Yesterday came the news, which is unlikely to have left someone out of a team of well-wishers of the Russian Federation indifferent, and it was dubbed the term for which enough proven oil reserves for 28 years.
In addition, such information came not from the lips of any third parties, which could be called “fifth column” and to anathematize, and from the head of Ministry of Russia Sergey Donskoy. The prospect is not rosy, given the fact that available oil in Russia there are up to 14 billion tons, and the production will start to fall from 2020.
In other words, the “Golden period” of hydrocarbons ends, and where to go – is not entirely clear… But maybe will try to anticipate prospects for the future rising from our knees?
Alternative sources of energy. Today, traditional sources of energy fade into the background, and the whole civilized world is looking for a replacement. And looking for highly successful, unlike the same Russia. And if the EU give preference to wind and solar energy as a future alternative, and China has our highest priority in future five-year plans the development of the geothermal potential of the country, Russia has no such alternatives.
In the quarter century of its existence, it has not developed any successful direction in the energy sector, which would not have been the legacy of the USSR. But because of the approaching energy crisis she will be unable to reimburse on the market for alternative sources. Hardly available for 28 years in the reserve, it will make a significant breakthrough in this field in order to compete with world leaders. Industrial potential.
Deprived of income from oil sales, which represents almost 50% of the filling the country’s budget, Russia will need some way to compensate for this black hole. But that’s the dilemma that new production, bridging the gap, today in the Russian Federation no. And even the most profitable industries such as the defence industry is gradually losing ground in the global market. Contracts increasingly frustrated, the product quality does not satisfy customers.
Thus, to compensate for the failure would have nothing, and, given the long recovery process after the sanctions (after all when be, Yes they will be removed), the crisis will last at least a decade. The seizure of new territories. No longer able to produce the necessary resources, Russia likely will do what it does best – an uncontrolled and Intrusive expansion into areas that are rich in raw materials.
In this case it is more than likely that she will head North into the Arctic. In principle, it is now headed full steam ahead.
Now Russia is claiming the Arctic ridges Lomonosov, Mendeleev, Gakkel and the hollow of Submariners, settles in the region of their bases, KP, a network of radar and air defense groups. But this is today and tomorrow appetites depleted the Federation can grow, and growing like mushrooms, the Arctic group is simply wrong with the circuit. Destabilization of oil-producing regions. Russia during the 28 years she can put a maximum of efforts in order to destabilize the oil producing regions, which will lead to higher prices for raw materials and the last drop will go “expensive”.
Moreover, the strategic scope is very wide, from nearby Azerbaijan, to manipulate the ambitions of Iran, will plunge into chaos entire region. Life without oil.
Many believe that without oil Russia is facing collapse and disintegration. I will allow myself that assumption to disagree and support will appeal to Madame history. Today Russia is the largest country in the world, even after the collapse of the USSR.
But the greatest conquest in the history of Muscovy and then the Russian Empire, were implemented under Ivan the terrible. After him no ruler could not so globally to increase the territorial expanse of the state and, notwithstanding any political and economic disasters, these boundaries are major changes had. So will the Federation collapse without oil? Economic. But statehood was preserved in a much more dark times, if remained, loyal to and controlled by the head of the country’s political elites, or they were in a constant state of stress is fear. And the people?
And the people have always been hard to control opinion and consciousness that especially now brought in a closed from the outside world of the Russian media space to the absolute. And if within the next 28 years will not happen in this country high quality political or social transformation, will be oil in the interior or not, the essence of the aggressive, predatory nature of Russia will not change.