The recession in the Russian economy is over, the country will face slow economic growth. On Monday, August 8, according to a published by the Bank of Russia Bulletin.
In July, the Central Bank has improved the assessment of GDP growth for the third quarter to 0.4 percent compared to the same period last year. The forecast for the fourth quarter of 0.5 percent. However, there are risks for a more confident recovery dynamics of industrial production in the coming months, according to the materials of the regulator.
According to experts of the Central Bank, inflation remains within the framework of the base scenario, but its dynamics have deteriorated. The Central Bank drew attention to the risks of exceeding the inflation level of four percent in 2017. “Inflation expectations stabilized at a higher level that can prevent the slowdown of inflation”, — reported in the Bulletin.
In this case, said in the Bank of Russia, the ruble’s sensitivity to the dynamics of oil prices in July 2016 dropped to a minimum. In March, when the price of oil rising, and global risks have decreased, the sensitivity of the exchange rate of the national currency to the price of oil peaked for the year. This contributed to the strengthening of the ruble, said the Central Bank.
On 5 August the analysts of VTB 24 Bank predicted that the dollar has reached the point of reversal and will soon begin its decline until at least 55 rubles. The reason for the strengthening of the ruble should be an increase in oil prices, which will start in the foreseeable future.
August 4, Minister of economic development Alexei Ulyukayev said that deflation can be observed in some weeks of August, it can also be recorded at the end of the month.
On the same day the European Central Bank announced that the Russian economy has reached the bottom and pushed away from him.
