One of the main issues of the agenda scenario conditions and main forecast parameters of socio-economic development of Russia in the years 2017-2019. Their three options – basic, conservative and targeted. Variants differ in the estimations of the main macroeconomic indicators is oil prices, growth in gross domestic product, inflation, exchange rate, investment, trade, development of industry and agriculture.
D. Medvedev recalled that the main approaches to fiscal policy were outlined in the Government’s report to the State Duma. And stressed that the budget is not planned this spring and in the autumn a new Parliament will approve the budget for the next period – the period of 2017-2019 years. “In this context I think it is absolutely timely that we have got to go back to a three-year budget cycle,” he said.
He noted that the initial conditions for the Russian economy remains challenging: sanctions, restrictions in access to foreign capital and technology, the unstable situation on the market of hydrocarbons.
“At the moment, the forecast assumes that the oil price remains in the base case at 40 dollars per barrel of oil brand “Urals”. I will add that there is another plan – in case of more pessimistic developments. Conservative variant of the forecast assumes $ 25 per barrel. Such installations are, of course, will force us to take a more critical look at the possibilities of the budget”, – explained the Prime Minister.
He noted that “front spending cuts planned”, but will be increased and the tax burden on the budget. However, the “task of balancing the budget, improving the efficiency of fiscal policy” remains key. The Prime Minister said that a number of decisions aimed at strengthening fiscal discipline are already made.
According to Dmitry Medvedev, the Russian economy is now adapting to the new reality and need to return it to growth. “Base case GDP growth this year remains at zero or slightly negative, but in the 2017-2019 years, there is a small increase of about 1-2%. In the target version, the aim is to reach growth rates below the world average. It is clear that this is a very difficult task at the moment,” the Prime Minister said.
To put the economies back on growth trajectory the government will continue its policy of import substitution, the rapid development of priority sectors – agriculture, high-tech industry. “We will work, as agreed, on the investment climate, promote non-commodity exports, to help small and medium enterprises”, – said Dmitry Medvedev.
At the government meeting was considered the draft law on social support of children of employees of Federal bodies of Executive power who died in the line of duty.
Were also distributed subsidies to the regions. For children in difficult life situations, will allocate 4 billion 600 million rubles for the purchase of vouchers and payment of travel to the place of vacation and back. In addition grants were distributed to regions where there was a difficult employment situation, the implementation of regional programmes to improve mobility. In addition, funds are allocated for the state program “Development of health” for construction and reconstruction of various health facilities in 12 regions. “Today, distributable and the transfers in the amount of 52 billion rubles allocated for the implementation of regional programmes in the road sector, a significant portion of them will be used for implementing large and critical projects”, – said the head of government.
Next, a presentation was made by the Minister of economic development Alexei Ulyukayev, in his speech he, in particular, said: “Improving the structure of economy started growing in the manufacturing industries, increasing agriculture, the financial results of Russian companies for the previous year increased by 53%”. “The situation has improved with real income, although still negative, the curve still, at the real wage is only a minus of 2.1%, significantly less than it was last year”.
According to Ulyukayev, inflation in Russia in 2016 will be 6.5% and will slow to 4% in 2019 in the baseline scenario. The head of the MAYOR explained that the slowdown of inflation will contribute to import substitution policy and the policy of containment of the tariffs of natural monopolies. As they say in materials of the MAYOR to the meeting of the government, the average annual inflation will drop to 7.5% in 2016, against 15.5 per cent due to a sharp slowdown in the 1st quarter.
In the MAYOR consider that keep inflation high interest rates that follow the inflation and reduce lending to the economy by financial institutions, as well as the relative stabilization of the foreign exchange market. Also the positive effect will continue to assist the expansion of import substitution on the food market, curbing the growth of utility tariffs at the level close to projected inflation.
