contradictions.
The Governor of Dnepropetrovsk region Igor Kolomoisky
Saakashvili in Odessa does not control anything and can not guarantee anything, and the local elite are always concerned only with preserving their income from smuggling.
In General, major regions to support Poroshenko can only Kharkov.
Sitting in a city and area team of Dobkin-Kernes has always competed with Avakov. In case of a victory of the Minister of internal Affairs in the struggle for power in Ukraine, nothing good is waiting for them. Will either have to flee the country, or to declare Kharkiv people’s Republic, with uncertain prospects for his own political and financial-economic survival (at least in DNR/LNR new military leaders gradually pushed out of the territories of the republics of the old oligarchs).
In General, Poroshenko and Avakov Kharkiv hostile elite political interests at this stage is largely the same.
That played a role in the appointment of Kharkov Rainin head of the presidential administration.
Axis “Vinnytsia-Kyiv-Kharkiv” allows you to control the Central regions, as well as Poltava, Sumy, Chernihiv and partially Zhytomyr region and, if not to dominate, to compete for influence in the Odessa, Nikolaev and Kherson areas. It turns out the long “princely domain”, cutting Ukraine in half and control the transit (and ideally ports).
Who threatens Poroshenko
It remains to recall that the interior Ministry forces have a dual reporting in complex cases are guided by the position of the leaders of the region, and that in 2014 in all areas established part of the territorial defense under the control of local authorities.
Now let’s see what completes his Kharkov speech Igor rainin. He says that the notorious preventive measures, which are expected to be in the region of stability based on the programs: “anti-terror”, civil security and territorial defense.
All three programs are administered by local authorities, “Antiterror” in cooperation with the local management of the SBU. In fact we are talking about creation in Kharkiv and region a controlled local authorities and loyal Poroshenko interdepartmental power Association, which at any moment can be used to suppress any (not only “Pro-Russian” or “separatist”) of unrest.
And the specious pretext is to prevent the destabilization of the region, which, according to the same Rainin, is the Eastern Outpost not only in Ukraine but also in Europe.
In General, trying to hold on to power, Poroshenko sends podsazhivali his Nazis a signal that the “fight for Europe”, he is ready not only with Russia but also with them.
Author: Rostislav Ishchenko
