The crisis in the Russian economy caused by three main reasons, Austrian Die Presse writes. – Low oil prices and Western sanctions, however, the most serious problem of Russia can be solved only by herself. In the absence of structural reforms economic growth in the country will be insignificant, even at the price of oil at a hundred dollars.
Optimistic situation in the Russian economy yet does not cause, but at least the forecasts about the economic development of the country is not so pessimistic as before, writes the Austrian newspaper Die Presse, whose publication introduces Inotv. According to IMF estimates, soon Russia will be able to overcome the recession, which in 2015 was minus 3.7 per cent and in a less pronounced form continued in the first months of the current year, and return to the path of economic growth.
In 2016, economic difficulties, apparently, will continue, but next year can produce significant changes, says the author. He identifies three reasons that lasted for years after the rise Russia is experiencing economic crisis.
One of them is the ongoing for almost two years, the drop in oil prices from 115 to 28 dollars per barrel, which pulls down and the ruble, says the publication. The second reason is the Western sanctions, to which Russia responded with a ban on the import of agricultural products. As reported in the article, the sanctions are hurting the Russian economy mainly due to limited access to the capital markets.
However, regardless of these two reasons, there is a third, emphasizes Die Presse. We are talking about a structural crisis: the performance of the Russian economy and increase wage for years could not keep pace, and the country was not created by no prerequisites to support the investment growth model, writes the Austrian newspaper.
The price of oil is now entrenched in the “satisfactory” mark of 48 dollars and promises of new serious falls. On the issue of extending sanctions of the EU will confer at the end of June, and this time it is not excluded breaks for individual industries, says the author.
Nevertheless, it remains the most difficult item, namely, reforms that depend only on the Russia, underlines the edition. “No matter what oil prices are, again at least $ 100 per barrel, we will not be able to grow more than 1.5-2 percent, if we do not do structural reforms,” — said recently the head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina.
This opinion is shared by the European Bank for reconstruction and development, according to which even the rate of change of the Russian economy after 2017 economic growth in the country will be limited by the rate of a few per cent, if not carried out radical structural reforms.
As reported in the article, may 25 will be a meeting of the Presidium of the Economic Council under the President. The main task at the moment: to find sources of growth to GDP in the medium term again accounted for about four percent annually. This is exactly what you need Russia, Die Presse concludes.
