Experts believe that Turkey would be limited to angry rhetoric and diplomatic gestures
The Bundestag adopted a resolution that recognizes the slaughter of Armenians in the Ottoman Empire in 1915 as genocide. Experts predict an emotional response of Ankara, but believe that the real deterioration of relations between Turkey and Germany is not going to happen.
The resolution, which was tabled following the collective request of the ruling majority and the Green party, supported by the majority of MPs, and one MP voted against and one abstained.
“The destruction of Armenians in the Ottoman Empire during the First world war was the biggest catastrophe that resulted in enormous consequences in the millennial history of the Armenian people. Because the deportation and mass extermination, according to independent estimates, cost the lives of more than a million Armenians. Numerous independent historians, parliaments and international organizations say the persecution and annihilation of Armenians a genocide”, — said in the document, which cites RIA Novosti.
First the Armenian genocide was recognized by Uruguay in 1965. His example was followed by Russia, France, Italy, Belgium, Poland, Switzerland, Greece, Canada, Argentina and a number of countries and 44 U.S. States, the European Parliament and the world Council of churches.
Turkey traditionally rejects the accusations of genocide. Earlier Ankara has threatened that the recognition of genocide would complicate relations with Germany. However, experts doubt that the Turkish authorities will dare to quarrel with one of the leaders of the EU.
As told “Izvestia” Fadi hakura, an analyst at the London analytical center “ChathamHouse”, despite the emotional reaction of the Turkish leadership, resolution of the Bundestag will not affect Turkish-German relations.
– Turkey’s reaction will be very harsh. Ankara very angry about the decision of the German Parliament, but the Turkish Prime Minister has already made it clear that it will not affect the agreement on illegal migrants, he said.
According to him, Turkey reacts very emotionally to all the cases of recognition of the Armenian genocide, but she always goes back on their word, especially when talking about a strong country like Germany or the USA.
For example, when Russia recognized the genocide, Turkey did not withdraw its Ambassador, as in the case with the Vatican or Austria, ” says hakura. – For Turkey, Germany is a very important economic partner, so that Ankara is unlikely to carry out their threats.
The interlocutor of “Izvestia” added that it is not necessary to link the vote in the Bundestag and the friction between the EU and Turkey on visa-free regime.
Is not a manifestation of discontent on the part of Merkel. The Chancellor tried to postpone the vote, but she had to obey the opinion of Parliament and its members, ” explains hakura.
Turkish expert Kerim has from the International center for strategic studies, also believes that Turkey would be limited to angry rhetoric. He stressed that parliaments should not make decisions concerning historical facts, and this is not a case of third countries. This decision of the Bundestag will only complicate relations between Turkey and Armenia.
– Dissatisfaction expressed in the rhetoric will be harsh statements, but practical steps should not fear. Turkey has already recalled its Ambassador for consultations. This will stop, ” says the analyst. – Turkish and German economies interdependent. Furthermore, it is now one of the most difficult periods in Turkish foreign policy. Many security threats, the Syrian crisis, difficult relations with Russia.
According to Kerim has, the parliaments of third countries take such decisions, using the fact that Turkey has no leverage over these countries.
German policy considered the moment favourable for such a decision, hoping for a weak reaction that Turkey will not be able to impose sanctions, for example, to cancel the visa-free regime for citizens of Germany, – says the source “Izvestia”.
