Rustem Falyakhov
Sergey Pyatakov/RIA “Novosti”
In 2017, the ruble strengthened against the dollar, although the oil price and will not grow. The United States, if not canceled, it will soften their sanctions. But the Russian economy is still not going to help GDP growth will be zero, which, however, will not jeopardize the re-election of Vladimir Putin for a new term, predicts Saxo Bank.
Danish Saxo Bank has established itself as an author of shocking predictions scored again extreme predictions for the coming year. Time for prediction was selected the worst possible — the day of the presidential elections in the US, two hours before the voting. But Bank chief economist Steen Jakobsen, who came to Moscow from Copenhagen on the presentation of the forecast, said that he foresees victory trump. He was clear that in March, argued Jacobsen.
Even then he knew who this trump, the economist said, if you take Karl Marx and breed it with the heads of Central banks of leading countries, “then we get the trump.” Jacobsen showed the corresponding picture in the presentation. Central bankers there was a picture in the form of collective photos, and photos of trump with long tousled bangs. From this observation, Jacobsen makes the first shocking forecast.
The United States mired in recession
“A strong dollar combined with the intention of the fed to raise rates at a meeting in December of this year virtually guarantees the us economy recession,” — said Jacobsen.
However, this is not the worst that awaits America. Trump’s victory in the elections in the United States “can very quickly turn into a massive political coup and put an end to the monopoly of Republicans and Democrats, led to the introduction of social protest against globalization, openness and trade.”
According to Jacobsen, trump defeated only because the United States had violated the social contract: the government promised the Americans out of the crisis and new prosperity. But over the last few years, the situation has not improved.
The opposite happened: “the poor have become poorer and the rich richer, inequality has increased, Americans voted for change, for trump, while 18 months ago it seemed impossible.”
The negative consequences of a victory trump is not limited to the American economy. The recession in the world’s largest economy will lead to a new shock to the global economic slowdown.
The world economy will slow down
Even a possible global recession, predicts Jacobsen. “Our forecasts SaxoStrats mean a recession in the US amid growing fiscal deficit, which will become apparent towards the end of this year, this recession will not leave politicians, you will have to use a fixed long-term yields (as in Japan) and the notorious helicopter money”, — the expert predicts the Bank.
This is an allusion to the saying attributed to the former head of the Federal reserve Ben Bernanke, calling to throw money from helicopters to stop deflation and stimulate economic growth (the image taken from the Nobel laureate Milton Friedman). For Russia, the forecast is not very good.
Zero growth in 2017
According to Jacobsen, he analyzes the situation in Russia for 10 years.
According to the economist of Saxo Bank, “in the last 20 years here, nothing has changed, therefore, to give forecasts on the economy of Russia is very easy.”
Economic reforms as there was no and no. All plans for reforms are limited to conversations.
It seems that so happens and this time, no matter what reform program will write to Alexei Kudrin, who heads the government. “How can you build muscle if you don’t go to workout at the gym and drink protein shakes” — ironically Jacobsen. However, not all the predictions of Jacobsen regarding the future of Russia so pessimistic. There are pleasant surprises.
Sanctions will weaken
“The sanctions likely to be lifted, not all, but at least part of them, already in 2017, which will have a positive impact on the economy,” said Jacobsen. The lifting of sanctions will accelerate the growth of Russia’s GDP by 1 percentage point per year, which will enable him to zero. In this he agrees with the same Kudrin.
The ruble will strengthen
The easing of sanctions and the eventual removal of restrictions on the access of Russian companies and banks to international capital markets, in turn, will improve the prospects of the ruble. “Winning trump for the ruble creates more constructive conditions than it would be with the victory of Clinton, for which Russia was the enemy,” says Jacobsen.
According to his forecast, the dollar exchange rate to end the year, but in 2017 the dollar will weaken and will be in the range of 58-60 RUB.
Dollar shows weakness against other currencies, says Jacobsen. But assuming that the price of Texas WTI crude oil will remain approximately at current levels. In 2017, oil will be traded in the range of $62-65 per barrel, although it is possible to reduce the cost at the end of this year to $35-40.
Another incentive for the strengthening of the ruble again associated with the winning trump. The fed can’t raise its key interest rate in December because in the first months of the presidential campaign will have a negative impact on the US economy. “The fed was late to the party, the rate should have been increased even in the summer, it’s too late,” says Jacobsen.
But the weakening of the U.S. currency will revive first, the market of oil and gold, and then the real economy.
Kick and happy ending
“In the end all will be well with the global economy in future years. Because trump is not a solution to the problems, but it is a powerful kick, it is a stimulant of change” — makes unexpected a conclusion the expert.
Not all of the Saxo Bank predictions come true. Of these predictions are unlikely to come true more than one or two, admits Jacobsen. But he believes that the world has reached the final stage of the paradigm, dominant since the global financial crisis. “Traveling around the world in the last 12 months, I realized that the world markets are in a sense at the end of the road,” Jacobsen insists. Now, he believes, a new paradigm, and should prepare for the fact that along with the growth of the marginal cost of money will increase volatility and uncertainty.
