Cost of oil prices grow up a little, as “the Kremlin” I optimism. The Minister of economic development Ulyukayev, speaking before the state Duma, fell into euphoria and said that the second quarter of 2016, will show the growth of production and GDP. It turns out, according to Ulyukayev, the Russian economy is already adapted to the crisis, and no sanctions and such troubles her more is not terrible. “We were able to reduce costs, focus on serious priorities, to make use of the factors that has never been used, and for the real economy impact was the most insignificant,” – enthusiastically spoke of Putin’s Minister, giving the audience of his monologue to guess that “priorities”, “factors” and “consequences” he has in mind.
Meanwhile, the only thing that has changed recently – emerged some strengthening of the ruble, due solely to the increase in oil prices. No merit “Kremlin”. Still everybody knows that Russian ones currency and the whole economy depends solely on the market value of the black gold.
Despite the rosy forecasts speaker, independent economists claim that the Russian economy faces multi-year financial and macroeconomic crisis. Prolonged systemic banking crisis economists call the implementation of at least one of three factors: the panic of Bank depositors, large-scale gosvlivaniya banking system and the persistence of low quality of the banking system, in which the share of non-performing assets exceeds 10%. In the Russian Federation implemented all of these features.
In January 2016 once again it took a massive infusion into the banking system by the Agency for Deposit insurance in connection with the insolvency of Vneshprombank and the Bank “Intercommerz”. Poor asset quality also remains. Factor in the tightening of the banking crisis is worsening and the employment situation of the population. Rising unemployment decreases the ability of the borrowers to pay back previously borrowed loans, and also may increase the propensity of private investors to the banking panic.
But the dollar fell as much as a ruble, so now Ulyukayev all these problems are not terrible. From next year, as he States, one should expect that the reduction in the outflow of capital beginning of investment growth and the return of real incomes and retail trade turnover in the region of positive values. The improvement of these indicators, according to his assurances, will eventually lead to the release of the positive dynamics of the GDP to 2.5%. However, the speaker could take from the ceiling and any other appropriate number.
His statements look especially ridiculous against the background of reality, not even suggesting a minimum growth of real incomes of the population. On the contrary, they continue to fall. Moreover, in Russia there is not even speculative prerequisite for any economic growth. The system of government is such that no one will invest in Russian ones assets, especially given the rumors about increasing debt load, increasing pressure on business and planned tax increases.
Positive forecasts “Kremlin” combined with actions aimed at deterioration of the crisis. While more expensive, they do not increase the minimum subsistence level, but rather cut it with up to 10000 9452 roubles. This “effective” manipulation allows them to reduce social benefits and pension allowances. The official explanation, as always the original – in the fourth quarter of 2015 was allegedly recorded the cheapening of food prices in the consumer basket. Officials referred to some seasonal decline in vegetable prices, without taking into account the growth of prices for all other products, commodities and utility services.
It is clear that from the point of view of “the Kremlin” this is such a clever way to save on the poor. But this also means that there are no other opportunities to bring the ends they have, and also makes transparent their lies about the adaptation to the crisis. When the economy really grows, to Rob the needy no one will. Even the “Kremlin”.