That will give Russia’s long-term budget planning
Boxes of documents of the draft law “On the Federal budget” in the House of government of the Russian Federation before being sent to the state Duma. Photo: Dmitry Astakhov/press service of the government of the Russian Federation/TASS
The country is returning to a three-year budget cycle. The fundamental decision has already been made, which means that the days of annual planning, which we passed due to the fall in oil prices and the growth of foreign policy risks, came to an end. Now, what is more significant, the 2017-2019 budget should be the Foundation for long-term fiscal projections up to 2030. By itself, the focus on such broad strategic planning of the economy promises significant changes.
The end of force majeure
Even at the end of February the first Vice-Premier Igor Shuvalov gave the ministries and agencies instructed to work on a new budgetary cycle within a predetermined schedule by the government. Already in March–April it is expected to receive initial offers (it is possible that some of them have already been discussed at a recent night economic the meeting with the President). Until March 29, the Ministry of economy will present a General scenario for three years, and on April 22 the proposals on tariff and monetary policy promulgated by the Central Bank. In may–June all this will be utryasutsya, to be negotiated and reduced. In June, the documents will be submitted to the government. By 21 September the government expects to receive from the Ministry of Finance the entire package of budget documents, ready to submit to the State Duma, and the final prediction until 2030.
Over the study of its proposals are already active in the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of energy and the Ministry of labor. From other ministries no information about this has not yet been reported, but in General the government made it clear that all the solutions of tomorrow need to develop today, and that they must be part of a broader development programme.
The eternal question
“Dance around the budget” in 2016 will be difficult, tense and very busy. The ministries of Finance and economy in the near future on the agenda not only the budget process for the next three years, but also numerous discussions on the eternal theme: where to take money? As we know, the Prime Minister signed the “anti-crisis plan” can only half to be financed from the budget. The second half should give a nod by the President. It is a remedy derived from the freeze of the cumulative part of the pension (342 bln rubles), but to keep them in business, it is necessary to overcome considerable resistance as the bureaucratic and psychological. These billions of simultaneously applying both the military and socialice, although the decision to freeze pensions for 2017 was only discussed but not yet adopted. About it Olga Golodets announced not so long ago, how about his little victory.
At a meeting with Putin the question of the sources of additional funding for anti-crisis measures had been considered, and, apparently, some solutions were identified. However, they are hidden behind the vague wording, and the situation is somewhat stale. What we can say for sure is that the money is somehow there, but in whose pockets is the question. By all indications the three-year budget promises us many changes — from the revision of tax rates to changes in the retirement age, and it is unlikely that all of them can be called pleasant.
At the same time, a big plus three year budget plan — this is its main task: to prepare and ensure the implementation of the strategic development plan until 2030. It must outweigh, in the long term all the negativity. Because strategic planning involves a balanced development of all sectors of economic and social life, the absence of conflict between interests, and that we are not spoiled for a long time.
the <pre>Anton Siluanov and Alexei Ulyukayev (left to right). Photo: Mikhail Japaridze/TASS</pre>
Again, the American savings and bonds
The adoption of the three-year budget, according to estimates of our Ministers, must match with the overall economic recovery. As announced on 16 March in the state Duma Alexei Ulyukayev, the growth may start from the second half of 2016 (0.7% of GDP) and in 2017, the positive dynamics will be noncancelable and tangible (from 1.5 to 2.5% growth). His mouth, of course, and honey to drink. But one thing the Minister can agree. The so-called sanctions, our economy has adapted, and in some moments they even act on it positively. Now these sanctions, according to the head of the Ministry of economy to last at least ten years, any negative effect on us, they will not have.
Several lubricates this rosy picture, the situation with the Russian national debt, which, according to the firm belief of the Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, it is impossible to extinguish at the expense of means of the Reserve Fund. The Minister strongly objected to this idea and intimidated that if the Fund will be spent in the same pace as in 2015, in time for 2017-mu money in it will end. (Which was about these funds and what a rainy day they have been accumulating and piling up, Siluanov, however, did not specify.)
On the other hand, almost unnoticed, there was information that in February Russia again has bought us bonds worth 4.8 billion dollars, bringing its investment in the U.S. economy almost $ 100 billion. It is clear that, by purchasing bonds and gold, the Central Bank is insured against all risks. But it is within “their”, built on the cult of the dollar and foreign to us and our interests, and logic. But human logic dictates that there is not such cloudless relations with the U.S. to keep their money in American securities. What about minimizing risk generally can be discussed, especially against the background of what Americans extremely strongly recommend all honest the world of Russian bonds to buy and in the Russian economy not to invest? Tell them how it to understand? Mystery.
Besides, surely the budget would be almost 5 billion of American money, or 336 billion rubles domestic at the rate of 70 rubles./ $ while our government tries unsuccessfully to split between defence, industry and social sphere 352 billion of pension savings? So, to put it mildly, ridiculous.
By itself, the transition to long-term budget planning is welcome. Yes, while this is only a theory and promises, until these plans in real life to judge it is impossible, but at least it is hoped that the long-term strategy is to reshape according to momentary changes in the external economic environment, and Vice versa, will help Russia in this situation does not depend on. The main principle of this strategy should be as follows: whenever we’re planning, at the forefront should be not budget as such, but it is the development of the national economy as a whole. Money is intended to serve the needs of the country, not the country — the accumulation of money, especially at times, this accumulation takes place in a very strange and doubtful forms.
The budget, in essence, is purely a utility value. It is intended to serve the development of the economy and with it the increase of our prosperity and strengthen our security. Otherwise no point in all of these plans and programmes no.