VALERY SHARIFULIN/TASS
Gazprom has reported a sharp increase of gas supplies to European countries in the first quarter. This growth, experts say, is a continuation of trends that emerged last year. Moreover, this growth long term. But the East strategy of the Russian gas monopolist is still relevant.
The name of the record gave Germany
“The greatest growth of demand for Russian gas from January 1 to March 15, 2016 showed Britain: 245,9% compared with the same period last year. In absolute terms, shipments increased by 3.2 billion cubic meters, more than one third of the total growth of deliveries of “Gazprom” in the far abroad”, – said on 18 March the head of “Gazprom” Alexey Miller.
Overall delivery figures for the just ended quarter are as follows. In the first quarter “Gazprom” has put abroad 44,05 billion cubic meters of gas. This is 28% more than in the first quarter of 2015. In General, according to the monopolist, in March the company has supplied Western Europe and Turkey 14.8 billion cubic meters of gas, up 9% (1.2 bcm) higher than in March 2015. With deliveries from 6 to 31 March rose by 5%. The previous record for the index was set in March 2011 (of 14.893 billion cubic meters).
In “Gazprom” expect further growth in gas demand from European countries. So, the other day in Paris hosted the working meetings of Alexey Miller with the head of administration of the President of the country Jean-Pierre Jouyet and the Minister of economy, industry and information technology of France Emmanuel Makron. The sides discussed issues of Russian-French partnership in the gas sphere. Speech, in particular, on Russian gas supplies. As noted at the meeting, Alexei Miller, “Russia’s gas exports to France since the beginning of the year increased by almost 800 million cubic meters, more than half compared with last year”.
Record of purchases of Russian gas in 2015, has set Germany on the political level, the minimization of imports from Russia was not so long ago the most loudly. Purchases from the supplier rossiskogo was $ 43.5 billion cubic meters, which is 6 billion cubic metres more than in 2014, reminiscent of “Vesti Finance.”
In General, the export of gas increased last year by 5% to 182,9 billion cubic meters, including in the far abroad countries set’s 142.4 billion cubic meters of gas, which has provided an increase of 12.8% compared to 2014. In this case, gas production “Gazprom” in 2015 declined by 6% to 417,2 billion cubic 8% decreased supplies to the domestic market.
What’s the matter?
Need to clearly separate the energy policy of Europe and especially its Western members from political intrigues, explains the situation the analyst of “ALOR Broker” Kirill Yakovenko. Europe have said repeatedly that it wants to reduce its dependence on Russian gas, but this does not mean that its consumption should be kept to a minimum. Also talking about reducing dependence relates more to reduce the monopoly of Gazprom in the gas market, which, as you know, in Europe, obey the laws of the “Third energy package” and at the entrance of the gas to Europe is divided between local transport companies, where part, of course, is also owned by Gazprom subsidiaries.
Also, the expert believes, is to put in a good word about alternatives to Russian gas – such as American LNG, which is known not to fully support Europe in the first place insufficient number of relevant terminals for storage. Recall that relied on him mostly hostile against Russia, the Baltics, however, the high cost of construction of such terminals in its territory is somewhat cooled the ardor.
As for the reasons of increased supplies of Russian gas to Europe, according to Yakovenko, in fact, not only in March there was observed the growth. According to data for January-February the volume of gas exports increased by 37.5% compared with the same period of 2015. Regarding the volume of gas supplies to Europe for the whole of 2015 then they just grew.
That is, the positive trend did not come from nothing, – the expert emphasizes. 0 Europe in principle was not going to stop buying Russian gas. And given the fact that the price of gas in long-term contracts linked to oil prices and is a moving average over the last six months, European countries benefits from increasing procurement volume to compensate for price losses in the future, when the price of oil will probably rise. It should be noted that most of the purchases since the beginning of the year falls on France – 73%, Austria – 52%, Germany 44% and Italy 42%. In other words, the analyst concludes, Europe is once again stored for future use. While growth in March and the previous two cold for this time of year months is also due to traditional seasonal factors.
The Eastern strategy is saved
Meanwhile, the strategic plan of “Gazprom” involves, first of all, speeding up the construction corridor for gas supplies to the East, resembles the head of Department of operations on the Russian stock market IR “freedom Finance” George Vashchenko. The company understands, the expert believes, – that the extrusion of the Russian monopoly of the European market will continue, so there is no need to make huge efforts to advance plans to build a corridor to southern Europe.
In the coming years the volumes of supplies of the old routes will remain at 150-155 billion cubic meters per year, the analyst expects. Now record the volume contributes to a low price. But with increasing oil prices intensified for alternative energy and alternative gas suppliers, including, szhizhennogo, and Gazprom’s share may begin to decline. To construction of new corridors, particularly South stream, Gazprom and the EU will not be back sooner than oil again will rise in price to 100 dollars per barrel, when the competitive advantage of Gazprom’s gas will again be obvious.
Anna Koroleva
