The Director of the analytical Department of “Alpari” Alexander Razuvaev doubts that the Central Bank of the Russian Federation at the meeting on March 18 will lower the key rate, which now stands at 11% per annum.
“The rate has remained unchanged since August last year. However, it is likely that the regulator will make a hint of its easing in the future,” — said in comments the expert.
He points out that “while the volatility of commodity markets is quite high, there are still risks the devaluation of the ruble and inflation”.
“—Says Razuvaev, is the real sector of the Russian economy is already adapted to new external conditions. We expect growth in oil prices to $50-60 for the summer and, accordingly, strengthening of the ruble.”
As the analyst notes, “the strengthening of the ruble will have a positive impact on inflation, allowing the Central Bank to reduce the key rate”. However, the expert agreed, “it’s a pretty optimistic scenario”.
At the previous meeting of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia, which took place on 29 January 2016, the regulator has kept the key rate at 11%, explaining that “increased the risk of acceleration of inflation and deterioration in the global commodity markets will require further adaptation of the Russian economy”.
Last year, the Central Bank reduced its key interest rate 5 times.
