The attack on the day of the main national holiday of France will have more than serious consequences. Shock from nice can accelerate the process of realization by the French society of the dead-end course, which moves the Fifth Republic. And remove the last obstacle to the victory of marine Le Pen in the presidential election next spring.
The second large-scale terrorist attack for the last eight months have seen in France. And if you remember what happened in the beginning of last year shooting editorial “Sharlee Abdo” in nice was already the third attack on the Republic.
All of the attacks are quite different – and the manner of performance, by the performers. And the worst thing for the French that it is impossible to reduce everything to an external enemy, to the “Caliphate” or the dreaded Islamists. The killer driving a truck was a native of Tunisia, but I have already legally lived in France and was a French citizen – and he did not even need weapons to kill more than eight dozen people. It’s a war inside France, inside the French society. Can be considered radical Islamists marginalized, to say that they are not supported by the vast majority of people living in France the Muslim Arabs – but it doesn’t change the fact that the main causes that led to the tragedy in nice, lying within the French Republic.
France has lost – and in understanding myself, and understanding their place and role in the world. French society – who is this? The Frenchman – who is this? What he believes? In consumption, in Christ, in Allah, in hell, in globalization, in “beautiful France”? What color is it? What are his values? What kind of equality and brotherhood, if the second and third generation descendants who moved from North Africa to the Arabs resort to terror against their compatriots?
They despise them because they don’t believe in God, I don’t want to give birth to children that men become like women, and politicians more and more like comedians. Hate for the fact that they are considered second-class citizens, because France still behaves like a colonial power, sends troops to Africa, overthrowing unwanted rulers of African and Arab countries, resulting in civil war and hundreds of thousands of dead (and often Muslims). The Islamists could be deeply unpleasant Gaddafi – but at what here the French, who staged an operation to overthrow him?
Radical French Islamists a lot of claims to their compatriots, which of course does not justify the organizers of the attacks, but only explains the sympathy of the Muslim French community. But still the Arabs and the blacks so far are only a small, though very rapidly growing part of the population of France. So the root of the problem is not in them, but in ordinary French the French. They allowed us to bring the country to its present state – their indifference, silence or compromise gave the opportunity to politicians to do what they did to lead the country to where she came from.
France is traditionally divided into the left and right, and the left in the last decade is not among the socialists, and not so much socialists. Several movements, from Communist and anarchist to Trotskyist and environmental, some of them anti-globalists, but mostly left for globalization. The socialists first came to power in 1981, but after two terms of Mitterrand in 1995, lost the Elysee Palace to return to him in 2012.
Francois Hollande is perhaps the most unpopular President in the history of all French republics, and the trust of the citizens he lost in the first year of his reign. Even before last year’s terrorist attacks, it was clear that he shouldn’t even try to run for a second term, and now the path to the spring election for him is finally closed. Colorless politician came to the Elysee Palace by chance – beating his former civil wife of the head of the socialist party, Segolene Royal and due to a botched operation on elimination of the race who headed the IMF and was considered the most likely presidential candidate Strauss-Kahn.
By 2012, France is tired of untrustworthy Nicolas Sarkozy – managed the year before to arrange an operation to overthrow Muammar Gaddafi, which had the stupidity to give the French President a few tens of millions of dollars. Now Sarkozy wants to return to power, for this he needs to win primaries in the main opposition and the leader of the right-wing “Republicans”. For the sake of victory Atlanticist Sarkozy even posing as the opponent of sanctions against Russia and patriot of France, but there are serious doubts that such mimicry will help him a second time.
In 2007 he became President, because many French considered it a hard saying (as interior Minister) in relation to the rioters of the Arab-Negro suburbs of Paris a sign of a real right, cares about “simple French.” Besides the then these right-wing “National front” had the majority of the public image of “dangerous radicals”, almost fascists. It portrayed the press of Jean-Marie Le pen, leader of the NF. But now the situation is fundamentally different. If in 2012 the new national front leader marine Le Pen failed to make it to the second round, she lost to Nicolas Sarkozy, now her chances to advance to the second round no doubt.
Marin has long been the most popular politician in France – her presidential ratings reach as high as 30 percent. And she and her party managed to reverse the campaign of defamation, which for decades waged against the “National front” the press and the ruling party. The party is already in the “political ghetto” and vote for her more and more voters in elections at all levels, from municipal to European. With every terrorist attack euroscepticism, attitude towards tightening the rules for migrants, appeal to the national feelings and determination to bring order to attract Le Pen more and more supporters.
Party elites, socialists and Republicans, have traditionally United against the NF candidates – in order to prevent their victory. It turned out that if the NF candidate in the first round gained a relative majority of votes and went out in the second round, where he inevitably loses to the weaker and less popular policies just because “Fascism will not pass!”.
But in the last year in municipal elections, this tactic began to fail, and now the victory of Le Pen in the elections of spring 2017 not impossible. Whoever is put forward by the socialist party (and again there is talk of ségolène Royal), its candidate will not be President – too much resentment not just Hollande, but of the whole activity of the socialists. Even if Sarkozy will overcome popular among the elite of the party and even more Atlanticist Alain Juppe and will be the candidate of the Republicans, his sins are too memorable to many French.
And if it would be in the second round, with marine Le Pen, the ashes of the nice, and Paris will be knocking on the hearts of the French in favor of the new Jeanne D’arc.
Text: Peter Akopov
