Escalation. Colonel Cassad
Date of publication: 04 October 2016, 17:36
After yesterday’s rupture of diplomatic relations in Syria today, the parties continued to exchange accusations and threats.
1. Kerry accused Russia that it is “irresponsible” supports the Assad regime and does not allow to change it. Along the way, the state Department insists that the flights were banned by the Russian and Syrian aircraft.
2. USA projected plutonium ignored the ultimatum. Russia, in turn, ignored the exhortations and threats, and the USA and continued to support the assault on Aleppo, simultaneously accusing the US that they are ready to make a deal with “al-Qaeda” out of hatred for Assad.
3. As the American press published information that the Kremlin in Syria deploys s-300 (we are talking about the s-300VM) oriented to intercept cruise missiles, which will lead to the strengthening of the air defense umbrella over Syria.
4. On Friday announced the decision of the state Duma on the indefinite location in Syria enhanced aviation group videoconferencing (we are talking about the return to the level of the air campaign, which was until February 2016). If so, it’s on the front will go much better.
5. The UN brought the subject to overcome the Russian veto on Syria – it want to push through the international criminal court, so it does not hang in the UN security Council. Russia is unlikely to agree. Will probably refuse, and China.
6. In political and military experts of the Russian Federation and the United States intensified the issue of increasing military involvement on both sides (from the US – the supply of anti-tank systems and MANPADS from the Russian Federation – the increase in the number of aircraft, the supply of artillery and MLRS).
7. In the American conservative press and in statements by members of the Senate, increasingly emerges the theme of new sanctions against Russia, but there is no doubt that this issue will be resolved under the Obama administration. Everyone is waiting for the elections.
8. Mid-February 2017, the year announced the transfer tank brigade from Colorado to Poland. Along with it will be sent, and a battalion of military air forces of the United States. Activities for the transfer to begin in early 2017.
Amid Syrian escalation, today in Moscow arrives Nuland, to discuss the Minsk agreements. I guess the upcoming developments in the Donbass once again demonstrate the interdependence of these two wars. The impasse in relations between the US and Russia in Syria, logically complements the existing impasse in the Donbass. Tensions on Syria, in turn, makes it virtually impossible for any long-term agreement on the Donbass. Europe cannot resolve this conflict, it is primarily a question of the conflict the US and Russia.
With the current escalation in Syria, it is extremely naive would expect any serious changes in the positions of the parties on Donbass associated with concessions to the opponents. On the contrary, the worsening conflict in Syria will push both sides to pursue a more assertive position in Ukraine, although a replica of the Minsk agreements and will simulate the preservation of certain diplomatic illusions about the peaceful resolution of conflict, as for example happens with the talks on the Syrian political settlement.
There is therefore nothing surprising in the fact that in the background of “unilateral branches”, in the Donbass continues not to fix the challenge, and pulling additional forces APU to the front line. NATO about what is happening on duty spoke on the topic “no alternative to the Minsk agreements” and the need to pass the boundaries of the DNI and LC with Russia, Kiev junta. But there have long been uncontested infeasibility. And it is doubtful that the visit Nuland, something can change.
In General, the degree of conflict increases, the diplomatic methods are becoming less effective, so we see the strengthening and militarization of the rhetoric of both sides saber rattling and mutual threats. In the context of the Cold war, such aggravation could lead to a situation where the voltage will continue using power at certain theaters of military operations, in order to change the prevailing strategic stalemate potent means.
Therefore, we can assume that by the end of fall possible military escalation on all fronts of the us-Russian confrontation, and it may relate to both the existing fronts in Syria and Ukraine, and those potential areas of conflict, where the opposition has yet openly manifest.
More than other from what is happening between the US and Russia will win the Caliphate, since the aggravation of the conflict between the “crusaders” will lead to dispersion of resources on their internecine struggle among themselves, and consequently, the pressure on the Caliphate is not as strong as it could be, if the American and Russian coalition carried out a joint strategy to destroy the Islamic State.
It’s as if during the Second world war, the United States and the British Empire without waiting for the final defeat of the Third Reich, has waged a Cold war against the Soviet Union and Germany would get a real chance to use it (as dreamed by Hitler and Goebbels, but did not wait). Then reason prevailed and for all the antagonism between the United States, the British Empire and the Soviet Union, their leadership was able until the end of the war is limited to collaborate in the destruction of the main enemy.
Colonel Cassad
