June 17, Chinese President XI Jinping will begin a five-day tour of the countries of Central and Eastern Europe and Central Asia to promote the initiative “One belt, one road”, which is considered one of the main priorities of the current Chinese leadership. New silk road needs to create a common economic space and prosperity throughout Eurasia. The project, however, there are opponents: they believe that the idea of such a scale is almost impossible to implement with the participation of the States, not comparable to economic and political potentials. .<url>” talked with experts and learned the value of the project, at what stage he is now and whether a new transport artery that will replace the caravans of antiquity, will benefit the entire region and Russia in particular.
Timofey Bordachev, Director of the Eurasian program of the international discussion club “Valdai”
Economic zone of the silk road (the silk road economic belt is a major politico-economic initiative is potentially very significant, but not yet filled with any practical and conceptual content, is a completely unexamined. It’s loud slogan, a kind of datsibao on the wall of Chinese politics, but is still a slogan with no practical plan of action.
The official purpose of the initiative — together with Russia and countries throughout Eurasia to build a common space of development and prosperity. However, participants have and their interests. China needs to handle their operations — primarily in the field of road construction and logistics activities — outside the country, where they left work, as in China, by and large, everything is built.
Other partner countries in the “silk road” is a different problem. It consists in the fact that China did not bring workers with their cement, and provided local employment, whether Tajiks, Uzbeks or Kazakhs — and at the same time compensated for the weaknesses of the local economy, underdeveloped or injured from the decline in energy prices.
Chinese President XI Jinping (left) and the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev
Photo: Shamil Zhumatov / Reuters
If to speak about Russia, we must combine the Chinese offer and our demand. Russia should use the potential of China to create jobs in Kazakhstan and Central Asia, and to stabilize the region, because otherwise in ten years there might be pockets of instability and we may have to get involved in the armed conflict in the territory.
Now on our side, the most important is the role of the Eurasian economic Commission, which is preparing a draft agreement between the EEC and China. This agreement should be a collaboration tool. In the end, the initiative of silk road economic belt could contribute to socio-economic stability of Central Asia if the investment will create jobs there. For Russia it is beneficial.
I believe that in the future the project can be implemented if all parties will work together and if it’s not the point of the proposal and investments, and working together with understanding query of the entire region.
Alexei Bezborodov, head of Infranews
For me important to point out the specific plans for implementation of SREB in life. Today there are two existing routes that can be involved in the project. One goes through the Russian far East, the TRANS-Siberian railway through Moscow and the European part of Russia to the West. The other from Western China through Kazakhstan, back through Russia to the West.
Others only think, for example, there is an option to transport cargo from China to Kazakhstan and across the Caspian sea and the Caucasus to Turkey or Georgia. Another option is to pave the way through Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan — there is a railway, but it is loaded less than on tenth of a percent, to the same ends 800 km from Tehran and is also, in fact, not working.
Of these four routes, in fact there are only three attempts to study the “Central route” fails due to the strange efforts of representatives of Georgia, Azerbaijan, Ukraine and Turkey. But from the point of view of price, organizational, administrative, customs while thoroughness there.
Russia in the framework of this initiative, in any case, working on yourself. Not so important how much will increase the number of containers that a TRANS-Siberian railway through Kazakhstan, it is imperative that it will grow. This will allow the Russians engaged in these projects, to develop, to form, to study the container business.
Transportation by rail distant from the seas of the city can be cheaper sea routes
Photo: Nadolinski Eugene / “Kommersant”
In this matter it is difficult to separate politics from economy, but it is incorrect to say that shipping is now cheaper. Deliver the container on the TRANS-Siberian railway from China to Moscow for the same money as the sea. And not only in Moscow but also in Bratislava and a number of cities in Eastern Europe. So I think the silk road economic belt very promising and useful project for Russia.
Andrey Karneev, Deputy Director of the Institute of Asia and Africa of Moscow state University
SREB — a huge project involving dozens of countries and the scale creates some difficulties. Each of the States cling to their sovereignty. Even within the EU there are sharp contradictions on certain issues, but here individual country, are not all of one accord.
Therefore, the first group of risks is the ambiguity of the political landscape and interests of China and partners in the silk road economic belt. It is assumed that this “silk road”, that is, all States should be partners in the chain must have a common denominator. Of course, at this stage, this denominator is the economic power of China and its willingness to invest heavily in infrastructure. With this ready to agree — at least in words — all governments. But problems may arise with the direct implementation of the project.
The second group of problems is economic. How all these investments will be profitable? From the outside the progress of China, for example, in the construction of highways is admirable — even ten years ago it was impossible to imagine that China can build Railways in developed countries. However, the inside is also heard criticism: and will be repaid all invested in the project billions or even tens of billions of dollars?
Railway bridges over the river Bureya in the Burejskom district of Amur region
Photo: Igor Ageenko / RIA Novosti
Deng Xiaoping — the Chinese superintendent of the reform were taught to start small, to test innovations at the local level and then spread above. All we know about the Chinese economic miracle, developed below, in accordance with the principle of “crossing the river, ewupawly kicking stones”. So another risk of the project is its gigantic scale. It is unclear how all link together and lead to a consensus.
Another point: Deng Xiaoping in addition to economic reforms, has introduced a alternation of power, and now the country’s leadership is renewed every ten years. SREB calculated for decades, and it is unclear whether the successor to XI Jinping as interested in this project.
Still, I think in the end will be implemented the national average. Maybe it will be not a megaproject, but some money will be invested in projects of modernization of different types of communications, and China is really close to the neighbors on the West and South, and its economy is more closely integrated into the world.
