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Cato Institute, USA</address>
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07.05.2016
Doug Bando (Douglas “Doug” Bandow)
Two years ago, Russia annexed the Crimea from Ukraine. After that the Western allies imposed economic sanctions, but their impact was insignificant. No one believes that Crimea, a former six decades ago, a Russian city, intends to return to the Ukraine.
Nevertheless, the European Union encouraged other countries to join the boycott ineffective. However, the majority of States abstained from participation in this conflict. They are not going to declare economic war on the distant nation, which is nothing wrong they did.
Although Washington, which has fewer commercial interests, continues to be among the most ardent supporters of sanctions, Europe is divided on this issue. Opposition arose against routine renewal in July of restrictions on Russian banking, energy and defense industries. Especially skeptical in relation to the ongoing economic war is configured with Cyprus, Greece, Hungary and Italy.
Supporters of sanctions, insisting that Russia fully complied with the provisions of the Minsk agreement and cease its support for separatists in Eastern Ukraine. “Today Russia faces a choice: continue damaging economic sanctions or the full implementation of the Minsk agreements”, — said Secretary of state John Kerry.
However, the intensity of armed conflict has declined, in Kiev in the midst of a political crisis, and some Ukrainians do not believe that they want the return of the separatists. And, indeed, Oksana Syroid, Vice-speaker of the Ukrainian Rada, blocked passage of a constitutional amendment, granting autonomy to the Donbas. “We need to stop thinking about how to confront Putin or how to please all of our partners,” she said.
Brussels may face an unpleasant situation — Russia fulfills its obligations, while Ukraine violates the terms of the transaction. “Both sides should implement the agreements,” — complained the Minister of foreign Affairs of Germany Frank-Walter Steinmeier.
Targeted sanctions against individuals and corporations, have a certain appeal. However, there is little evidence that they are more effective than more ambitious measures.
The latter was painful for the Russians, but they did not turn them against the government. Moreover, Western penalties have slowed or even reversed liberalization of the Russian economy, as the business became more dependent on government support.
The belief that the extension of the sanctions for a short period will force Moscow to capitulate, testifies to the triumph of hope over experience. Instead of reflexive to continue sanctions, Western States should reconsider its policy towards Russia.
Vladimir Putin is not a nice guy, but in this sense it differs little from other authoritarian rulers. Geopolitically Ukraine means much more to Moscow than to Europe or to America. Russia will always spend more money and more risk in order to protect its perceived interests in the field of security on its borders. And the West did much to challenge Moscow, including the promotion of street uprising against a democratically elected President. That does not excuse rude actions on the part of Russia aimed at the dismemberment of his neighbor, however, Putin acted in a predictable and rational. He is not revived Hitler and Stalin revived — it is traditional king. Putin never showed willingness to absorb non-Russian peoples.
So, as I noted in the magazine Forbes, “the allies must discuss the exit from the sanctions framework in which they are stuck. They can abandon the economic war, to promise to stop the expansion of NATO and its approach to the Russian borders (the most important thing — not to include Ukraine), to reduce military support to Kiev and to contribute to Ukraine in economic terms, looked in both directions.
Moscow could stop supporting Ukrainian separatists, she could cooperate to restructure heavy debts of Kiev, to accept the economic relations of Ukraine with the European Union, to carry out the international monitoring of the referendum on the status of Crimea and to accept any result, formed from a chaotic Ukrainian political system.”
Kiev, of course, free and independent in deciding their own future. However, the Ukrainians must choose their own path, fully aware that no one in the West is not ready to start full-scale economic war, not to mention military conflict, with the nuclear weapon Russia over the status of Kyiv.
The United States and Europe, defining its policy towards Russia should not forget that the best is the enemy of the good. Economic sanctions mainly act as a moral statement, but there are other means.
At the same time, there are many important questions, the solution of which the West can benefit from assistance from Russia. Two years have passed and it is time to make a deal with Moscow.
