What to do Moscow if Baku will become operational-tactical missiles with a range of 500 km and more
The Azerbaijani defense Ministry is working on the acquisition of operational-tactical missile systems with a range of up to 500 km. this was recently stated by the Azerbaijani commander of the rocket forces and artillery of major-General Zahid Huseynov.
According to him, “for reliable defense capability of Azerbaijan needs to acquire tactical missiles with a range 200, 300 and 500 kilometers.” Huseynov said that “available today on arms of Azerbaijan the fire system allow you to strike at any military object of the enemy.”
— We can apply pinpoint strikes on any enemy object. If the Supreme commander orders, we can strike at Yerevan, he added.
Note that according to official data on the armament of the land forces of Azerbaijan are tactical missile systems “Point”, which ensure the defeat to a range of 70 kilometers, and with a relatively low accuracy, since the rocket is unguided and inertial guidance system. Also there is evidence that Azerbaijan has purchased Israeli precision-guided tactical missiles IMI EXTRA, which runs from modular MLRS Lynx Azerbaijani army. But their maximum range is 150 km, and Thus the words of the Azerbaijani General that his armed forces can strike at any object of Armenia, including the capital — is likely bravado. But how to change the balance of power, if Baku will acquire a PTRC with longer range shooting? And then what to do Armenia and its CSTO ally of Russia?
— Around missile Arsenal of Azerbaijan is a lot of uncertainty, — said the Director of the Centre for strategic conjuncture Ivan Konovalov.
— Officially, the weapons it has 12 PU SV TR “Point”, however, there were reports on procurement in Israel of not only air defense but also EXTRA missiles (130-150 km), as well as ballistic missile “Hatf-4” medium-range production of Pakistan…
Another thing is that PTRC are used in conducting army operations to solve problems in depth, that is, to attack in rear objects, including the civilian population. And this immediately brings the conflict of the border clashes into another stage, which is very dangerous for Azerbaijan itself. Because in the course of the April events he was not seized of any one locality and has not achieved any benefits.
Member of the Expert Council of the Military-industrial Commission of the Russian Federation, chief editor of the magazine “Arsenal Fatherland” Victor murakhovski believes that Azerbaijan is a relatively small price can purchase PTRC North Korea.
— The DPRK and sold them Yemen, and Iran, and Saudi Arabia. Republic sells although and older complex, based on outdated technologies, but the R-17 is quite efficient and a few hundred kilometers of flying. Example — the actions of the rebels in Yemen. Azerbaijan will not be the first nor the last, if you purchase a PTRC by the DPRK.
But such a transaction essentially will not change the situation in the region. If the parties were serious forces aviation, then the complexes can be used for strikes on airfields. But such objects, critically influencing the outcome of the war, in fact, not. But, nevertheless, in the case of negative developments in Azerbaijan can apply the complexes to strike at the rear of the object, especially if it’s a go-ahead from the United States and the direct support of Turkey.
— In a non-nuclear version of Azerbaijan can quite happily buy and OTR in China, and in Pakistan, and the NATO countries, for example, in Turkey, — said the former head of the Main Department of international military cooperation of the defense Ministry, Colonel-General Leonid Ivashov.
— But still to use missiles will not be easy, because in this situation, Russia will be obliged to defend its ally, for such a weapon brings the conflict into the category of a major war. Therefore, in the case of Azerbaijan obtained the PTRC will also need to either supply Armenia missiles up to the “Iskander-M”, or to increase the striking force, as well as strengthen the Russian 102nd base in Gyumri. Russia must do everything to the armed conflict in Karabakh was not renewed, and it needs to maintain the balance of power.
Deputy Director of the Institute for political and military analysis Alexander hramchihin also believes that Azerbaijan absolutely freely can purchase PTRC at least four potential sellers — Pakistan, China, Turkey and Israel.
— It can not deliver problems of Armenia, as shooting can be carried out on its rear objects, including cities and enterprises. In this case, the balance of power Armenia will at least require Russia to put her PTRC “Iskander-M”, as they say for quite some time, and also — air defenses, for example, s-300PM (export version of s-300PMU-1), and better than s-400. Ground-based air defense of Armenia currently includes 3 divisions (36 PU) s-300PT and 2 divisions (24 PU) s-300PS (in addition to s-75, s-125, SAM “Circle”). S-300PS can shoot down ballistic missiles, but the question is, what kind of PTRC will be purchased by Azerbaijan. I am convinced that a great war over Karabakh inevitable — no other way this issue can not be resolved, and in the great war of missiles is a good thing, especially in relation to this conflict PTRC long-range strategic weapon.
Military expert, retired Colonel Mikhail Khodarenok says that theoretically, Azerbaijan may acquire the operational-tactical missile systems with a range of over 500 km.
— 500 km — this restriction, which is imposed only on Russia under the Treaty on the elimination of intermediate and shorter-range missiles (INF Treaty). While Azerbaijan and the country’s potential sellers of weapons not constrained by any agreements. In this sense, the Azerbaijanis can purchase a PTRC with a range of up to two thousand kilometers of Iran. Another thing that blows high-explosive warheads are effective only when they are applied with high accuracy at stationary targets — airfields, command posts, communication centers, large stores, etc. this means that acquiring such weapons, you need to buy the appropriate reconnaissance to pinpoint the objects to hit.
Since the purchase PTRC — it’s not cheap, it is likely that Azerbaijan will be limited to one missile brigade, and this is 12-18 PU. By and large, similar shocks will have a strong moral-political significance, but from a military point of view, attack a limited number of missiles with high-explosive WARHEAD is unlikely to lead to a breakthrough in military operations.
The Armenian side has OTR R-17 (“Scud”) with a range of 250-300 km. it is Clear that Azerbaijan is interested in buying systems with much greater range. Certainly some consultations and negotiations are already underway, but they are hardly known to us because, until then, it is the subject of the military and state secrets. But in General, Azerbaijan has a desire to possess such a class of weapons and, most likely, it will be implemented.
