So, yesterday we signed an agreement with Turkey on gas pipeline. “Turkish stream” will go under the Black sea and will be ready by December 2019. On gas prices with Turkey, we have also successfully agreed — now only the technical part: to build and run:
( Hide )https://lenta.ru/news/2016/10/10/potok/
Work on the “Nord stream-2” is also in full swing. Pro-American-minded Poland is still trying to put a spoke in the wheel of the project, however, construction work has already begun, and, in General, there is little doubt that in 2019 this pipeline will also work.
By the way, the next negotiations on the “Nord stream-2” will be held in Austria today. The news of the signing agreement “Turkish stream”, probably, will force our European partners to stir up. I hope that Germany, Austria and other needy in our gas, Europe will be able to slam the poles with a ruler on the hand:
https://ria.ru/economy/20161010/1478864197.html
As you can see, the traditional path of gas flow from Russia to Europe, Ukrainian gas transport system is rapidly losing its value. The current contract on gas transit through Ukraine ends in 2019. The new contract “Gazprom” will sign already on absolutely other conditions.
In fact, so far our gas companies claim that the new contract for gas transit with frivolous Ukraine will not sign at all, however, I think they are evil. The contract with Ukraine — or at least an effigy of the contract — will be useful for us to ensure that our Northern and southern partners, especially not insolent, considering themselves a monopoly. Another issue is that to put gas through Ukraine physically, we probably still won’t — but the Treaty in a spare box lying we still have.
We now return to the question I made in the title of the post. Can Russia be friends with Ukraine and the Baltic States?
Answer: of course, it can. However, this requires that all Stopray and all the controls were in the hands of Russia.
Let’s look at our recent history. After the collapse of the USSR our Ukrainian neighbours are faced with a number of strategically important tools. First, the city of Russian sailors Sevastopol, which was our black sea fleet, and second — transmission system, through which we inject to Europe, our gas, and thirdly the industry, generating need for Russian plants components.
Of course, Russia had instruments of influence on Ukraine, and because of our size more powerful. We could, if we had the desire, to block gas to Ukraine and, say, cut it off from our enormous market. In General, Ukraine and Russia were interdependent — as being in one body conjoined twins.
If we lived on a planet of elves, this situation would have resulted in a very strong Alliance between our countries — in fact to any unbiased observer it was clear that the political map of the world was told Russia and Ukraine to unconditionally cooperate with each other.
In real life however, as you know, no Union failed. Why? Because Ukraine was too weak to protect their interests and to think for at least 10 years. Immediately after the collapse of Soviet power in Ukraine came the oligarchs, of which the long-term interests of Ukraine have cared in the least. In order to stay in power and get the opportunity to fill their pockets, the oligarchs was beneficial to work in line with the American project “Ukraine is not Russia” — to quarrel with Russia, hurting both countries and removing the benefits for his own purse.
The first years of “independence” Russia could not do anything — the power in Russia belonged to exactly the same Pro-American oligarchs, who, in their own memoirs, it was assumed that at the beginning of zero years, Russia will disintegrate into warring fiefdoms. However, following famous Yeltsin’s “squiggles” and the election of President Vladimir Putin, Russia had the opportunity to think about long-term strategy.
Strategy, as you probably have guessed, was very simple. It was intended to take away from Ukraine all the levers of influence on Russia, and think “for two” — both for us and for our near neighbors. Actually, if you have leadership experience anything at all, you know that this is usually the only working option. When the boss begins to play in democracy and share power with subordinates, it often leads to the fact that those shoot through his leg.
As Russia considered the question of interception of the Americans in Ukraine are tools for blackmail?
For a long time and a lot of stress built pipelines to bypass Ukraine. In 2011 earned the “Nord stream”, by 2019, if all goes according to plan, will earn “North stream-2” and “Turkish stream”, and then threaten us by blocking the gas valve will be impossible.
The coup in Ukraine gave Crimea the right to declare formal independence and the Crimea took advantage of this right to return to home port, to Russia. To argue the Ukraine is very difficult, because, in fact, in the act of proclamation of independence of Ukraine claimed that she declares independence “in connection with the state coup in the USSR.”
Now the black sea fleet are securely placed in their native land, all the talk about the termination of the lease ended.
Finally, the rapid degradation of Ukrainian industry has forced our factories accelerated pace of import of Ukrainian parts. At the moment, the dependence of Russian industry from the Ukraine produced components is minimal.
Moreover, Russia has consistently cleans the areas where Ukraine has not yet caused us problems, but the potential to do it. Crimea has already become volatile, a road-rail bridge to Crimea and vengeance are constructed. The railway line from Moscow to Adler, a piece of which passed through the territory of the Luhansk region also moves into our territory. After two or three years, all these works are completed.
What will we achieve by 2020?
To the situation when Russia does not depend on Ukraine, and Ukraine, on the contrary, will very much depend on Russia. Let me remind you, Russia without Ukraine can not develop normally, even agriculture — tractor working on diesel, and diesel fuel purchased for currency. You can, of course, to export to the EU sunflower oil and used the money to buy diesel fuel… but the little money that the Ukrainians will be able to capitalize on this type of transactions, is unlikely to allow the country to live at least at the level of North Korea.
For normal operation the Ukrainian economy needs, that was built on the rights of a full partner in one of the two major economic contours in the EU or the Customs Union. In the EU, as you know, Ukraine is nobody on the rights of a full partner, will not take so as to not take the rights of a full partner even Greece and Poland. Therefore, after 2019 Ukraine will remain only one option: to agree on a fair cooperation with Russia.
Almost the same can be said about the Baltic States, with the only difference that the role of the “Nord stream” in this area is played by the port in Ust-Luga. Baltic sat on the money to be derived from the transshipment of Russian cargoes in their ports. Now, when the Russian cargo go from Baltic to our Ust-Luga, a small republics no choice but to sober up, to reduce the intensity of Russophobia and start to negotiate with Russia.
To summarize
To date, Russia has got rid of the most part hooks which were inherited from the Soviet Union, and with which we were blackmailed former Soviet republics.
Now Russia had the opportunity to build relationships with neighbors from a position of strength. This allows us to hope that our relations with the republics of the former Soviet Union are now much more healthy, fair and mutually beneficial.
PS. One promise the President of Turkey has already fulfilled. It is a plus Let’s see will it help us now in Syria:
http://ruslanostashko.livejournal.com/64548.html
