Now the policy of the Russians is a sense of disgust, a feeling close to nausea, and the passivity of the population in the last election is confirmed, according to the Russian analyst Dmitry Oreshkin.
In an interview with DELFI has told about results of elections in Gordumu, the indifference of Russians to the election that low turnout is not power, was sent a false signal that the population approves of the current course. However, he said that the chances of the opposition in the elections was insignificant.
Changes in the system of government D. … compares with the actions of Joseph Stalin in relation to the cohort of old Bolsheviks, whom he removed from the leadership and shot.
The political scientist believes that for the politicians of the Baltic States it would be strange not to take advantage of Russia’s behavior in their own interests. Aggression against these countries, the Kremlin is unlikely, says the interlocutor noted.
Hybrid elections
The company was very peculiar. On the one hand, it was cleaner on the other side — dirtier. On the one hand, the support of “United Russia” has grown, on the other hand, fell. It’s a hybrid election. All hybrid — and the war, politics, elections, society and the Duma. The “United Russia”, if we take in the whole country, turned 4 million votes less, and the interest became more. How can this be? The reason lies in the fact that Russia within themselves heterogeneous. In electoral sense, this heterogeneity is very evident. There is a small, approximately 20 subjects of the Russian Federation from 80, the cluster regions, voters and elites, who in every election campaign behave the same way. The symbolic name for this cluster “Chechen”. It Chechnya, Dagestan, Ingushetia, Kabardino-Balkaria, Karachay-Cherkessia, North Ossetia, Tuva, Kemerovo region, Altai, Tatarstan, Bashkortostan, etc. There is a turnout on average more than 70% and the result is greater than 70%. And it has nothing to do with the real mood of voters, and associated with the mood of the elites that these letters I write. Those who remember the Soviet Union remember how the results were done. Of course, this isn’t a vote, just write the protocols and represent them. And no protests can not be, because there are no scandals, no competition.
But Russia is not uniform and there are still 60 regions, which are competitors in different ways. And in this area people are most likely talking about counterfeits, manipulation of the media, etc. In this election, this split was always evident, and this is a vicious cluster in sum, given the 10-12 million people for the ruling party or the President.
Now most Russia — an open cluster in the elections did not go. This reduced support for United Russia. In this cluster actually decreased the number of counterfeits. Ella Panfilova really the situation in this sense has improved. Free cluster has roughly produced a very small number of votes because there was a low turnout. It turned out that, of the 28.4 million who voted for the “United Russia” closed cluster provided approximately 12 million the Rest of the country gave 16 million votes in support of the course. It turns out the ambivalent picture.
When Putin says that in this way (by voting for the ruling party – DELFI) Russia has responded to pressure from the outside, it is at best misleading, at worst a lie, because the external pressure consolidation reacted only in a closed cluster, and then without enthusiasm. Most of Russia is outside pressure reacted with apathy and reluctance to come to the polls. And among those who came to the polls reacted a fraction of a reduction. Neither of which consolidation companies there is no question, conversely, is the disintegration of society. People creeping brains, they do not know how it is: in physical terms, the ruling party won less, and interest — more. In fact, everything is simple — the passivity of the citizens led to this result.
Why was there no protest?
In 2011, the protests were only in Moscow, bit in St. Petersburg. Moscow — smart-enough region in order to provide coordinated supervision at sites. And those who watched gathered protocols and then counted on a calculator. It turned out that there where were the observers from “United Russia” — 30%, where they were not — 47%. And Moscow stood on its hind legs, fell out on the street and was a Marshy area. And to the credit of the government, it reacted to it, and the next elections are held there fair enough. Now in Moscow believed honestly that in the streets. Muscovites themselves, judging by the turnout, considered these elections are not very meaningful, and secondly, to gurgle, if the government really honestly counted. Counterfeit crawled to the province. Everyone knows the story in Saratov with its 62 percent. The same thing happened in the Tyumen region, Samara region, etc.
(The fact that people are not interested in elections) mainly your (party government) credit. You graze TV, inspire the population to rise from my knees, give back. If people tells you after this that you we are not interested, it’s your problem. My people are rational, he knows that if he is being taken for a fool, he’s going to vote is not necessary. So the comrades of the “EP” the return (indifferent to the election – DELFI) is understandable.
There is no consolidation and unity
It was so before. Nobody planned 54%, said it would be 45%, so it would have been in regular attendance. Local chiefs understand that their future depends on relations with the center, so try to show their loyalty go too far. And if in Saratov it shows. The conclusion is simple: you (“ER” – DELFI) see that 4 million people less than you supported, where this consolidation, the willingness to unite? This is pure apathy: guys, we in these games do not want to play. But, incidentally, in vain. The elections have to go, like it or not. You’re sending the authorities a signal. Now the power received a completely distorted signal that people support and approve the course. But actually the Duma people are absolutely indifferent. I think in the current situation decorative, like the Supreme Council of the USSR. All that comes down from the Kremlin, they support and approve of because it affects their political future, etc. How many of them, it doesn’t matter, but it is interesting that there was a single-seat districts, they will lobby for their interests, but only on the second floor, on the ground they will support and thank the decision of the Kremlin administration. No shadow of opposition there can not be.
The chances of the opposition
Zero. Only as shown by the “Party of pensioners” if she hadn’t had the internal irritation, they would have a chance to pass. Now the policy is the voter disgust and a feeling close to nausea, and retirees care about the old people. So they had a chance. “Apple” — well it had such mediocre campaign spend. The “Parnassus” the same, it would be cool if he got the desired interest and received Federal funding, but it was impossible. “Parnassus” was doomed”.
Hard to say what the balance of interests among those who did not come. But judging by the fact that residents of large cities do not come to the polls as the most westernized regions, from Kaliningrad to Karelia, this dealt a heavy blow to the “Apple” and “Parnassus”. The “Apple” had a chance, if it came to vote in the 10-15 million more.
Putin begins to fear their environment
I think they mean the same thing that happened in the thirties in the Soviet Union. Vladimir Putin began to fear his surroundings, as Stalin feared the old Bolsheviks, who saw the failures of his policies. The same Putin failure Ukraine, the unclear situation with Transnistria, the failure in Donetsk — it is not clear what kind of territory, millions of refugees, ditched a huge number of people, the country is isolated, the economy falls. And those people (old friends and the security forces) who know Putin as Vladimir and tell him, and if you’re an effective Manager, which you see on TV (and I can’t say this), Putin addresses, well, that is not shooting.
And it starts with boundary situations. Changed the head of customs, foreign intelligence Service, migration service, counternarcotics services. Putin is interested in maintaining its power begins builds the iron curtain. All that can he lost, now he has zakuklitsya and tell their constituents that he raised him up from his knees. Amid declining living standards should be strengthened propaganda. So those people who might not believe her, need to remove, and to put the young, colorless, that will look you in the mouth and admire. The same thing happened in the thirties, when the old was removed, and brought young — Khrushchev, Malenkov, Beria, who did what Stalin ordered them and did not understand, as Khrushchev later wrote in his memoirs.
“As I understand it, Putin receives a signal from the electoral system that everything is under control. So there is a feeling that we must move in the same direction to the East. Russia vystraivaet barrier on the Western flanks and wider smiles in the direction of the East, gradually becoming not in Uzbekistan, but in Kazakhstan the level of authoritarianism.”
On foreign policy, sanctions, and the Baltic States
In the West — bummer, that means we need to pretend that you priorieties to the East. And in the East would be a bummer after a year. China has increasingly immersed in the economic crisis. The expectation of Chinese money are illusory.
As for the Baltic States, looking from the side, the local politicians would be fools if they did not use such an exotic behavior of Russia in their interests. They use. On the one hand, they really frightened, as if polite people with guns entered the Donbass, the Crimea, and was killed in the war, some 10,000 people according to the UN, and here that’s to be expected. Probably for some political players is the best political thing and in General that there is something rational. We must be prepared to risk, but overestimation of danger — the same mistake as underestimating. In my view, Putin has the guts to invade any country in the Western direction, because it still won’t deal with Ukrainian sanctions.
Already asking: remove the sanctions, it is hard, although they say that the West is interested in it. But in the West there are special people who paid for it. There are journalists who are powered by specialone, but there are people who lobby the interests of their business. For example, the same Henry Kissinger. Germany had 6000 joint ventures in Russia. And they did not really need these sanctions. On the other hand, if no sanctions, then why not to move in the direction of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia? So here goes the search of balance of interests. But the fact that the violation of international law should result in some action. Very long suffered, but when he cut a piece from one country and join another, that was too much. Based on this, if there is still some movement on the Western flank, it is hoped that all this complex system of discrediting sanctions mechanism works, hard. Any harsh gesture towards the Baltic countries, Finland, Sweden, whatever, will immediately lead to a sharp tightening of the actions of the West. And Putin knows it and afford it, in addition to the tough rhetoric, can not. But you need to understand that horror is an element of the policy.
The Donbass, as a monstrous problem
Donbass is a terrible problem. There was almost 6 million. 2 million refugees. Most of them in Ukraine. Russia is still the Republic does not recognize and will not recognize, because there is no money. To feed the three million people can not afford. The idea was this: we create enclave like a hot potato, we have key positions, this hot potato, we stick behind the goal Poroshenko, she let it bake. There can be some subversive action, there are three million voters in Kyiv after the war will not vote ever. And to pay for all this fun will be Poroshenko. It, saying violent Patriotic rhetoric that this is our territory, not in a hurry to take her back. He doesn’t need voters who will vote against him, he doesn’t have enough money to feed the Russian regions who have demonstrated loyalty, Odessa, Dnepropetrovsk, Kharkov, etc. and then there’s this territory have, so he struggled shakes his head, trying to throw the bridle of the Minsk agreements. It will pull time. The result will be the same as always happens with such territories like Transnistria, no status, no economy, no prospects, just rhetoric. Manage the territory by bandits. To attach (to Russia – DELFI) — to run into sanctions.
I have no idea what to do to Putin, by 2018 he needs to perform the feat. Without the feat, its popularity falls. In these elections the main Russian village and wondered what was going on. Congitive dissonance: we like stood up, stopped paying tribute to the United States, bitch, coolest, and why there’s no money left? Of enthusiasm in the behavior less and is a bad sign. Russia is a smart country and smart people, he deserves to have his vote honestly counted.
