The Russian economy continues to decline, but the rate of its movement to the hypothetical bottom, according to official statistics, this year slowed down significantly. Today Rosstat reported that Russia’s GDP in the first half of 2016 fell by 0.9% in the year terms. Granted that’s not as depressing as the previous year, when the recession was 3.7%.
In the second quarter of 2016 GDP, according to Rosstat, amounted to 0.6% compared to the same period last year. This corresponds exactly to the preliminary estimates of the RF Ministry of economic development, published in July. In the first quarter of this year GDP was down by 1.2%.
Also, Rosstat reported today about the decline in investment in fixed capital in Russia in the first half-year by 4.3% year on year to 5.3 trillion roubles. The decline of investment in 2015 was 8.4%.
The baseline forecast the MAYOR, which is calculated based on the average price of oil at $40 a barrel in 2016, the GDP could be 0.2%. In the third quarter the dynamics of the economy may be zero, and in the fourth even small growth is possible in the case of a favourable external environment.
At the same time, the experts of VEB more pessimistic: they predict a fall in GDP in 2016 to 0.6-0.7% on weak investment and consumer demand and reduced government spending.
Earlier this month, Rosstat reported that Russian industry with the start of the second half returned to the decline, which in July was the strongest since the spring of last year. The decline in industrial production month-on-month by 0.9%, while in annual terms – by 0.3%. The worst result in July showed manufacturing sector, the recession that year reached 1.5% after three months of growth. This film could not compensate for even traditional for the Russian Federation the increase in mining.
