Arseny Of Kalatozov
Chancellor Merkel on Monday came back from the Italian Tyrol to Berlin. Vacation managed in the sense that the Chancellor was not to interrupt him a second time because of the increasing “heat” around the Crimea. By significant coincidence, the heat has subsided immediately after the announcement of the resignation of the head of the Russian presidential administration Sergei Ivanov.
But Angela Merkel, the Crimea to the rest of the summer and until autumn, expect some very difficult times. De facto, Berlin became the capital of the Western world.
Nothing like this has ever happened in the history of the new Germany. The reason is not that the President of the United States in the last hundred days before the election does not take global decisions — this happens with calculable regularity. The problem is the care-neurode Britain, which not only broke away from Europe for the first time since the Second world war, but as it hovered over the channel. The fact that at the end of last week from London came the strange news: Britain for at least a year postpones the filing of “statements of divorce” with the EU, in the winter of 2017. This means that allocated for divorce the Lisbon Treaty two years will be completed only by 2020. This classic English deliberation shows that the government of Brexia obviously decided to wait until the “dead donkey” of British discontent of the plebs. But, of course, in this limbo of London is not able to be a full-fledged political partner of the West on strategic issues.
Brakcet at the same time leveled the modest influence of Brussels. Paris is also out in full-fledged partners, as President Hollande’s move to the status of “lame duck” — outgoing nature. But without this, the chances of his party in the upcoming elections is very vague, and therefore, no long-term solutions to Paris to give now cannot.
At the same time, Merkel herself back in the eyes of the electorate the most part lost over the past year points, the Christian Democrats are still the leaders of influence in the country, the FDP once again gaining weight and has a chance to return to the Bundestag, becoming, as before, younger, but an important ally of the CDU/CSU. And the nerve center of the party has long been looking for ways to replace the weakening of the social Democrats (their electorate increasingly suffer from populism AfD) in the role of allies in the coalition for “green”.
Problem is only one: Berlin, despite persistent rumors, never tried to solo leadership of the West. It is even theoretically not have any skills or institutions.
But also no output: Europe can’t stay “home alone” until Christmas…
