The head of “Rosneft” Igor Sechin at the Eurasian forum in Italy, said that the production of shale oil has good chances of going on “a trajectory of moderate growth”. At the same time top managers of major Russian oil companies noticed that this growth will not be “explosive” character, as in 2013-2014. While the shale boom will be a regional factor in determining the balance of oil and oil products on the market of the United States.
In the next year and a half we should see the completion of the period of excess supply in the market and the beginning of normalization of the situation with commercial oil reserves, — said the head of “Rosneft”.
But in the near future, despite the low recovery rate of oil production in the United States, the overall level of the Americans is less than the maximum index of the previous year.
— The prospects of the Americans in these developments, of course, is, — said the head of “Finance and Economics” Institute of contemporary development Nikita Maslennikov. — Such projects for several years, more than ten. They emerged at the peak of oil prices, when urgently required an alternative solution to the fuel problem for those countries that were depending on oil imports.
United States the problem promptly solved. In Canada it proceeded much more complicated, because there is the cost of production is quite high. The Americans have the situation in the shale plays, we can say, unique, as they have observed (in addition, of course, the overall structure of the economy) a relatively high level of competition in this area.
We must remember that slate is not dozens of companies and hundreds. It is clear that this business konsolidiruyutsya. But, nevertheless, makes itself felt sufficient number of competing manufacturers. And if there is competition, there will be a high proportion of the technological component.
Igor Sechin is absolutely right when he says that oil from shale deposits in the US would be quite viable at 40-45 dollars per barrel. Because as soon as Brent went into the range, immediately began increasing the number of drilling rigs in the Northern U.S. States. Sechin also, in my opinion, eye for true trend — today the main regulator of the level of oil production and its prices become American slates. From the inclusion of their production depends on the range and the level of world oil prices.
“SP”: — do Not you think that the recent increase in the statements of the American oil industry and for wider business circles in the US about the “offensive” us shale is similar to a bluff on some verbal intervention?
— Still a considerable part of analysts of the world oil market and the actors themselves, not without reason believes that the prospects for growth in the shale deposits of the United States is really high (if to reject the inevitable in these cases the “promotion”).
Moreover, all possible effects that follow after the decision on freezing of raw material extraction by the OPEC countries can be instructive. Namely, as soon as the freeze will signal about itself, the price of oil stabiliziruemost in the corridor 50 — 55 dollars. Will be increasing the intensity of shale production.
— Us shale dust in the eyes allowed for a long time, — says the representative of the expert Council of the Union of Industrialists of Russia, Eldar Kasaev. And in this process it would be useful to separate the wheat from the chaff: all shale deposits in the USA and other countries, which also tried to develop industrial at (however, nothing of this plan they have not yet happened), it is highly exaggerated.
Moreover, the question price here is quite debatable. Not so long ago passed the information that the shale deposits in the United States is profitable at a price of $ 80 per barrel. Now most say $ 50. Third sources reported that in some cases 40 or even $ 25 per barrel will be enough to develop shale reserves. The question arises: why all of a sudden starts bankruptcy of companies? I note also that stated many of my colleagues and information that Saudi Arabia has stopped supplying its oil to the United States because of the fact that there is shale revolution gathered momentum, simply not true.
As an expert on the Middle East I can assure you: the Saudis deliver oil to the United States, only in smaller quantities. In fact, it turns out that while the US did not have enough volumes of “black gold” and to cover the needs of the domestic market. Especially for the foreign market where American producers threatened to expose the “bandwagon” of Russia. And with gas they would not mind to do such manipulations, but for now it’s just rhetoric and debate.
The shale industry in the United States, of course, evolving. The main area of extracting from them — Texas and North Dakota. There are different costs. But the average 55 — $ 60 per barrel. Of course, you can’t call that life for American Industrialists, for them it is rather — survival. Fresh statistics indicate that commercial stocks of crude oil are decreasing. For traders it was a surprise, although it is a natural result.
Low oil prices are kept long enough, with a small rebound upwards. But the fact remains — since the summer of 2014 began a serious decline. Let me remind you, there were about 115 dollars per barrel. And now for all the fun, when the price creeps to $ 50 — $ 55.
Investments in shale projects have been reduced, the so-called hedging (i.e. insurance of risks of falling oil prices) is already eroding. Now no one will insure the risk because the price of raw materials is too low.
The shale industry is still warm, but slowly the end is coming. The acclaimed shale revolution, about which so much is said Americans will turn counter-revolution. I talked about this a few years ago, and now the prerequisites for its occurrence there.
“SP” — And does not threaten Russia, this revolution?
— Yes, we have oil shale projects, but due to the fact that their profitability is low in our climatic and geological conditions, they are not in such scale as in the United States. In this context, we focus on the extraction of “black gold” in the traditional way, not by cracking.
I will emphasize that from the terminological point of view of the observed long-standing confusion, and was responsible, above all, journalists. It is incorrect to say “oil shale”. There are oil shale — minerals giving in the dry distillation of a significant amount of resin, similar in composition to the oil. Has the technology of drilling horizontal and vertical. So, in shale deposits uses a horizontal method and used hydraulic fracturing. Pumped a lot of fluid with the chemicals that are getting into soil and water, polluting them. In America, by the way, going to protests and public men, but it is often silent media.
Why not put on stream, the development of shale deposits in its territory the Germans and the French? Yes, because due to the influence of the shale industry on the environment from the bad quality of beer and champagne. And that these drinks mean to these people, you know, I think everybody.
