Europe, apparently, will never be the same. In our eyes she’s making a very steep turn in their entire postwar history. Another, and perhaps the most striking evidence of this are the presidential elections in Austria, a stunning victory in the first round which was won by the eurosceptic right, a supporter of the Russian Crimea and self-determination of the South-East of Ukraine Norbert Hofer. What this could mean for Europe, Russia and the world in General?
What happened in Austria on 24 April 2016, has surpassed the most courageous forecasts of sociologists and political scientists.
The emergence of the new right
Since 1945 the political situation in the country was determined by the changes and interaction of the two political parties: the Austrian people’s party and the Social democratic (until 1991 Socialist) party of Austria (SDHP/SPA). The first has always stood on a moderate right-conservative positions with elements of liberalism, as, in fact, analogous to the German HDS. The second was originally a classic left-wing force, but eventually made a drift to the center and even formed a coalition with the conservative populists. At least one of these two parties for more than 70 years there were in the ruling coalition. A native of one of them necessarily was the President of the state. And here are the results of the first round of the presidential elections of 2016 are the first breakdown of this system that ultimately could fall apart on may 22.
Established in 1950-ies of the Austrian freedom party (fpö) for a long time, though, and was a “third force”, but played a secondary role, combining radical nationalist rhetoric of cooperation with the socialists. For a long time, gaining about 10% in national elections, APS can claim either the status of the parliamentary opposition, or in place of the SPA assistants.
In 1980-ies the leadership of the APS tried to change the nationalist liberal platform, which led to a severe party crisis and a sharp drop in its rating. The reaction to this unfortunate political decision and was the election for the position of head of the party for almost two decades nationalist and conservative Joerg Haider, who created the preconditions for the prosperity of the APS.
In 1990-ies on the background of the accession of Austria to the EU and increasing migrations, the popularity of the Austrian freedom party began to grow rapidly. The crowning of this process was the triumphal performance of the APS in the 1999 elections, when it managed to win almost a third of the votes of all voters and to persuade the “populists” in 2000 to the creation of the coalition. The occurrence of the extreme right in a coalition and the government of Austria then so angered European authorities that Vienna for a while was subjected to a kind of boycott.
Sunset in the power of the Union far enough in ideological terms the “populists” and the involvement of APS to some unpopular decisions of the government led to a severe party crisis and plummeting of the popularity of “supporters of freedom” by the election of 2002. In 2005, Haider left the fpö and set about creating a new right political project of the Alliance for Austria’s future. But the success of 1999 should be repeated in the alternative part of the force was not able to. Three years later Haider died in a car crash, and his latest project soon faded into political oblivion. But the Austrian freedom party, as we can see now is experiencing an unprecedented rise in popularity.
A breakthrough into the elite of Austria
After the departure of Haider the fpö was led by Heinz-Christian strache. And one of the most striking personalities in the party soon became a former aeronautical engineer Norbert Hofer, who was elected in 2013 Vice-speaker of the Parliament.
The Austrian freedom party has taken a strong stand against the further European integration of Austria, the adoption of the EU Constitution, the EU accession of Turkey, immigration, the Islamization of Europe. And this ideological consistency together with deep stagnation that gripped the Austrian economy after the establishment of a coalition government “populists” with “social Democrats”, gave a stunning effect.
Already during the presidential election campaign sociologists promised in Austria sensation. Everything pointed to the fact that candidates from the “populists” and the social Democrats will not even reach the second round. The way it turned out. But that result, which ended holowanie, no one expected.
According to sociological research, the leader of the presidential race in the first round was supposed to be an independent candidate , Alexander van der Bellen, former head of the green party. He was predicted 26% of the vote. And as for him with a more modest result was to follow from the APS put forward by Norbert Hofer. But it came out all wrong.
According to preliminary estimates, a confident leader in the first round of elections was precisely Norbert Hofer, who received about 36% of the votes of the Austrian voters. Alexander van der Bellen behind him more than 14%, and gained respect only one in five voters. Third place by a small margin from van der Bellen got the former head of the Supreme court of Irmgard Griss, which was supported by local liberals. But the representatives of the parliamentary heavyweights – ANP and Pro-European of the SDHP – was in fourth or fifth place with approximately 11% of the votes each.
Definitive predictions about the ultimate fate of the campaign now is not taken to do one. The results of the vote is still not final. About 10% of Austrian voters voted by mail, and the results of their expression will be known tentatively on Monday, may 2. But “postal” votes still only emphases are fundamentally the results of the vote are unlikely to change.
Much more unpredictable the results of the second round, which will take place on 22 may. On the one hand, supporters are not released to candidates it can theoretically support together van der Bellen – if only the President did not far-right. On the other hand, what he said over the past few months, the populists and the social Democrats to some extent resonated with some ideas of Hofer. Against the background of maintaining the migration crisis and antilockin speeches across Europe, Austrian eurosceptics, including the most moderate, can be mobilized in support of a candidate from APS!
Moreover, the success of Hofer to a certain extent already can be attributed to increase turnout – to vote for him come on those people who usually did not reach the polling stations, but which have been strongly disagree with modern politics of the EU, to encroach on their safety and the habitual way of life.
Independent policy Hofer
What are the ideas of Hofer? What makes it such a symbolic figure? He is a confirmed eurosceptic and a supporter of the traditional family, a radical opponent of the current migration policy of the European Union. Hofer supports tough measures to fight crime and, to put it mildly, does not like the Turkish President Erdogan.
Widely known was caused hysteria in Kiev interview Hofer gave in March 2016 and Die Presse in which he commented on events that occurred in 2014 in the former Soviet Union. He basically said:
The main mistake was made long ago when it was announced that the Crimea is no more Russian.
Norbert Hofer
As a candidate for the presidency of Austria, he said that a referendum on the belonging of the Crimea it was necessary to conduct immediately after the collapse of the Soviet Union. And that regardless of the availability of international observers, the inhabitants of the Peninsula would still have supported the reunification with Russia.
Moreover, one Crimea Hofer did not stop and called for a referendum on self-determination and in the East of Ukraine, that is actually recognized the right of the population of historic new Russia to decide their own fate.
Hofer also urged Europe to be pragmatic and to cancel anti-Russian sanctions, which, in his opinion, suffers from both Russia and Austria.
In the address of Hofer immediately showered with angry posts in social networks on the part of Ukrainian politicians and diplomats, it seems, does not bother. In the Ukrainian media began to call him “Pro-Russian candidate”, which is totally wrong. Hofer – not Pro-Russian, he is completely self-sufficient and Pro-Austrian policies. Just if you look at things realistically, any European patriot should be interested in lifting sanctions and developing relations with Russia, as it will benefit them, primarily by European countries and their independence from Washington.
After the announcement of preliminary results of elections in Austria “europhiles” embraced the most real panic. Columnist for the German newspaper Tagesspiegel Hermann Rudolf:
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“One-third of the votes for the leader of the far-right fpö – the disaster could not be more large-scale […].Policy in neighboring Austria was on the edge of the abyss […]. The success of APS plays into the hands of what is happening today reshuffling the political cards in Europe – especially noticeable in the East of the EU”.
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A special place of Austria in Europe
Austria really is in Europe a special situation. Vienna has long been one of the main centers of Western civilization, and even today it is a cultural, political and economic role is difficult to overestimate. While Austria have so much to be grateful to Russia. The vein is not initially perceived as an accomplice of Hitler’s crimes and as a victim. The Soviet Union voluntarily unilaterally after the war, brought from the territory of Austrian troops. Today in Austria we protect not only the graves and monuments to Soviet soldiers, but even the plaque marking the place of residence in Vienna of Josef Stalin.
After the start of a new cold war Austria was the first country of the West, where Russian President Vladimir Putin inflicted deliberate official visit with a delegation (in Normandy was the participation in the collective celebration).
Due to its geopolitical position and history, Austria has become a kind of bridge between the West and the East. And to a greater extent than many of its neighbours, has retained a well-known traditionalism, conservatism and loyalty to tradition. Though Austria and put in his time at the notorious Eurovision song contest Conchita Wurst, the home of this kind of person liking not all. Representatives of APS, by the way, after the victory of the singer-the singer at the competition, unlike euroization politicians and officials pointedly refrained from any congratulations.
The success of APS in the presidential election in Austria on the background of eurosceptic antikievskie of the referendum in the Netherlands, says that Europe is changing rapidly.
Of course, Hofer has not won the election. In addition, the office of President in parliamentary Austria does not give such authority, as, for example, in France. But the fact that the representative of the APS one picked up votes in the first round is almost two times more than both of the representative of the ruling coalition together, says that the Executive power in Austria has lost the support of the population. And in good standing, members of Parliament and Ministers after such failure have the obligation to resign and go to early elections. It is possible that in the beginning of the summer we would expect something like that.
The consequences for the West and Russia
The success of APS and Hofer personally unable to open in the near future provide some important opportunities in the future.
First, there is a high probability that Austria will block sanctions against Russia. For the EU this will indicate that the automatic extension of restrictive measures of the European Union will not be possible.
Secondly, in the Western community at the most serious level will be raised the question of official recognition of Russian Crimea.
Third, the West will be a major force in calling for self-determination of new Russia. And this will facilitate either real federalization of Ukraine, or to its division.
Austrian success can have a strong impact on encouraging the eurosceptics across the EU. Right-wing and left-wing opponents of a United Europe under the dictates of Brussels and Washington, will be able to drastically increase their positions.
In particular, in Germany, Spain, France, Italy, the Netherlands: policies of these countries will already thoracoplasty success Hofer. That, in turn, will call into question is actually directed against Europeans by American searchlights of the type of the Transatlantic partnership and evroassotsiatsii Ukraine. Will get along with Erdogan, who traditionally dislike the skeptics.
The European Union in its current form exhausts the possibilities, making it interesting for their members. And now the Hofer has a chance to become the hero who will break “the needle Kasaeva Brussels mutant and has started the process of his rebirth into something harmonious and viable. In any case, the inhabitants of Austria have the chance to assist him in this. And they will use them or not, we will know after may 22.
